Ole Miss is 28-12 overall and 10-8 in the SEC.
The RPI this morning is 15, and while that's in host range, it's not sniffing national seed range. I think that ship has passed. I know many of you know that, but just clarifying for those who don't follow baseball as closely. The RPI is pretty jacked up, too. You see Fairfield at No. 2, and I don't know what the committee will do with that. It's jacked up because the Big Ten and the MAAC are playing conference-only schedules. So really you have three different seasons going at once -- Big Ten, MAAC and everybody else. Since those two conferences are only playing each other, there's no crossover data point to compare them against other teams. Fairfield being No. 1 for a while meant essentially that it was better than its opponents by a wider margin that Arkansas was better than its opponents. The computer can't compare them when there are zero common opponents anywhere on the schedules. It's an interesting deal because technically small conferences should do this every year if it's only about NCAA positioning. You can guarantee a good RPI in your conference if the whole league doesn't play anyone else.
The point relative to Ole Miss is does the NCAA try to put a host spot in Wright State and/or Fairfield? I have no freaking idea. I doubt it but who knows. If they don't then Ole Miss' RPI is 13th among relevant teams. At the moment there are 6 or 7 SEC teams in the running for host spots, depending on how you view Florida. RPI is 32 but 11-7 in the league. The Gators have a worse problem than Ole Miss cut from the same cloth. The wins aren't impressive. Eight of the 11 wins are against TAMU, Auburn and Missouri. They play Vanderbilt this weekend. Feels like a must win to host, but what if they beat Kentucky all three the next week and only win one this week? That's 15-9 in the SEC which is always a certain host, but the RPI won't be top 20 and the wins will be lackluster. Who knows.
Arkansas, Tennessee and Vanderbilt have locked up host spots, in my opinion. I think State is close to doing that as well. They can have a good weekend against TAMU this weekend and pretty much clinch it before that May 10 date when the 16 sites are announced.
I think this weekend is a must-win for Ole Miss from a hosting standpoint. The resume lacks anything resembling a good series win after that sweep in Texas. That's the gift that keeps on giving. Texas and TCU are top 10 in RPI and Tech is at 19. South Carolina is 11-7 in the league and has an RPI of 10. It's possible the SEC gets six hosts, but the safe route is to try to steal Carolina's with a series win and a good weekend against the Aggies. And Ole Miss just needs good wins, regardless of conference affiliation. This is the last chance to do that before the committee announces sites.
In a normal year, I'd have 17 wins as the needed goal, but while the last two regular season weekends matter for seeding, the hosting conversation will already be over. So I think 14-10 is the number necessary with at least two of them coming this weekend. Just my opinion. Predicting the committee in this Frankenstein year is impossible.
The other thing, too, is we don't know what the NCAA is even basing host sites off of. It's a "hybrid approach" based on merit, location and "other factors." So they could just throw these things up evenly all over the country. They won't I don't think but they technically could. And there's no financial guarantee to the bidding process and a max 50 percent capacity, so again, while I don't think so, technically Fairfield could host in a park that holds 300 people if the NCAA wanted to get cute.
And remember the 8 super regional sites come from the 16 host sites so a park could host a super regional without its team playing in it. Also if a team gets a host site but then loses how many ever in a row, I guess they could be a 2 in someone else's regional while four teams come to their home park. Or they screw a one seed and send them as a traveling one to an SEC 2 seed. I don't know, and the NCAA hasn't tried to clarify it. I'm trying to get that answer now.
Bottom line: The top 8 has sailed probably, but Ole Miss could benefit from some luck if they get a host site because of the way this is all structured. To deserve a host site on merit, I think it's 14-10 with a series win over Carolina. Your mileage may vary. Also, it's not in a vacuum. What other teams do affects things positively and negatively.
The RPI this morning is 15, and while that's in host range, it's not sniffing national seed range. I think that ship has passed. I know many of you know that, but just clarifying for those who don't follow baseball as closely. The RPI is pretty jacked up, too. You see Fairfield at No. 2, and I don't know what the committee will do with that. It's jacked up because the Big Ten and the MAAC are playing conference-only schedules. So really you have three different seasons going at once -- Big Ten, MAAC and everybody else. Since those two conferences are only playing each other, there's no crossover data point to compare them against other teams. Fairfield being No. 1 for a while meant essentially that it was better than its opponents by a wider margin that Arkansas was better than its opponents. The computer can't compare them when there are zero common opponents anywhere on the schedules. It's an interesting deal because technically small conferences should do this every year if it's only about NCAA positioning. You can guarantee a good RPI in your conference if the whole league doesn't play anyone else.
The point relative to Ole Miss is does the NCAA try to put a host spot in Wright State and/or Fairfield? I have no freaking idea. I doubt it but who knows. If they don't then Ole Miss' RPI is 13th among relevant teams. At the moment there are 6 or 7 SEC teams in the running for host spots, depending on how you view Florida. RPI is 32 but 11-7 in the league. The Gators have a worse problem than Ole Miss cut from the same cloth. The wins aren't impressive. Eight of the 11 wins are against TAMU, Auburn and Missouri. They play Vanderbilt this weekend. Feels like a must win to host, but what if they beat Kentucky all three the next week and only win one this week? That's 15-9 in the SEC which is always a certain host, but the RPI won't be top 20 and the wins will be lackluster. Who knows.
Arkansas, Tennessee and Vanderbilt have locked up host spots, in my opinion. I think State is close to doing that as well. They can have a good weekend against TAMU this weekend and pretty much clinch it before that May 10 date when the 16 sites are announced.
I think this weekend is a must-win for Ole Miss from a hosting standpoint. The resume lacks anything resembling a good series win after that sweep in Texas. That's the gift that keeps on giving. Texas and TCU are top 10 in RPI and Tech is at 19. South Carolina is 11-7 in the league and has an RPI of 10. It's possible the SEC gets six hosts, but the safe route is to try to steal Carolina's with a series win and a good weekend against the Aggies. And Ole Miss just needs good wins, regardless of conference affiliation. This is the last chance to do that before the committee announces sites.
In a normal year, I'd have 17 wins as the needed goal, but while the last two regular season weekends matter for seeding, the hosting conversation will already be over. So I think 14-10 is the number necessary with at least two of them coming this weekend. Just my opinion. Predicting the committee in this Frankenstein year is impossible.
The other thing, too, is we don't know what the NCAA is even basing host sites off of. It's a "hybrid approach" based on merit, location and "other factors." So they could just throw these things up evenly all over the country. They won't I don't think but they technically could. And there's no financial guarantee to the bidding process and a max 50 percent capacity, so again, while I don't think so, technically Fairfield could host in a park that holds 300 people if the NCAA wanted to get cute.
And remember the 8 super regional sites come from the 16 host sites so a park could host a super regional without its team playing in it. Also if a team gets a host site but then loses how many ever in a row, I guess they could be a 2 in someone else's regional while four teams come to their home park. Or they screw a one seed and send them as a traveling one to an SEC 2 seed. I don't know, and the NCAA hasn't tried to clarify it. I'm trying to get that answer now.
Bottom line: The top 8 has sailed probably, but Ole Miss could benefit from some luck if they get a host site because of the way this is all structured. To deserve a host site on merit, I think it's 14-10 with a series win over Carolina. Your mileage may vary. Also, it's not in a vacuum. What other teams do affects things positively and negatively.
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