Before I jump in the car and head to Fayetteville, here are some thoughts and notes, as we've reached the conference portion of the season.
Ole Miss is 18-1 on the season and No. 6 nationally per Baseball America. That record ties the 2004 team for best start under Mike Bianco and is more than enough to put the Rebels in hosting position should conference play go well. I said before the season Ole Miss couldn't go worse than 20-6 in out-of-conference play and expect to host, so the Rebels are definitely poised to finish better than that with seven games remaining ? Mississippi State, USM (2), Arkansas State (2), Memphis and St. Louis.
It's way too early to look at this, and I'm sorta being counterproductive even mentioning it, but Ole Miss is No. 10 in the RPI. Even when it doesn't matter, it's better to be high. However Austin Peay is No. 7 and Furman is 11, so it is what it is at this point. In short, if Ole Miss finishes above .500 in league play, the Rebels are in the discussion. 17-13 or better, and it's likely a lock. 18-12 brings in national seed possibilities. Obviously a long way to go, but Ole Miss has succeeded with the preliminary work.
It starts with Arkansas this weekend, and you just never know this early on. The Razorbacks have tested themselves in the nonconference and are somewhat bloody because of it. The four-loss weekend in Arizona stung the Hogs, but Dave Van Horn is an exceptional coach and he's already tinkering to fix the issues. They've simply been unable to hit and score runs. Dominic Ficociello has been dealing with an injury all season and is out this weekend. That's good news for Ole Miss, as he's been deadly against the Rebels in past seasons.
Numbers say all three games will be somewhat low-scoring, and both teams have shown excellent bullpens. Saturday is Ole Miss' best advantage with Mike Mayers facing Randall Fant, and the Hogs would be favored on the money line on Sunday with Ryne Stanek against Sam Smith. It's imperative Ole Miss get after the Arkansas starters. The Hogs' bullpen with Barrett Astin and Colby Suggs is very, very good and a main reason why UA was No. 1 nationally in at least one poll to start the season.
Ole Miss needs UA Friday starter Trey Killian to act like a freshman and freak out a little, but he's been electric so far. SEC openers are a different character than the nonconference games, and Bobby Wahl's experience is why I predict the Rebels to get two this weekend, but Killian can be dominant and frustrate Ole Miss. It could go either way.
When looking at the schedule, the beginning and end are the tough parts for Ole Miss, with a stretch in the middle that can be good to the Rebels. A 6-6 record after the first four weekends would be just fine, as Ole Miss starts at Arkansas, A&M at home, at Florida and Vanderbilt at home. Then get on a roll against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn before playing the rivalry series, MSU and LSU, to end the year. Like last year, Ole Miss needs to lock up some of its goals by the last weekend because the Rebels haven't won a series in Baton Rouge since the early 80s.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Vanderbilt at Auburn: The Commodores are probably the best team in the country right now, and Auburn is good but definitely nothing great. The Tigers are simply hoping for a regional berth, and that's not guaranteed. The 'Dores could get off to a sweep this weekend, but Auburn probably grabs one at home to keep things respectable.
LSU at MSU: This is one of the two intriguing series along with Ole Miss at Arkansas. LSU seems to be very similar to Ole Miss with two excellent starters and enough of an offense, while MSU has arms for days but hasn't been tested. Jacob Lingren had a mild injury last week but will start for the Bulldogs tonight. The matchup is MSU's offense against the Tigers' pitching. I'll take the Tigers to get two in Starkville.
Tennessee at Alabama: UT coach Dave Serrano overhauled that roster in year two, and the Vols are just 9-7, but the competition has been good with UNLV, Notre Dame and Arizona State on the slate. Alabama has lost seven of its last nine and simply can't score right now. This is an opportunity for UT to get off on the right foot.
