Situational Baseball: Analyzing Runs Potential Statistics
by Mark MalterStats show that, unless we have a hitter far below average, the sacrifice should never be attempted. For example, in going from a runner on first and no outs to a runner on second with one out, or going from a runner on second with no outs to a runner on third with one out, we drop from 0.85 runs to 0.66 runs and from 1.10 runs to 0.94 runs respectively. Worse, I’m assuming that the bunt is always successful with the lead runner never being thrown out. The only situation where the bunt might be wise is in a late inning and the team is playing for one run after a leadoff double. Getting the runner from second and no outs to third with one out increases the probability of scoring from 0.61 to 0.65, IF the bunt is successful. Even here, it is a poor play if the success rate is less than 90%.
With that lead-in, let’s look at the situation yesterday. It was the top of the eight inning, not the bottom of the ninth. And we were the road team trailing by one. Other stats I can pull up say that the chances of scoring at least one run go up very marginally if you have the bases loaded with one out versus first and second and no outs. But you substantially curtail your chance of a big inning, one run only gets you a tie, and A&M had two more at-bats.
Now let’s plug-in the actual players. A bunt makes more sense the weaker the batter. Consequently, if BVC had been the scheduled batter, I would not have as big of an issue with the bunt. In this case, the scheduled batter was Leatherwood, who is our top hitter in SEC play with a .386 average. Moreover, he has been absolutely on fire the past two weeks, having gone 3 for 3 on Sunday, 7 for 11 against Texas A&M and 14/26 over the last 7 games (why is he still batting in the bottom third?). How can you even think about taking the bat out of his hands, it is simply mind boggling? Based on his SEC season stats, there was almost a 39% chance that Hayden plates the lead runner. Based on the last two weeks, those chances rose to 54%. And based on the A&M series, the chances rose to 64%, it‘s almost like A&M pinch hitting for Frizzell.
So Mike takes our leading hitter in the SEC out of a game where we trail by one in the eighth. If you do tie it up, you might like to still have his bat available. He also burns our second best hitter in the SEC by average, Tim Elko, who is hitting .372 in league play, by pinch hitting him with first base open. So he has now burned three hitters, Leatherwood, Elko and Baler, in a one-run deficit game. Those three were a combined 11/26 over the weekend, or a .423 BA, and placed the game on the shoulder of a freshmen batting .235 and leading the team in grounded into double plays in SEC games. Oh, and BTW, if you are concerned about such things, he bunted and wasted out two top hitters in league play to get to another lefty versus lefty match-up. Excuse me, it‘s just idiotic.
I‘m not going to run all the stats for every possible scenario, but you cannot play for one when you are trailing by one on the road in the eighth, especially when your bullpen is struggling. You bat Leatherwood, Baker and Elko in that order, and based on their results this weekend, there’s over a 91% chance that one of them plates at least one run, hopefully more. Admittedly, I don‘t love hitting Baker, but if Leatherwood does not reach and there’s no open base, you could PH Elko for him.
I am sorry, I have been a Rebel all my life and I am used to losing, but yesterday’s game may have been the worst managed of Bianco’s career, I still can’t get over it. I really feel for the kids, he did not even give them a chance yesterday.
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