With the first day of the MLB First Year Player Draft just five days away, it's a good time for a refresher course on how the new format works and also what's going on with Ole Miss' top signees.
Concerning the A list signees, I don't know much good news. As has been known for a while, Gavin Cecchini will be in New York for the first night of the MLB Draft. He has an invitation to be on the MLB Network set and be there when his name is called. Obviously that means a team will take him somewhat quickly, and as I'll explain in a second, that means he's very likely to begin his professional career this summer. The scuttlebutt is that Cecchini should be off the board by 17th pick (Blue Jays). Do weird things happen? Sure, but he's looking for a sizable signing bonus and he'll likely be able to get his number easily if he is gone by then. The 17th pick slot recommendation will be more than $2 million I hear.
Ty Hensley is the guy that has shot up the board over the past few months. Most expect him to come off the board in the mid-to-late first round. The thing to remember is that nothing is in a vacuum. If some other prospect falls to a team that was going to take Hensley, then he could drop or not get offered what is thought to be the bonus right now. However, what scouts project as an offer to Hensley is somewhat close to what he is asking for, so that's bad for Ole Miss. Obviously you want those numbers as far apart as possible. An organization isn't going to lose a prospect over $50,000.
Stryker Trahan is the interesting one. Huge tools make him a possible first rounder, but the tools haven't produced crazy numbers to this point. It's hard to pin down where he's going to go, but I think Ole Miss needs him out of the top 50 picks to start becoming hopeful. With the new format, every pick in the top 50 will get at least $1 million -- before taxes, of course.
It looks like Zach Irwin will either go in the Draft or he'll enroll at Meridian Community College in the fall. His academics are the issue. It's a blow to the Rebels because they need some left-handed arms, and he was the best one of the bunch. However, this doesn't appear to be unexpected or out of left field. My guess is that the staff has known for a while that his eligibility was in doubt.
After that, Ole Miss is in pretty good shape. I know it's somewhat of "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" but it's what I've got. The way the Draft format is set up, the elite players will still receive excellent signing bonuses and are likely to sign. But after that, more kids should enroll in college. Ole Miss has to have that occur here, as Brady Bramlett, Chase Nyman and Jacob Waguespack are vital to the success of this class. It's a small, solid class, but it relies a little much on JUCO kids and if you lose the four up top I mentioned, it lacks ratings star power. In saying that, I love Waguespack, Nyman and Cameron Dishon, but I'm also keeping it real here.
Here are things to know about the Draft:
The Draft has been reduced from 50 round to 40 rounds. This helps Ole Miss with guys like Tanner Mathis, who could jump at a late-round offer.
Each team gets a budget for the first 10 rounds of the Draft -- with the total budget the sum of the slot recommendations of all of a team's picks in the top 10 rounds. They can pay whatever to each individual pick inside the top 10 rounds, but the overall total has to be at or under budget by the end of the 10th round to avoid penalties.
If a team fails to sign a player in the first 10 rounds, budget is reduced by the assigned value of his pick. It can't reallocate that value to sign other players. However, it can reallocate the difference between a player's bonus and the value of his choice. This is why I say is a player is taken in the first round, the drama is over. He's signing. Teams aren't going to lose the highest number out of its budget.
After the 10th round, the max amount a player can sign for without penalty is $100,000. If a team gives a player above that after the 10th round, the excess either comes out of the budget of the first 10 rounds or the team will have to pay a luxury tax and possibly lose future picks.
Not only has the signing deadline moved from Aug. 15 to mid-July, it will be at 5 p.m. rather than midnight ET. The 2012 deadline is July 13. We'll know quickly, in other words.
Teams get an extra year of protection for compensation picks for failure to sign draftees from the first three rounds. For example, the Blue Jays get the 22nd pick in 2012 after not signing No. 21 overall choice Tyler Beede in 2011. If Toronto can't come to terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013.
Some of this is probably confusing, and I may have even screwed some detail up. If you have questions, post them, and I'll do my best.
