The term “must-win” might be one of the most overused terms in sports, used all too often in situations when it simply doesn’t apply. Many times the team in question is already out of contention or still in a position to remain in contention with a loss. Yet the “must-win” tag is often carelessly applied as the phrase loses even more meaning.
Hopefully this year's LSU-Ole Miss contest is better than the 2014 product that saw the Tigers win 10-7.
But there is not a team that needs a win more this week than Alabama.
Nick Saban, for better or worse, has created monstrous expectations in Tuscaloosa and is in grave danger of failing to meet them this season. Already saddled with a loss to Ole Miss, Alabama travels to Athens for another marquee matchup against Georgia.
It’s been five years since the last time the Crimson Tide lost multiple regular season games and not since 2007 – Saban’s first year on the job at Alabama – have they lost multiple games by the first week of October. But here they are, a loss to the Bulldogs away from being eliminated from playoff contention before the leaves start changing colors.
This game obviously has huge implications for a currently unbeaten Georgia team that is looking for its first national title since Herschel Walker was in the Bulldogs backfield. Thirty-five years later, it’s Nick Chubb making a name for himself while asserting himself as a Heisman candidate while Mark Richt eyes a national championship that’s eluded him the last 15 years.
With Notre Dame-Clemson also on the Saturday slate, there is a pair of games with major playoff implications. But where do they rank among the rest of the regular season games when it comes to how crucial they are to the final playoff picture?
Using the least squares optimization model that assigns ratings to every FBS team for the purpose of projecting the remaining regular season contests, we can answer that question with two criteria this model produces – the average rating of teams in a given matchup and the projected absolute margin of victory in that game. Below are the 10 most crucial games left in this college football regular season.
1. LSU at Ole Miss – Nov. 21
As tough as the SEC West is, this game could pit powerhouse unbeatens against each other with both teams having no worse than a 60% chance to win any of their games between now and Nov. 21. The Rebels went to Death Valley last year with a perfect 7-0 mark only to fall by three and go on to finish the season 9-4. Will Ole Miss be able to return the favor? Or will Leonard Fournette have a signature Heisman moment? This game will have it all.
2. Oklahoma at Baylor – Nov. 14
The Big 12 was on the outside looking in during last year’s inaugural playoff but has three legitimate contenders this year in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma. While many believe the Horned Frogs have the best chance to be the Big 12’s playoff representative, the model has other ideas. Oklahoma (54.69 rating, No. 8) and Baylor (51.38, No. 11) square off in Waco in what the model sees as the Big 12’s best matchup of the year and what’s sure to be an epic shootout.
3. UCLA at USC – Nov. 28
This game has everything – a bitter cross-town rivalry featuring two playoff contenders that projects to be a nail-biter. UCLA (46.96 rating, No. 13) is ranked slightly higher by the model than USC (44.56, No. 20) but because the game will be played at the Coliseum, the home-field advantage makes the Trojans slight favorites – by 0.8 points. Both teams have games against Utah before then, with USC having road trips against Notre Dame and Cal as well.
4. LSU at Alabama – Nov. 7
LSU is the model’s new No. 1 with a rating of 62.44 but, even with a loss, Alabama is still considered a Top 10 team by the model with a 51.69 rating (No. 10). The Crimson Tide also have the benefit of getting the Tigers in Tuscaloosa this year. LSU is still the favorite here, projected to win by 7.6 points with a 60.3% chance to win. But if Alabama finds a way to beat Georgia this weekend, this game may decide who the SEC West sends to the playoff this year.
5. Alabama at Georgia – Oct. 3
To say there is a big game between the hedges this week would be a gross understatement. Georgia, with a 61.98 rating, is the model’s second-ranked team in the country and very much in control of its own destiny. The Bulldogs have a better than 75% chance to win each of the rest of their regular season games after this week and are currently projected to win more games than anyone in the country. If Georgia beats Alabama, it is projected to have a 18.3% chance to finish the regular season undefeated and a 56.4% chance to finish at least 11-1, which would likely be enough to get it in the playoff.
6. Notre Dame at Clemson – Oct. 3
Also this week, Clemson hosts Notre Dame in a matchup of battle-tested unbeatens. Unfortunately for both the Fighting Irish and Tigers, they each have plenty of tough tests even after this week. But this contest could serve as an elimination game of sorts, with the winner maintaining its place as a playoff contender and the loser falling by the wayside.
7. Florida State at Georgia Tech – Oct. 24
Even at 2-2, the model still sees Georgia Tech as a force to be reckoned with. It’s probably overrating the Yellow Jackets a bit, giving it a 56.62 rating (No. 6). But their two losses, according to the model, have been to two of the best teams in the country in Notre Dame (56.27 rating, No. 7) and Duke (47.51 rating, No. 12). Bottom line: this will be one of Florida State’s biggest hurdles this season, as evidenced by the 49.3% chance the model gives it to win this game and the model making it 0.5-point underdogs.
