1. Ole Miss lived by the last-second shot on Thursday night in Florida and then lost by it on Saturday night in Oxford.
Jarvis Summers' 15-footer back-rimmed in the final seconds, allowing Arkansas to get out of Tad Smith Coliseum with a 71-70 win and sole possession of second place in the Southeastern Conference.
The loss to the Hogs came at the end of a high-level basketball game between two teams capable of making runs in March. Someone had to win; someone had to lose. Arkansas had two extra days' worth of rest, and their fresh legs showed late.
However, there was a cause for concern for Ole Miss this week. At Florida, Summers scored just two points. On Saturday night, the senior point guard scored seven points in 27 minutes, shooting 2-for-7 from the floor, missing both 3-pointers he tried and making three of four free throws.
Worse, Summers appeared tentative Saturday night. Up 70-69 in the final minute, Summers passed up on a shot late in the shot clock, sending the basketball to defensive specialist Martavious Newby. Newby faked a 3-pointer and then drove to the rim before missing a layup, setting up Arkansas' game-winning possession.
Summers made 51.1 percent of his shots from inside the 3-point arc last season. This year, Summers is making just 38.8 percent of the same shots. He's scored in double-figures just once in Ole Miss' last five games.
"In that type game, sometimes instincts just take over," Ole Miss coach Andy Kennedy said. "Obviously, it's been well-chronicled, his struggles offensively, and maybe he's just thinking someone else can make a play for us. I'm sure it was just an instinct thing for him."
Kennedy said there's "no question" Summers is hesitant right now.
"We've tried to do some things to get him to his strength," Kennedy said. "We'll continue to do that."
If Summers can return to something resembling the form he had the previous two seasons, Ole Miss will be dangerous in March. The Rebels are getting contributions from multiple players, and Stefan Moody is having an All-SEC-caliber season. The frontcourt has become a strength. LaDarius White is capable of lighting up an opponent on a given night. Terence Smith and Anthony Perez provide excellent minutes off the bench.
For Ole Miss to go deep into the tournament, however, it needs Summers. His progression over the next four weeks is perhaps the most compelling story line inside the program.
2. The NCAA tournament will be seeded four weeks from today. There's no way to project the field without predicting a lot of games. I actually believe Ole Miss is only going to lose one more regular season game --- Feb. 28 at LSU.
If the tournament were seeded today, Ole Miss would likely be a No. 10 seed. I still think the Rebels could play their way to a No. 7 or 8 seed, but that's probably as high as they'll get.
Because of those early losses, Ole Miss doesn't have a lot of room for error. It can't afford horrible losses --- Thursday at Mississippi State would qualify as one --- but if it takes care of business, four weeks from today is going to bring good news to Oxford.
3. Ole Miss won at Florida on Wednesday, adding yet another road scalp to its impressive collection. According to KenPom.com, winning on the road is more common these days than in previous seasons.
There has been recent discussion over at ESPN.com regarding the decline in home court advantage in the NBA. It turns out the same effect exists at the college level. The trend, per KenPom.com, is unmistakable: Home teams are winning fewer games than they did 15 years ago --- about 2.5 percent worth in absolute terms.
"This mimics what's happening in the NBA and one can imagine that an analysis going back farther would show that, as with the professional level, this trend extends farther back in time," Pomeroy wrote on his blog. "It's interesting that nobody, to my knowledge, has offered a theory that it's easier to win on the road than it used to me and yet it's clearly happening. Then again, if we can't see home court advantage in an individual game, it's not surprising we wouldn't notice how it changes over time."
Per KenPom.com, through last Sunday's games, home teams in conference play have gone 1,114-753 for a winning percentage of 59.7. Pomeroy hypothesizes the change in winning percentage for road teams is a result of travel gradually become easier across the college game.
"As athletic budgets continue to outpace inflation with the seemingly endless stream of TV money coming into the sport, programs have been able to upgrade their mode of transit accordingly," Pomeroy wrote on his blog. "Teams that previously bussed everywhere are taking more flights. And teams that used to depend on commercial flights are taking more charters.
"Across the college hoops universe, this is something that would steadily improve over time, fitting with the evolution of the trend we see. It is not difficult to find tales of how chartering makes it easier to battle the road. …The other factor that appears to be playing a role in reducing home-court advantage is the decreasing pace of play. Fewer possessions could mean fewer chances for the home team to exert its advantage. Data from the past 15 seasons shows a relationship between pace and home court winning percentage.
