The MLB First-Year Player Draft begins Sunday with selections through the 36th pick and then rounds two through 10 on Monday. Round 11-20 are Tuesday. Due to the five-round draft a year ago, many more players are draft eligible than usual, and a typical draft is 40 rounds, so it's still only half the size of a non-pandemic one.
As a reminder, each choice in the first 10 rounds comes with an assigned value, with the total for a club's selections equaling what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value gets subtracted from his team's pool. So, teams don't often risk a top-10 round pick unless it knows the player will sign and bypass college. That's how highly projected players end up not getting drafted or get drafted very late -- they aren't likely to sign anyway.
If a player signs for more than $125,000 after the 10th round, the amount over that number gets taken from the team's allowance for the first 10 rounds. Confused? If so ask questions below and I'lll do my best to explain it. Now on to the players.
Jackson Jobe - RHP, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Jobe has been a highly thought of prospect for a while, but he's exploded in the past months and is inarguably the top high school pitcher in the draft. With a fastball in the upper 90s and a slider spin rate of more than 3,100, a lot of scouts have him graded higher than Jack Leiter. Jobe could go as high as No. 3 and shouldn't fall outside No. 11 or so. Jobe has moved to campus in case something goes wrong with the draft, but he's expected to sign as a top-10 pick. The only miracle for Ole Miss -- and you never want a kid to fall on draft night -- is that teams worry about taking high school right-handers at the top of the draft. But Jobe has silenced those worries, and there's not any buzz about some last-minute buyer beware. Jobe, should something unlikely happen and he shows for school, is draft eligible again in 2023. Ole Miss fans should start paying attention if his name hasn't been called through the top 10, but his signability doesn't seem to be a case of scaring teams off in that 5-12 range -- slot values at five to 12 go from $6.18 million to $4.36 million.
Gunnar Hoglund - RHP, junior
Hoglund was poised to be a top-10 pick prior to his elbow injury, likely headed to Colorado at No. 8. There are some mixed thoughts on where Hoglund goes now, though a scout told me this week he still expects top 20-25 with the possibility of a little higher as teams just aren't scared of Tommy John anymore. The top 25 picks are all slotted at more than $2.7 million, and that's a sizable amount more than Hoglund was offered out of high school. Keith Law had him falling out of the first round. I haven't heard that from anyone, and I really hope it's not the case. I'm pulling for Hoglund to make a lot of money tonight.
Doug Nikhazy - LHP, junior
Nikhazy is a unanimous first team All-America selection and should hear his name called sometime tomorrow, likely getting chosen in the second or third round unless one team believes in him and take an earlier shot to guarantee it gets him. The production is unparalleled, as he was arguably the best starter in college baseball this season, though the Vandy duo got the PR points that led to Golden Spikes love. Scouts worry about his size and if he can hold velocity pitching every five days instead of every seven days. Pitchers without velocity get dropped in today's scouting climate. But I expect Doug to pitch in the Big Leagues for a long time. It's about getting outs and he does that.
Tim Elko - INF, junior
Outside of Jobe, Elko is the player to watch in the Draft. He's weeks removed from an ACL surgery, but that's not a detriment to his draft stock. He doesn't have a defensive position that scouts point to, but he can obviously hit, he a great character guy and there's enough SEC production to believe the bat can translate. But he's not looking at any huge signing bonus. He could as early as the back half of the top 10 rounds, though remember it's about money, not even necessarily round, and a lot of teams use picks 7-10 to value buy players and save bonus pool money to overpay someone else. The most likely thing is Elko is taken on day three and offered $125,000,$150,000. Industry sources don't expect him to take that, though there's constantly been a thought that Elko would decide to go ahead and start his pro career when the paper is put in front of him. I say 60-40 he comes back, but if he signs, I won't be surprised at all. He's absolutely the biggest swing option this week as it pertains to helping Ole Miss next season.
Kevin Graham - OF, junior
Justin Bench - UTIL, junior
I'm lumping Graham and Bench together. Both have indicated they are coming back to school barring some unexpected dollar offer. Both can get drafted if they want to sign for $100,000, but there's been little word that that's something they are interested in. I expect them both back in Oxford next season. If Ole Miss loses one of those two, it'll be an upset and bad news.
Dylan Delucia - RHP, Northwest Florida
Ole Miss is excited about the junior college right-hander, and I think he shows up and don't really even hear much buzz that he won't, but JUCO draft situations are weird, so he's at least worth mentioning. It would take him signing for low six figures and I don't think that happens, but I've seen crazier things over the years. Ole Miss needs quality arms in the worst way, and Delucia is likely a piece of that next season.
The only other incoming player that could be buzzy is Tupelo lefty Hunter Elliott, but he has a high price tag, and I've heard zero worry about him bypassing college. He's a really good prospect with a fastball in the 90s from the left side and a changeup that can really play as a second pitch.
Drew McDaniel and Peyton Chatagnier are draft eligible, just FYI. I don't expect anything there, but if you see their names as options or whatever, just heads up they are eligible sophomores because of age.
Also, the transfer portal moves will pick up steam (for all colleges, not Ole Miss specific) once the draft is over and players start signing. Most of the instant impact portal guys are draft eligible so teams want to see what their situation is before they commit scholarship money. Like Ole Miss is at least sort of in the mix for Fullerton transfer portal pitcher Tanner Bibee, but he's draft eligible, and I'm hearing he has a pretty low price tag to sign. So it's likely he's chosen tomorrow and starts his pro career. But once the draft is over, we'll see a lot more portal moves.
