This isn’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have some fall baseball takeaways to get you caught up heading into the spring. I’ll analyze some things more in depth soon and look at the roster more systematically. For now, these are the cliffs for things now that the Omaha Challenge is complete and fall ball is wrapped.
The main point in today’s college baseball world is how impossible it is to know how a roster stacks against the league. I called a scout to talk about one of the transfers on Ole Miss, and he remarked that if it were a few years ago, you could just look at the Rebels and know they were one of the best five to eight teams in the country. That he really likes their roster and in the pre-portal days, the expectations would be very high.
But, now, the league has gotten so good and every team is adding pieces to the point that there’s no completely accurate way to know where you stand. There will be some wild misses in the preseason projections. Between all the new pieces and the way the game has changed with being so offensive and not having starting pitchers who go deep into games, we’re really early in a new era we don’t completely understand.
The biggest thing from the fall is the portal additions all looked mostly like what you wanted them to look like. Sometimes transfers are way, way behind what you need and it’s obvious it’s a bust. That didn’t happen. I refuse to put a ton of weight on the fall, but none of the portal guys looked overwhelmed to the point of being lost money. Andrew Fischer didn’t play that well, but there’s a good history on him at Duke, and that shouldn’t be a concern right now. He’s earned the benefit of doubt. The lights aren’t on in the fall. Some players don’t do well with that. Some players only do well because of that.
Judd Utermark is where you want to buy your stock if he stays healthy. He aggravated that shoulder that’s given him a lot of trouble but is healthy now. He ran a 6.3 60-yard dash and really swung it well when healthy. He’s also arguably Ole Miss’ best defender at third base, first base and the corner outfield. Pray for health and he should take a really big jump into being a dude this season.
Reagan Burford played well this fall and was good defensively. I don’t know if he’s gotten better with the glove and it’s not an issue, and he’s taken a turn offensively, or if it’s mental in some ways and it’ll be a struggle in the spring in the real games. Just put an asterisk by it.
FAU transfer Jackson Ross is likely the best hitter on the team. He can play anywhere but catcher, short and center, so there are options there. I like the defensive versatility with the projected lineup. There are a lot of guys who can play multiple spots at above average levels.
Rockwall, Texas, freshman Brayden Randle really performed well this fall and would be a starter or get a lot of playing time if the season started today. He can play in the infield or outfield and has similar versatility to Ethan Lege, who I had penciled in at second base before the fall. Curious to see how they fit Randle, Lege, Utermark while having Ethan Groff and Treyson Hughes in outfield spots.
Campbell Smithwick's offense is ahead of his defense, but his defense isn't bad. He's excellent for a true freshman, but it's a lot of responsibility. He's the everyday catcher. I thought Ole Miss would sign an older Division I catcher also for the security and depth, but they didn't go that route. It's Smithwick's show.
JT Quinn and Xavier Rivas, I thought, were Ole Miss’ two best arms in the fall and I think both start this spring. I’d lean Liam Doyle from Coastal as the third starter. He was really good late after some struggles early, but the stuff is excellent. It’s real.
Josh Mallitz is up to 91 MPH in his Tommy John recovery. He’ll be 100 percent with no issues by spring. Sam Tookoian was injured most of fall, but he’s healthy now and up to 96 or so. Braden Jones was 96-97 after some early shoulder trouble. Riley Mattox looked really good. The sinker and slider are real, and the changeup is better. He looked like the really healthy, improved second year after Tommy John pitcher. He’ll help.
The positive/issue with Ole Miss pitching is I don’t know how to group the next dozen or so arms after Quinn, Doyle, Rivas and Mallitz. It’s a lot of guys who can get outs and you can see have decent to good seasons. Ole Miss has more potential depth than in a long time and actually has some variety — lefties, changeups, curveballs, etc. I just don’t know what they’ll do with it. The coaching staff is optimistic because of how outings are shorter now in the SEC, and you’re trying to fit and match more than just throw someone out there to get 15 outs. You have to pitch in pods, for lack of a better term. Only a few guys in the SEC averaged five innings per start a year ago, and one of those was a unicorn. LSU’s pitching stats were pedestrian after him, and they won a national title. I think it caused me to undervalue Rivas in real time. He was one of the league’s best pitchers, but I mistakenly graded him on an old curve.
Bottom line: I like the offense and the defense. I think the staff can be good. I’m just again not sure what “good” is. The COVID guys are all gone, so does offense trend down a tick? I don’t know. We’re all still trying to figure it out, and that means the coaches, too. I just know to be a top 10 SEC team, you better be top 15 nationally.