8. UCLA at Stanford – Oct. 15
Like Georgia Tech, Stanford may not have a realistic chance to get into the playoff but it has the power to significantly alter the playoff picture. The Cardinal gets its next chance to do so when it hosts UCLA next month. If they’re good enough to knock off USC on the road, they’re probably good enough to beat UCLA at home. This projects to be the closest of any game on this list, with Stanford favored by 0.3 points over the Bruins – giving it a 50.4% chance to win.
9. Florida State at Clemson – Nov. 7
Florida State and Clemson are both playoff contenders in the ACC Atlantic division, but they are facing very different challenges. The Seminoles’ toughest games are all on the road (Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida) while they get solid ACC teams in Miami and NC State at home. Meanwhile, the Tigers get Georgia Tech and Florida State at home but will face Miami and NC State on the road in back-to-back weeks. This will be a pivotal game for both squads.
10. Georgia at Georgia Tech – Nov. 28
Interestingly enough, this game projects to be the best one left in terms of the quality of teams in the contest with an average rating of 59.3. It’s also projected to be close, with Georgia being favored by 2.2 points and having a 53.0% chance to win its regular season finale against Georgia Tech. In all likelihood, the Bulldogs’ biggest game after this week will likely be in the SEC title game. That could potentially be against LSU, which would match up the model’s top two teams – one in which LSU would be favored by 0.5 points and have a 50.6% chance to win.
Honorable mention:
Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21) – Might come as a surprise, but Buckeyes too big of a favorite to make the cut
TCU at Oklahoma (Nov. 21), TCU vs. Baylor (Nov. 27) – Model doesn’t like TCU like it likes Bears and Sooners
Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov. 28) – Might be No. 11 game, Irish a 9-point favorite
Mississippi State vs. Alabama (Nov. 14), Ole Miss (Nov. 28) – Bulldogs likely out of playoff picture but get Tide and Rebels at home
Florida at LSU (Oct. 9), vs. Georgia (Oct. 31) – Gators good but face quite the gauntlet in October with these and hosting Ole Miss this weekend
West Virginia at Oklahoma (Oct. 3), at Baylor (Oct. 17) – Model likes Mountaineers (45.8 rating, No. 17) but get Big 12’s best on road
Georgia Tech at Clemson (Oct. 10) – Tigers with three straight tough ones between last week’s win over Louisville, this week’s game against Notre Dame and this one next week
Utah at USC (Oct. 24), vs. UCLA (Nov. 21) – Like TCU, model doesn’t like Utah like it does fellow Pac-12 contenders, although that could change
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov. 28) – Cowboys no slouch (42.75 rating, No. 24) and get Bedlam at home this season
USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 17) – Obviously a big game but Notre Dame at home such a heavy favorite (14.9 points)
Hopefully this year's LSU-Ole Miss contest is better than the 2014 product that saw the Tigers win 10-7.
But there is not a team that needs a win more this week than Alabama.
Nick Saban, for better or worse, has created monstrous expectations in Tuscaloosa and is in grave danger of failing to meet them this season. Already saddled with a loss to Ole Miss, Alabama travels to Athens for another marquee matchup against Georgia.
It’s been five years since the last time the Crimson Tide lost multiple regular season games and not since 2007 – Saban’s first year on the job at Alabama – have they lost multiple games by the first week of October. But here they are, a loss to the Bulldogs away from being eliminated from playoff contention before the leaves start changing colors.
This game obviously has huge implications for a currently unbeaten Georgia team that is looking for its first national title since Herschel Walker was in the Bulldogs backfield. Thirty-five years later, it’s Nick Chubb making a name for himself while asserting himself as a Heisman candidate while Mark Richt eyes a national championship that’s eluded him the last 15 years.
With Notre Dame-Clemson also on the Saturday slate, there is a pair of games with major playoff implications. But where do they rank among the rest of the regular season games when it comes to how crucial they are to the final playoff picture?
Using the least squares optimization model that assigns ratings to every FBS team for the purpose of projecting the remaining regular season contests, we can answer that question with two criteria this model produces – the average rating of teams in a given matchup and the projected absolute margin of victory in that game. Below are the 10 most crucial games left in this college football regular season.
1. LSU at Ole Miss – Nov. 21
As tough as the SEC West is, this game could pit powerhouse unbeatens against each other with both teams having no worse than a 60% chance to win any of their games between now and Nov. 21. The Rebels went to Death Valley last year with a perfect 7-0 mark only to fall by three and go on to finish the season 9-4. Will Ole Miss be able to return the favor? Or will Leonard Fournette have a signature Heisman moment? This game will have it all.
2. Oklahoma at Baylor – Nov. 14
The Big 12 was on the outside looking in during last year’s inaugural playoff but has three legitimate contenders this year in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma. While many believe the Horned Frogs have the best chance to be the Big 12’s playoff representative, the model has other ideas. Oklahoma (54.69 rating, No. 8) and Baylor (51.38, No. 11) square off in Waco in what the model sees as the Big 12’s best matchup of the year and what’s sure to be an epic shootout.