"Pace and travel aren't the only two factors that affect home court advantage. Presumably, crowd size and officiating plays a role. And there's a consistently higher home court advantage for teams that play at altitude. However, pace and travel are things that have been changing over time, and thus are candidates to explain the increasing success of road teams. But this is a complicated issue with many avenues of future research."
4. Shreveport (Calvary Academy), La., quarterback Shea Patterson will announce his college decision on Tuesday at noon at his school. I'm planning to be there, and not just so I can pass through my hometown of Ruston and get some Johnny's Pizza and Counter Culture yogurt.
I expect Patterson will commit to Ole Miss, giving the Rebels their most significant commitment since Robert Nkemdiche --- and maybe since Eli Manning. Many analysts believe Patterson will have an impact on multiple other decisions.
Could Patterson pull Willie Allen to Ole Miss and away from LSU and/or Alabama? Could Devin White follow Patterson to Oxford? Those are just two of the many questions we expect to be asking after Tuesday afternoon.
I'll have time to formulate and express my opinion, but Rivals.com's Jason Howell has known Patterson and followed his recruiting much longer than I have. I solicited his thoughts on the matter early Sunday. Here's his answer:
"Patterson's commitment is definitely going to have an impact," Howell said. "The Rebels already have a strong 2016 class coming together, but Patterson adds another dimension to the class. It has been a long time since Ole Miss has had a centerpiece like the five-star Patterson to build around, and he has already established relationships with several top prospects in the 2016 recruiting class. His commitment may not guarantee commitments from other top prospects but it will definitely make them a more attractive option. It will also help that Patterson plans to be a vocal recruiter and already has the trust and respect of several top talents."
5. Ole Miss baseball took two of three games from William and Mary over the weekend in Oxford. The Rebels won the opener on Friday and then split a weather-forced doubleheader on Saturday. As you know by now, I leave the analysis to Chase Parham. It's his beat; no one does it better.
However, if there were questions from the first weekend, they would likely center around the health of starting pitcher Sam Smith and the options Mike Bianco might have to explore if Smith is hurt and/or ineffective for long. Sean Johnson, a likely candidate to start down the road, pitched one strong inning Saturday. Jacob Waguespack was exceptional in his five-inning outing in relief of Smith in Saturday's loss, allowing just one unearned run. Bianco described Johnson as "still a little tender." Obviously, Ole Miss will have to be cautious there.
Again, it's too small of a sample size to read anything into anything, but Smith's next outing will likely have a little stronger magnifying glass on it after Saturday.
6. In case you haven't heard, this here website has a daily podcast, The Oxford Exxon Podcast powered by RebelGrove.com. On Tuesday morning, the podcast will welcome Ole Miss athletics director Ross Bjork to the show for the first time (it's our fault; we took a while to extend the invitation). Anyway, I've never plugged the podcast before on 10 Thoughts, but I thought you'd like to know. You can download the podcast right here on the site, on iTunes or on the Rebel Sports Radio app.
7. If you're still seeking some proof that college athletics have more than a couple of resident village idiots, check out item No. 7 on a 10-point list for NCAA reform ideas that Pac-12 presidents and chancellors sent their Power Five colleagues last May.
"7. Address the "one and done" phenomenon in men's basketball. If the National Basketball Association and its Players Association are unable to agree on raising the age limit for players, consider restoring the freshman ineligibility rule in men's basketball."
As CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon reported earlier in the week, "several conference commissioners say it's time to consider making freshmen --- or at least some of them --- ineligible, again, for the first time since the NCAA rule changed in 1972.
"One-and-done players in men's basketball are the main reason some commissioners want this discussion to occur, and it's not clear whether freshman eligibility interest would decrease should NBA commissioner Adam Silver get his way by pushing the NBA's age limit from 19 to 20 years old."
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott said several commissioners are "pushing" for freshman ineligibility. As Solomon wrote, there are "many unanswered questions, of course. Would scholarships have to be added and increase costs? Would all freshmen have to sit, or only those who do not reach an academic benchmark? Would this only be for basketball, or for other sports as well? Would athletic skills become rusty without competition? Is the idea only to better prepare athletes academically or is it to also integrate them socially? Does freshman ineligibility even accomplish one or both of those goals? Could this idea help repair the widening cracks in the NCAA's model, which is being threatened by many sides?
"The opposition to freshman ineligibility would be heated --- and some conference commissioners strongly oppose it already. Others believe now is the time to consider it again given court cases that could allow players to be paid, congressional scrutiny into college sports and a unionization attempt to make Northwestern football players designated as employees. A new lawsuit against the NCAA and North Carolina attacks the heart of the NCAA's stated mission: Are enough high-profile college athletes truly being educated?"