The main point in today’s college baseball world is how impossible it is to know how a roster stacks against the league. I called a scout to talk about one of the transfers on Ole Miss, and he remarked that if it were a few years ago, you could just look at the Rebels and know they were one of the best five to eight teams in the country. That he really likes their roster and in the pre-portal days, the expectations would be very high.
But, now, the league has gotten so good and every team is adding pieces to the point that there’s no completely accurate way to know where you stand. There will be some wild misses in the preseason projections. Between all the new pieces and the way the game has changed with being so offensive and not having starting pitchers who go deep into games, we’re really early in a new era we don’t completely understand.
The biggest thing from the fall is the portal additions all looked mostly like what you wanted them to look like. Sometimes transfers are way, way behind what you need and it’s obvious it’s a bust. That didn’t happen. I refuse to put a ton of weight on the fall, but none of the portal guys looked overwhelmed to the point of being lost money. Andrew Fischer didn’t play that well, but there’s a good history on him at Duke, and that shouldn’t be a concern right now. He’s earned the benefit of doubt. The lights aren’t on in the fall. Some players don’t do well with that. Some players only do well because of that.
Judd Utermark is where you want to buy your stock if he stays healthy. He aggravated that shoulder that’s given him a lot of trouble but is healthy now. He ran a 6.3 60-yard dash and really swung it well when healthy. He’s also arguably Ole Miss’ best defender at third base, first base and the corner outfield. Pray for health and he should take a really big jump into being a dude this season.
Reagan Burford played well this fall and was good defensively. I don’t know if he’s gotten better with the glove and it’s not an issue, and he’s taken a turn offensively, or if it’s mental in some ways and it’ll be a struggle in the spring in the real games. Just put an asterisk by it.
FAU transfer Jackson Ross is likely the best hitter on the team. He can play anywhere but catcher, short and center, so there are options there. I like the defensive versatility with the projected lineup. There are a lot of guys who can play multiple spots at above average levels.
Rockwall, Texas, freshman Brayden Randle really performed well this fall and would be a starter or get a lot of playing time if the season started today. He can play in the infield or outfield and has similar versatility to Ethan Lege, who I had penciled in at second base before the fall. Curious to see how they fit Randle, Lege, Utermark while having Ethan Groff and Treyson Hughes in outfield spots.
Campbell Smithwick's offense is ahead of his defense, but his defense isn't bad. He's excellent for a true freshman, but it's a lot of responsibility. He's the everyday catcher. I thought Ole Miss would sign an older Division I catcher also for the security and depth, but they didn't go that route. It's Smithwick's show.
JT Quinn and Xavier Rivas, I thought, were Ole Miss’ two best arms in the fall and I think both start this spring. I’d lean Liam Doyle from Coastal as the third starter. He was really good late after some struggles early, but the stuff is excellent. It’s real.
Josh Mallitz is up to 91 MPH in his Tommy John recovery. He’ll be 100 percent with no issues by spring. Sam Tookoian was injured most of fall, but he’s healthy now and up to 96 or so. Braden Jones was 96-97 after some early shoulder trouble. Riley Mattox looked really good. The sinker and slider are real, and the changeup is better. He looked like the really healthy, improved second year after Tommy John pitcher. He’ll help.
The positive/issue with Ole Miss pitching is I don’t know how to group the next dozen or so arms after Quinn, Doyle, Rivas and Mallitz. It’s a lot of guys who can get outs and you can see have decent to good seasons. Ole Miss has more potential depth than in a long time and actually has some variety — lefties, changeups, curveballs, etc. I just don’t know what they’ll do with it. The coaching staff is optimistic because of how outings are shorter now in the SEC, and you’re trying to fit and match more than just throw someone out there to get 15 outs. You have to pitch in pods, for lack of a better term. Only a few guys in the SEC averaged five innings per start a year ago, and one of those was a unicorn. LSU’s pitching stats were pedestrian after him, and they won a national title. I think it caused me to undervalue Rivas in real time. He was one of the league’s best pitchers, but I mistakenly graded him on an old curve.
Bottom line: I like the offense and the defense. I think the staff can be good. I’m just again not sure what “good” is. The COVID guys are all gone, so does offense trend down a tick? I don’t know. We’re all still trying to figure it out, and that means the coaches, too. I just know to be a top 10 SEC team, you better be top 15 nationally.