3. UCLA at USC – Nov. 28
This game has everything – a bitter cross-town rivalry featuring two playoff contenders that projects to be a nail-biter. UCLA (46.96 rating, No. 13) is ranked slightly higher by the model than USC (44.56, No. 20) but because the game will be played at the Coliseum, the home-field advantage makes the Trojans slight favorites – by 0.8 points. Both teams have games against Utah before then, with USC having road trips against Notre Dame and Cal as well.
4. LSU at Alabama – Nov. 7
LSU is the model’s new No. 1 with a rating of 62.44 but, even with a loss, Alabama is still considered a Top 10 team by the model with a 51.69 rating (No. 10). The Crimson Tide also have the benefit of getting the Tigers in Tuscaloosa this year. LSU is still the favorite here, projected to win by 7.6 points with a 60.3% chance to win. But if Alabama finds a way to beat Georgia this weekend, this game may decide who the SEC West sends to the playoff this year.
5. Alabama at Georgia – Oct. 3
To say there is a big game between the hedges this week would be a gross understatement. Georgia, with a 61.98 rating, is the model’s second-ranked team in the country and very much in control of its own destiny. The Bulldogs have a better than 75% chance to win each of the rest of their regular season games after this week and are currently projected to win more games than anyone in the country. If Georgia beats Alabama, it is projected to have a 18.3% chance to finish the regular season undefeated and a 56.4% chance to finish at least 11-1, which would likely be enough to get it in the playoff.
6. Notre Dame at Clemson – Oct. 3
Also this week, Clemson hosts Notre Dame in a matchup of battle-tested unbeatens. Unfortunately for both the Fighting Irish and Tigers, they each have plenty of tough tests even after this week. But this contest could serve as an elimination game of sorts, with the winner maintaining its place as a playoff contender and the loser falling by the wayside.
7. Florida State at Georgia Tech – Oct. 24
Even at 2-2, the model still sees Georgia Tech as a force to be reckoned with. It’s probably overrating the Yellow Jackets a bit, giving it a 56.62 rating (No. 6). But their two losses, according to the model, have been to two of the best teams in the country in Notre Dame (56.27 rating, No. 7) and Duke (47.51 rating, No. 12). Bottom line: this will be one of Florida State’s biggest hurdles this season, as evidenced by the 49.3% chance the model gives it to win this game and the model making it 0.5-point underdogs.
8. UCLA at Stanford – Oct. 15
Like Georgia Tech, Stanford may not have a realistic chance to get into the playoff but it has the power to significantly alter the playoff picture. The Cardinal gets its next chance to do so when it hosts UCLA next month. If they’re good enough to knock off USC on the road, they’re probably good enough to beat UCLA at home. This projects to be the closest of any game on this list, with Stanford favored by 0.3 points over the Bruins – giving it a 50.4% chance to win.
9. Florida State at Clemson – Nov. 7
Florida State and Clemson are both playoff contenders in the ACC Atlantic division, but they are facing very different challenges. The Seminoles’ toughest games are all on the road (Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida) while they get solid ACC teams in Miami and NC State at home. Meanwhile, the Tigers get Georgia Tech and Florida State at home but will face Miami and NC State on the road in back-to-back weeks. This will be a pivotal game for both squads.
10. Georgia at Georgia Tech – Nov. 28
Interestingly enough, this game projects to be the best one left in terms of the quality of teams in the contest with an average rating of 59.3. It’s also projected to be close, with Georgia being favored by 2.2 points and having a 53.0% chance to win its regular season finale against Georgia Tech. In all likelihood, the Bulldogs’ biggest game after this week will likely be in the SEC title game. That could potentially be against LSU, which would match up the model’s top two teams – one in which LSU would be favored by 0.5 points and have a 50.6% chance to win.
Honorable mention:
Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov. 21) – Might come as a surprise, but Buckeyes too big of a favorite to make the cut
TCU at Oklahoma (Nov. 21), TCU vs. Baylor (Nov. 27) – Model doesn’t like TCU like it likes Bears and Sooners
Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov. 28) – Might be No. 11 game, Irish a 9-point favorite
Mississippi State vs. Alabama (Nov. 14), Ole Miss (Nov. 28) – Bulldogs likely out of playoff picture but get Tide and Rebels at home
Florida at LSU (Oct. 9), vs. Georgia (Oct. 31) – Gators good but face quite the gauntlet in October with these and hosting Ole Miss this weekend
West Virginia at Oklahoma (Oct. 3), at Baylor (Oct. 17) – Model likes Mountaineers (45.8 rating, No. 17) but get Big 12’s best on road
Georgia Tech at Clemson (Oct. 10) – Tigers with three straight tough ones between last week’s win over Louisville, this week’s game against Notre Dame and this one next week
Utah at USC (Oct. 24), vs. UCLA (Nov. 21) – Like TCU, model doesn’t like Utah like it does fellow Pac-12 contenders, although that could change
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov. 28) – Cowboys no slouch (42.75 rating, No. 24) and get Bedlam at home this season
USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 17) – Obviously a big game but Notre Dame at home such a heavy favorite (14.9 points)