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told CBSSports.com freshman ineligibility would have a "profoundly positive effect" on football and men's basketball by easing the transition from high school without the distractions of competition."
He's wrong. The idea is wrong. It's ludicrous. It's anti-American. I could go on, but I'll save it. If the commissioners who talked to Solomon have their way, there will be time for a debate on the matter.
8. Spring training gets going in the next few days in Arizona and Florida. Much of the offseason news in the National League Central has come from the Chicago Cubs, with moves like the signing of pitcher Jon Lester and the acquisition of manager Joe Maddon.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams isn't ready to raise the white flag and concede the division title just yet.
"They're not going to beat us," Adams said with a smile during the Cardinals Caravan annual stop Friday afternoon at Hammons Field in Springfield, Mo. Adams made the trip to Springfield along with fellow big-leaguers and Springfield Cardinals alums Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, plus alums Kerry Robinson and Jason Simontacchi (the new Springfield pitching coach) and play-by-play voice John Rooney.
The Cubs have stolen headlines while the Cardinals have fumed. Their bid for a title last season ended in a five-game loss to the eventual World Series champion Giants.
"I think (the motivation) is huge," Adams said. "Going in and playing with a chip on your shoulder and knowing that we didn't finish it out like we wanted to. Everybody is hungry and can't wait to get down to spring training and get this season going."
The Cardinals open the season in Chicago on April 5.
"That's going to be a lot of fun," Adams said. "They had a great offseason and should be better. But we always play each other tough. It'll be fun opening the season at Wrigley on Sunday night."
9. The NBA played its all-star game Sunday night in New York. The stretch run of the season begins later this week, with teams jockeying for playoff position and trying to get healthy. I'll do these again when the actual playoffs are set to begin, but here are my predictions for the playoffs as of today:
Eastern Conference:
Atlanta over Miami in 5
Toronto over Charlotte in 6
Chicago over Milwaukee in 5
Cleveland over Washington in 6
Western Conference:
Golden State over Oklahoma City in 7
San Antonio over Memphis in 7
Portland over Los Angeles Clippers in 7
Houston over Dallas in 7
I'm still going with Golden State over Chicago in the NBA Finals, though I can honestly see Cleveland winning the East and Oklahoma City, Memphis, San Antonio and maybe even Portland winning the West.
10. If this sports writing thing doesn't work out, I'm moving to Montana. I have a new purpose in life. I want Montana state representative David Moore out of office before he can ruin all of our lives.
Last Tuesday, Moore introduced a bill into the House Judiciary Committee that seeks to ban yoga pants and speedos.
According to the Billings Gazette, the proposal "would expand indecent exposure law to include any nipple exposure, including men's, and any garment that 'gives the appearance or simulates' a person's buttocks, genitals, pelvic area or female nipple.'"
Further, the republican from Missoula said tight-fitting beige clothing could be considered indecent exposure under his proposal.
"Yoga pants should be illegal in public anyway,' Moore told the Billings paper.
Moore said that he'd have no issue with people getting arrested for their clothing, but that police would have to use their discretion.
Death to you, Representative Moore! How dare you? Do you not love America, baseball and apple pie? Do you embrace communism? Why would any red-blooded, America-loving, flag-waving, happy human being attack yoga pants?
No, sir. I want to find the man who invented the yoga pants and give him a holiday. There were miles during the Chicago Marathon spent admiring yoga pants. There was one particular wearer of yoga pants who served as a pace-setter of sorts for a few early miles. Passing her and leaving her behind (I mean that literally and figuratively) was a sad moment on that cool, crisp Chicago morning.
Anyway, let's get to Billings and get Moore out of power before he can implement such sweeping change on our lives.
Bonus: It might not be as difficult to win on the road in college basketball anymore, but the student section at Arizona State is doing its part to make winning in Tempe tough for opponents.
Opposing players, when they go to the free throw line, encounter a myriad of the bizarre: A shark attack, he return of Elvis, twerking farm animals, a shirtless guitarist, kissing unicorns, an old lady yelling at you to get off her lawn.
Just as a visiting player is about to shoot a free throw, two students pull apart two big black curtains --- The Curtain of Distraction --- to reveal a new five-second act in a continuing theater of the absurd.
The most striking aspect of the routine, though, isn't any of the bizarre characters. It's the result. The story is linked for your reading pleasure.
Have a great week.
This post was edited on 2/15 8:57 PM by Neal McCready
The Curtain of Destruction
