Watching the pod and wanted to put what
@Chase Parham is trying to explain into words.
Current CFP Rankings - Ole Miss @ 12th:
https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx?year=2023
- Teams "locked in" to the NY6 barring massive upset: #1 Georgia, #2 Ohio St, #3 Michigan, #4 Washington, #6 Oregon, #7 Texas, #8 Alabama, #11 Penn St
- Teams in danger of falling out due to upcoming schedule: #5 Florida St, #9 Mizzou, #10 Louisville
- Teams that could jump in due do upcoming schedule: #13 Oklahoma, #14 LSU, #15 Arizona, #16 Oregon St, #17 Iowa
- At Large Bids: #23 Tulane, #25 Liberty, unranked SMU
So, with this information, here are the scenarios that would both get Ole Miss in and would keep Ole Miss out. Obviously, if the Rebs lose the Egg Bowl then this entire thread is a moot point but here we go...
#1 ACC: Rebs need the ACC to not have a CFP representative AND only 1 ACC team ranked in the top 12.
How can this happen?
- Need Florida St to lose at least one of their next 2 games (@ Florida, ACCTG vs Louisville).
- Need Louisville to lose at least one of their next 2 games ( vs Kentucky, ACCTG vs Florida St).
Best case scenario?
- Florida St and/or Louisville loses this weekend and the higher ranked of the 2 in next week's poll wins the ACCTG
Worst case scenario?
- Florida St beats Florida and Louisville and gets into the playoff. Regardless, the highest ranked ACC team not in the playoff is guaranteed a spot in the NY6 so Louisville would be in regardless barring them getting passed by #22 NC State or #24 Clemson. Regardless, this is bad for the Rebs.
#2 PAC12: Rebs need Oregon and Washington to win this weekend. Period.
How can this happen?
- Just need Oregon to beat Oregon St and Washington to beat Washington St. Oregon St winning this weekend would be the biggest issue.
Best case scenario?
- Both the Ducks and Huskies win. Would guarantee a rematch in the PAC12TG.
Worst case scenario?
- Either or both of Oregon & Washington lose this weekend. This would cause both to drop in the polls but the likelihood of both still being ranked higher than OM is very high. Would probably push OM back in the rankings due to the committee wanting to push up Oregon St.
#3 SEC: This one is sneakily important because there are only so many SEC teams that are going to be allowed to be in the NY6, imo. This isn't about deserving or not, this is about the fact that the committee is going to want more regionality given the parity this year. Just need UGA & Bama to win this weekend and that should take care of any funny business.
How can this happen?
- Just don't need the chaos to come from UGA or Alabama. If either were to lose, it would be absolutely fatal to the Rebs resume.
Best case scenario?
- UGA-Bama SECTG. Winner doesn't matter. Mizzou loses to Arkansas.
Worst case scenario?
- Bama loses to Auburn but beats UGA next weekend. Mizzou beats Arkansas. This would push the SEC out of the CFP and all 3 would remain ahead of OM in the rankings (Yes, Bama would drop after a loss to auburn but a win over UGA would skyrocket them back up).
#4 B1G: Need Michigan/Ohio St to win the B1GTG.
How can this happen?
- Don't need any upsets next weekend in the B1GTG.
Best case scenario?
- Ohio St wins this weekend and crushes Iowa next week in the B1GTG. This would push Michigan down slightly and eliminate any chance of Iowa jumping the Rebs. Also, a Penn St loss to Michigan St this weekend would be a big cherry on top.
Worst case scenario?
- Iowa winning the B1GTG. Iowa would leapfrog a bunch of teams, including OM, and it would possibly knock out the B1G from the playoff meaning there would be 4 B1G teams likely ranked higher than OM.
#5 BIG 12: This one is complicated but I think what works best for OM is for Texas to win out but be left out of the CFP. I don't think there is any way that Texas would fall below OM in the polls barring back 2 back losses. Just want them to win out.
How can this happen?
- Texas beats Texas Tech this weekend, as it would guarantee their spot in the BIG12TG and would *likely* deny Oklahoma that opportunity.
Best case scenario?
- Texas wins out but finishes 5th in the ranking keeping them out of the CFP. An Oklahoma loss to TCU this weekend would be an added bonus.
Worst case scenario?
- Texas and OU win this weekend and end up in the BIG12TG, Oklahoma wins again. This wouldn't drop Texas below Ole Miss in all likelihood but would jump Oklahoma over the Rebs.