This post was edited on 5/30 8:15 AM by Chase Parham
Concerning the A list signees, I don't know much good news. As has been known for a while, Gavin Cecchini will be in New York for the first night of the MLB Draft. He has an invitation to be on the MLB Network set and be there when his name is called. Obviously that means a team will take him somewhat quickly, and as I'll explain in a second, that means he's very likely to begin his professional career this summer. The scuttlebutt is that Cecchini should be off the board by 17th pick (Blue Jays). Do weird things happen? Sure, but he's looking for a sizable signing bonus and he'll likely be able to get his number easily if he is gone by then. The 17th pick slot recommendation will be more than $2 million I hear.
Ty Hensley is the guy that has shot up the board over the past few months. Most expect him to come off the board in the mid-to-late first round. The thing to remember is that nothing is in a vacuum. If some other prospect falls to a team that was going to take Hensley, then he could drop or not get offered what is thought to be the bonus right now. However, what scouts project as an offer to Hensley is somewhat close to what he is asking for, so that's bad for Ole Miss. Obviously you want those numbers as far apart as possible. An organization isn't going to lose a prospect over $50,000.
Stryker Trahan is the interesting one. Huge tools make him a possible first rounder, but the tools haven't produced crazy numbers to this point. It's hard to pin down where he's going to go, but I think Ole Miss needs him out of the top 50 picks to start becoming hopeful. With the new format, every pick in the top 50 will get at least $1 million -- before taxes, of course.
It looks like Zach Irwin will either go in the Draft or he'll enroll at Meridian Community College in the fall. His academics are the issue. It's a blow to the Rebels because they need some left-handed arms, and he was the best one of the bunch. However, this doesn't appear to be unexpected or out of left field. My guess is that the staff has known for a while that his eligibility was in doubt.
After that, Ole Miss is in pretty good shape. I know it's somewhat of "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" but it's what I've got. The way the Draft format is set up, the elite players will still receive excellent signing bonuses and are likely to sign. But after that, more kids should enroll in college. Ole Miss has to have that occur here, as Brady Bramlett, Chase Nyman and Jacob Waguespack are vital to the success of this class. It's a small, solid class, but it relies a little much on JUCO kids and if you lose the four up top I mentioned, it lacks ratings star power. In saying that, I love Waguespack, Nyman and Cameron Dishon, but I'm also keeping it real here.
Here are things to know about the Draft:
The Draft has been reduced from 50 round to 40 rounds. This helps Ole Miss with guys like Tanner Mathis, who could jump at a late-round offer.
Each team gets a budget for the first 10 rounds of the Draft -- with the total budget the sum of the slot recommendations of all of a team's picks in the top 10 rounds. They can pay whatever to each individual pick inside the top 10 rounds, but the overall total has to be at or under budget by the end of the 10th round to avoid penalties.
If a team fails to sign a player in the first 10 rounds, budget is reduced by the assigned value of his pick. It can't reallocate that value to sign other players. However, it can reallocate the difference between a player's bonus and the value of his choice. This is why I say is a player is taken in the first round, the drama is over. He's signing. Teams aren't going to lose the highest number out of its budget.
After the 10th round, the max amount a player can sign for without penalty is $100,000. If a team gives a player above that after the 10th round, the excess either comes out of the budget of the first 10 rounds or the team will have to pay a luxury tax and possibly lose future picks.
Not only has the signing deadline moved from Aug. 15 to mid-July, it will be at 5 p.m. rather than midnight ET. The 2012 deadline is July 13. We'll know quickly, in other words.
Teams get an extra year of protection for compensation picks for failure to sign draftees from the first three rounds. For example, the Blue Jays get the 22nd pick in 2012 after not signing No. 21 overall choice Tyler Beede in 2011. If Toronto can't come to terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013.
Some of this is probably confusing, and I may have even screwed some detail up. If you have questions, post them, and I'll do my best.
This post was edited on 5/30 8:15 AM by Chase Parham
