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That Coveted 5th Seed

You get to host a game against the 12 seed (Boise?) and then you play the 4 seed (ACC or Big 12 who cares). Its just a free pass to the semis if you just play decent. So how do we get there? First, beat UF and MSU, obviously. Now lets assume that every time someone ahead of us loses, they fall behind us, which moves us up 1 spot. So here's how to make it happen-

1. Georgia over Tennessee. Tennessee goes behind us, Georgia stays behind us, and we're at 10.
2. Kansas over BYU. Vegas knows. We go to 9.
3. Ohio St hammers Indiana. The Committee should no longer feel the need to protect Indiana. We go to 8.
4. Minnesota over Penn State. Row the boat. We go 7.
5. USC over Notre Dame. Lincoln Riley earn your money. We go to 6.
6. Texas loses to A&M or in the SEC Championship Game or Alabama loses in the SEC Championship Game to Texas or Oregon convincingly over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game.

So there are about 9 or 10 ways to get there, and in each case the team that we need to win is either favored or is not less than a 7 point dog. We're going to be a 7 pt favorite against Florida and a 20 point favorite against MSU. Everybody ahead of us has much more difficult games ahead of them.

The 6 seed would be great too, because if you win the 6/11 game, you get the 3 seed (ACC or Big 12 who cares).

Now is the time to double down on NIL

I have read and listened to a lot of reaction from fans about withdrawing their NIL contributions due to us losing a couple of games. I do not say this with any judgement or condescension at all, but that is the worst strategy we could possibly employ at this point. Consider these facts and assumptions:
1. We were able to hold off a very real potential suitor for CLK in Auburn due in part to:
A. A sizable commitment by our fans and big donors to The Grove Collective.
B. A demonstration that we have the resources and the enthusiasm to pull in the same direction.
C. A well organized, concentrated effort to attract and sustain a top quality roster.
2. How do we think pulling our support now will end?
A. Are we going to improve our roster through depletion of funds and unity of commitment?
B. Are we going to show our TOP 10 Coach that we are committed to this for the long term? Was being a one hit wonder our goal?
C. Will this unstable outlook encourage CLK to stay for the long term?
3. Who is the one school in the conference that has fought against this sweeping change in the NIL age? Hint: they share our state.
A. How have things turned out for them?
B. Why do we think such a mindset and approach would turn out any different for us?
C. Do we really want to separate from them, or are we ok with falling back into a yearly battle for next to last place?

That is a sampling of the 2nd and 3rd order effects that would transpire if we were to pull our support for NIL now. IMHO, such an action is short sighted and small minded at best and self destructive and emotionally unstable at worst. When stock prices drop, what are we told to do? BUY!!! Now is the time to BUY, BUY, BUY! Invest now! Ok, stepping off soapbox now.

ESPN Playoff predictor (Texas and Tenn)

I was curious, since a lot of people are saying they want Texas and Tennessee just to win out to eliminate Georgia and Texas A&M.

I looked at both of those and projected the opposite about 10 times each just to see what kind of field was projected.

Every time, when I projected a 10-2 Tennessee with a loss to UGA, it projected them to finish behind us. Same for Texas if I projected them to finish 10-2 with a loss to A&M.

Point being, I don’t think it really matters with those two games. If I had to bet, the loser of UGA-UT and the loser of Texas-A&M will both finish below us if we close out the season at 10-2.

From The Athletic this morning: "The team no one wants to face: Ole Miss"

If you don't already, go subscribe to The Athletic. Their content is above the other national outlets.

But I'll share the Ole Miss excerpt.

Article link

“If you ask me right now which team I’d least want to face, it’s Ole Miss,” said an SEC defensive coordinator of a Top 25 team. “They’re now the most talented defensive team in the league. They have all these difference-maker pass rushers and a true lockdown corner in Trey Amos.

“They just got all these dudes up front. Three guys in the top five of sack leaders in the SEC (Suntarine Perkins, 10 sacks and No. 1; Princely Umanmielen, 9.5 sacks and tied for No. 2; and Jared Ivey, 7.5 sacks and tied for No. 5). That’s crazy! (J.J.) Pegues was a featured guy for them last year; he’s still really good (11.5 TFLs, two sacks) and he’s not even one of their top three! Walter Nolen is also really good. An inside guy with four sacks is pretty dang good. It’s really impressive.”

The other part of this that multiple SEC assistant coaches noted was that Ole Miss beat up Georgia even though the Rebels were without their best player Tre Harris, a wide receiver who has been dealing with a lower-body injury. Harris’ 141 yards per game leads the country.

Last Saturday the Rebels held Georgia to its fewest points of the Kirby Smart era (10), its fewest total yards in seven seasons (245) and its fewest rushing yards since 2021 (59). Ole Miss leads the SEC in yards per play allowed in games against ranked opponents among the 14 teams who have faced at least two Top 25 opponents. Last year, the Rebels were dead last in the SEC at 7.81 YPP in those games.

To say Ole Miss has a ferocious defensive front is an understatement. It’s why defensive line coach Randall Joyner, a Larry Johnson protege, is making a good case to get Broyles Award consideration. That award is given nation’s top assistant, but of course, Rebels defensive coordinator Pete Golding is also making a compelling case. Ole Miss has 23 more TFLs than anyone in the SEC (103) and 18 more than anyone in the country. It also has 13 more sacks than any other team in the SEC.

Four players already have double-digits in TFLs, and Ivey is close at 9.5. Last year, they only had one guy in double digits (Ivey with 11.5) Eight Rebels have at least four TFLs.

A big piece of that impact is due to the commitment Ole Miss made this offseason to upgrading their talent in the trenches through the portal.

Umanmielen, who transferred from Florida, and Nolan, who transferred from Texas A&M, were the big headliners. But other transfers are making a statement: top tackler Chris Paul Jr. (74 tackles, 10 TFLs) from Arkansas; second-leading tackler T.J. Dottery from Clemson; Amos from Alabama; and defensive back John Saunders from Miami (Ohio). Some current leaders transferred three years ago, like the 325-pound Pegues (Auburn), Ivey (Georgia Tech) and linebacker Khari Coleman (TCU).

The 6-foot-4, 255-pound Umanmielen has had 11.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks in his last six games has emerged as a dominant force for the Rebels.

“His quick get-off is phenomenal,” a Rebels coach told The Athletic this week. “He sets them up where he wants to counter them, sometimes with a spin move, or he will go speed-to-power rush at times. One of the (Georgia) tackles overset too quickly because he was so worried about Princely’s speed rush, so (Umanmielen) countered him with a spin move and was able to get a sack. He’s very smart and does a good job of studying the opposing tackles. He picks them apart.”

Umanmielen only played one snap in a 29-26 loss to LSU due to injury.

“If we had him, we win that game,” said that Rebels coach.

The 6-1, 210-pound Perkins, a former five-star recruit, has been another nightmare for offenses.

“He’s so freakin explosive. He’s one of the best QB spies in the country,” said the Rebels coach.

“He is stronger than you think at the point of attack for being a lighter guy,” said a rival SEC DC who has seen a lot of Ole Miss on crossover film. That coach has been very impressed with the job Golding has done this year. “They run more games than he used to at Alabama. He’s been really aggressive on first and second downs and he has really cut that D-line loose.”
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