As a reminder, each choice in the first 10 rounds comes with an assigned value, with the total for a club's selections equaling what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value gets subtracted from his team's pool. So, teams don't often risk a top-10 round pick unless it knows the player will sign and bypass college. That's how highly projected players end up not getting drafted or get drafted very late -- they aren't likely to sign anyway.
If a player signs for more than $125,000 after the 10th round, the amount over that number gets taken from the team's allowance for the first 10 rounds. Confused? If so ask questions below and I'lll do my best to explain it. Now on to the players.
Jackson Jobe - RHP, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Jobe has been a highly thought of prospect for a while, but he's exploded in the past months and is inarguably the top high school pitcher in the draft. With a fastball in the upper 90s and a slider spin rate of more than 3,100, a lot of scouts have him graded higher than Jack Leiter. Jobe could go as high as No. 3 and shouldn't fall outside No. 11 or so. Jobe has moved to campus in case something goes wrong with the draft, but he's expected to sign as a top-10 pick. The only miracle for Ole Miss -- and you never want a kid to fall on draft night -- is that teams worry about taking high school right-handers at the top of the draft. But Jobe has silenced those worries, and there's not any buzz about some last-minute buyer beware. Jobe, should something unlikely happen and he shows for school, is draft eligible again in 2023. Ole Miss fans should start paying attention if his name hasn't been called through the top 10, but his signability doesn't seem to be a case of scaring teams off in that 5-12 range -- slot values at five to 12 go from $6.18 million to $4.36 million.
Gunnar Hoglund - RHP, junior
Hoglund was poised to be a top-10 pick prior to his elbow injury, likely headed to Colorado at No. 8. There are some mixed thoughts on where Hoglund goes now, though a scout told me this week he still expects top 20-25 with the possibility of a little higher as teams just aren't scared of Tommy John anymore. The top 25 picks are all slotted at more than $2.7 million, and that's a sizable amount more than Hoglund was offered out of high school. Keith Law had him falling out of the first round. I haven't heard that from anyone, and I really hope it's not the case. I'm pulling for Hoglund to make a lot of money tonight.
Doug Nikhazy - LHP, junior
Nikhazy is a unanimous first team All-America selection and should hear his name called sometime tomorrow, likely getting chosen in the second or third round unless one team believes in him and take an earlier shot to guarantee it gets him. The production is unparalleled, as he was arguably the best starter in college baseball this season, though the Vandy duo got the PR points that led to Golden Spikes love. Scouts worry about his size and if he can hold velocity pitching every five days instead of every seven days. Pitchers without velocity get dropped in today's scouting climate. But I expect Doug to pitch in the Big Leagues for a long time. It's about getting outs and he does that.
Tim Elko - INF, junior
Outside of Jobe, Elko is the player to watch in the Draft. He's weeks removed from an ACL surgery, but that's not a detriment to his draft stock. He doesn't have a defensive position that scouts point to, but he can obviously hit, he a great character guy and there's enough SEC production to believe the bat can translate. But he's not looking at any huge signing bonus. He could as early as the back half of the top 10 rounds, though remember it's about money, not even necessarily round, and a lot of teams use picks 7-10 to value buy players and save bonus pool money to overpay someone else. The most likely thing is Elko is taken on day three and offered $125,000,$150,000. Industry sources don't expect him to take that, though there's constantly been a thought that Elko would decide to go ahead and start his pro career when the paper is put in front of him. I say 60-40 he comes back, but if he signs, I won't be surprised at all. He's absolutely the biggest swing option this week as it pertains to helping Ole Miss next season.
Kevin Graham - OF, junior
Justin Bench - UTIL, junior
I'm lumping Graham and Bench together. Both have indicated they are coming back to school barring some unexpected dollar offer. Both can get drafted if they want to sign for $100,000, but there's been little word that that's something they are interested in. I expect them both back in Oxford next season. If Ole Miss loses one of those two, it'll be an upset and bad news.
Dylan Delucia - RHP, Northwest Florida
Ole Miss is excited about the junior college right-hander, and I think he shows up and don't really even hear much buzz that he won't, but JUCO draft situations are weird, so he's at least worth mentioning. It would take him signing for low six figures and I don't think that happens, but I've seen crazier things over the years. Ole Miss needs quality arms in the worst way, and Delucia is likely a piece of that next season.
The only other incoming player that could be buzzy is Tupelo lefty Hunter Elliott, but he has a high price tag, and I've heard zero worry about him bypassing college. He's a really good prospect with a fastball in the 90s from the left side and a changeup that can really play as a second pitch.
Drew McDaniel and Peyton Chatagnier are draft eligible, just FYI. I don't expect anything there, but if you see their names as options or whatever, just heads up they are eligible sophomores because of age.
Also, the transfer portal moves will pick up steam (for all colleges, not Ole Miss specific) once the draft is over and players start signing. Most of the instant impact portal guys are draft eligible so teams want to see what their situation is before they commit scholarship money. Like Ole Miss is at least sort of in the mix for Fullerton transfer portal pitcher Tanner Bibee, but he's draft eligible, and I'm hearing he has a pretty low price tag to sign. So it's likely he's chosen tomorrow and starts his pro career. But once the draft is over, we'll see a lot more portal moves.