Kentucky at Florida: Kentucky has been excellent but hasn't played anybody. Florida hasn't been good against anybody. The Gators are 8-10 overall and have lost series to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana so far. Ace Jonathan Crawford hasn't won a game yet, and Florida has scored eight runs or more just twice this season. This screams Kentucky 2-1, but Kevin O'Sullivan is a great coach, so surely the Gators find a competent lineup at some point.
Georgia at Texas A&M: Georgia is 8-9 and had the worst nonconference of any team in the league. TAMU is still struggling to replace two first-round arms from last year. The Aggies will get a couple I think, but A&M seems outside the big four in the SEC West.
South Carolina at Mizzou: Well, there's no snow on the field, so that's a plus. I've ragged on the Tigers all year, and while it's deserved, Mizzou has a nice program. The Tigers have been to regionals eight of the last 10 years and won the Big XII Tournament in 2012. It's just a down year for them and a bad time to have it. South Carolina is going to win the series, but Missouri will bite someone before the year is up.
SOME NUMBERS
Arkansas has stolen 25 bases in 28 attempts this season. That's a matchup to watch this weekend.
Speaking of Stuart Turner, he leads the league in RBI, doubles and total bases and is second in hits.
Austin Anderson and Auston Bousfield are second and third, respectively, in runs scored. Anderson still hasn't struck out in 85 plate appearances. That's as impressive as it sounds.
Will Jamison is getting better at the plate. His contact percentage is up to 64 percent from below 50 percent, and he's walking in 18 percent of his plate appearances to lead the team. He's also using all fields better, which is critical for him considering his skill set.
Ole Miss needs Will Allen to get going, and there are a couple signs that's likely. His contact percentage is up to 80 percent, and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .268. That's about 50 points below what is expected, so as he keeps putting it in play, his average should rise.
Andrew Mistone has quietly been a quality at-bat machine toward the bottom of the order. He's hitting .328, putting the ball in play 92 percent of the time, walking 14 percent of the time (second on team), and is third on the team with a .432 on-base percentage.
Tanner Bailey hasn't allowed a run in 11.2 innings this season.
This post was edited on 3/15 7:39 AM by Chase Parham
Ole Miss is 18-1 on the season and No. 6 nationally per Baseball America. That record ties the 2004 team for best start under Mike Bianco and is more than enough to put the Rebels in hosting position should conference play go well. I said before the season Ole Miss couldn't go worse than 20-6 in out-of-conference play and expect to host, so the Rebels are definitely poised to finish better than that with seven games remaining ? Mississippi State, USM (2), Arkansas State (2), Memphis and St. Louis.
It's way too early to look at this, and I'm sorta being counterproductive even mentioning it, but Ole Miss is No. 10 in the RPI. Even when it doesn't matter, it's better to be high. However Austin Peay is No. 7 and Furman is 11, so it is what it is at this point. In short, if Ole Miss finishes above .500 in league play, the Rebels are in the discussion. 17-13 or better, and it's likely a lock. 18-12 brings in national seed possibilities. Obviously a long way to go, but Ole Miss has succeeded with the preliminary work.
It starts with Arkansas this weekend, and you just never know this early on. The Razorbacks have tested themselves in the nonconference and are somewhat bloody because of it. The four-loss weekend in Arizona stung the Hogs, but Dave Van Horn is an exceptional coach and he's already tinkering to fix the issues. They've simply been unable to hit and score runs. Dominic Ficociello has been dealing with an injury all season and is out this weekend. That's good news for Ole Miss, as he's been deadly against the Rebels in past seasons.
Numbers say all three games will be somewhat low-scoring, and both teams have shown excellent bullpens. Saturday is Ole Miss' best advantage with Mike Mayers facing Randall Fant, and the Hogs would be favored on the money line on Sunday with Ryne Stanek against Sam Smith. It's imperative Ole Miss get after the Arkansas starters. The Hogs' bullpen with Barrett Astin and Colby Suggs is very, very good and a main reason why UA was No. 1 nationally in at least one poll to start the season.
Ole Miss needs UA Friday starter Trey Killian to act like a freshman and freak out a little, but he's been electric so far. SEC openers are a different character than the nonconference games, and Bobby Wahl's experience is why I predict the Rebels to get two this weekend, but Killian can be dominant and frustrate Ole Miss. It could go either way.
When looking at the schedule, the beginning and end are the tough parts for Ole Miss, with a stretch in the middle that can be good to the Rebels. A 6-6 record after the first four weekends would be just fine, as Ole Miss starts at Arkansas, A&M at home, at Florida and Vanderbilt at home. Then get on a roll against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn before playing the rivalry series, MSU and LSU, to end the year. Like last year, Ole Miss needs to lock up some of its goals by the last weekend because the Rebels haven't won a series in Baton Rouge since the early 80s.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Vanderbilt at Auburn: The Commodores are probably the best team in the country right now, and Auburn is good but definitely nothing great. The Tigers are simply hoping for a regional berth, and that's not guaranteed. The 'Dores could get off to a sweep this weekend, but Auburn probably grabs one at home to keep things respectable.
LSU at MSU: This is one of the two intriguing series along with Ole Miss at Arkansas. LSU seems to be very similar to Ole Miss with two excellent starters and enough of an offense, while MSU has arms for days but hasn't been tested. Jacob Lingren had a mild injury last week but will start for the Bulldogs tonight. The matchup is MSU's offense against the Tigers' pitching. I'll take the Tigers to get two in Starkville.
Tennessee at Alabama: UT coach Dave Serrano overhauled that roster in year two, and the Vols are just 9-7, but the competition has been good with UNLV, Notre Dame and Arizona State on the slate. Alabama has lost seven of its last nine and simply can't score right now. This is an opportunity for UT to get off on the right foot.
Kentucky at Florida: Kentucky has been excellent but hasn't played anybody. Florida hasn't been good against anybody. The Gators are 8-10 overall and have lost series to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana so far. Ace Jonathan Crawford hasn't won a game yet, and Florida has scored eight runs or more just twice this season. This screams Kentucky 2-1, but Kevin O'Sullivan is a great coach, so surely the Gators find a competent lineup at some point.
Georgia at Texas A&M: Georgia is 8-9 and had the worst nonconference of any team in the league. TAMU is still struggling to replace two first-round arms from last year. The Aggies will get a couple I think, but A&M seems outside the big four in the SEC West.
South Carolina at Mizzou: Well, there's no snow on the field, so that's a plus. I've ragged on the Tigers all year, and while it's deserved, Mizzou has a nice program. The Tigers have been to regionals eight of the last 10 years and won the Big XII Tournament in 2012. It's just a down year for them and a bad time to have it. South Carolina is going to win the series, but Missouri will bite someone before the year is up.
SOME NUMBERS
Arkansas has stolen 25 bases in 28 attempts this season. That's a matchup to watch this weekend.
Speaking of Stuart Turner, he leads the league in RBI, doubles and total bases and is second in hits.
Austin Anderson and Auston Bousfield are second and third, respectively, in runs scored. Anderson still hasn't struck out in 85 plate appearances. That's as impressive as it sounds.
Will Jamison is getting better at the plate. His contact percentage is up to 64 percent from below 50 percent, and he's walking in 18 percent of his plate appearances to lead the team. He's also using all fields better, which is critical for him considering his skill set.
Ole Miss needs Will Allen to get going, and there are a couple signs that's likely. His contact percentage is up to 80 percent, and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .268. That's about 50 points below what is expected, so as he keeps putting it in play, his average should rise.
Andrew Mistone has quietly been a quality at-bat machine toward the bottom of the order. He's hitting .328, putting the ball in play 92 percent of the time, walking 14 percent of the time (second on team), and is third on the team with a .432 on-base percentage.
Tanner Bailey hasn't allowed a run in 11.2 innings this season.
This post was edited on 3/15 7:39 AM by Chase Parham
