A lot of angst over Kiffin not taking the points at times this year, so I wanted to take a look at the toss-up games from the past 4 years to see how many have been impacted by Kiffin's redzone aggression. A couple of assumptions: 1) all field goals inside of the 30 would have been made which is generous 2) game flow impacts would have been minimal which is hard to judge. An opponent may perform differently given a redzone stop or made FG. 3) This is a net outcome look, so if we went for it on 4th and goal twice getting stopped once and scoring a touchdown on the other, the net outcome is +1 points for us. 4) I didn't look into midfield 4th down attempts because the option is either punt or go, which makes a harder analysis and this doesn't seem to be as big of a gripe.
So, a look at how game outcomes would have been if all 4th downs in makeable field goal range had been kicked.
2021:
Arkansas: Becomes a loss if all redzone 4th downs are FGs
TN: Outcome unchanged
Auburn: Outcome unchanged. This one was not like I recalled. We benefitted from a 4th down conversion for a TD, so the net outcome is still a loss
A&M: Outcome unchanged.
Season goes from 10-2 to 9-3
2022:
UK: Unchanged
A&M: Unchanged
Alabama: Game goes to OT. This one assumes that the last possession is occurring down 3 points and a field goal is attempted instead of having to score a touchdown.
Ms St: Unchanged
Season outcome is tougher because of the drama at the end if the Alabama game were to go to OT and the rebs had won.
2023:
Alabama: Unchanged
LSU: becomes a loss
Arkansas: Unchanged
Season: 10-2 to 9-3
2024:
UK: Unchanged
LSU: Becomes a win. The first game that definitively can be said was lost due to not taking the points. However, it's worth pointing out that UB touchdown run came on 4th down from midfield.
Florida: Unchanged strictly on a net point basis. Ole Miss gave up 6 points in the redzone on 4th down stops. However, it's an easy argument to make that the end of the game plays out differently if OM is down 1 point instead of 7, so I'll be generous and give Ole Miss the win.
Season: 8-3 to 10-1
So, a look at how game outcomes would have been if all 4th downs in makeable field goal range had been kicked.
2021:
Arkansas: Becomes a loss if all redzone 4th downs are FGs
TN: Outcome unchanged
Auburn: Outcome unchanged. This one was not like I recalled. We benefitted from a 4th down conversion for a TD, so the net outcome is still a loss
A&M: Outcome unchanged.
Season goes from 10-2 to 9-3
2022:
UK: Unchanged
A&M: Unchanged
Alabama: Game goes to OT. This one assumes that the last possession is occurring down 3 points and a field goal is attempted instead of having to score a touchdown.
Ms St: Unchanged
Season outcome is tougher because of the drama at the end if the Alabama game were to go to OT and the rebs had won.
2023:
Alabama: Unchanged
LSU: becomes a loss
Arkansas: Unchanged
Season: 10-2 to 9-3
2024:
UK: Unchanged
LSU: Becomes a win. The first game that definitively can be said was lost due to not taking the points. However, it's worth pointing out that UB touchdown run came on 4th down from midfield.
Florida: Unchanged strictly on a net point basis. Ole Miss gave up 6 points in the redzone on 4th down stops. However, it's an easy argument to make that the end of the game plays out differently if OM is down 1 point instead of 7, so I'll be generous and give Ole Miss the win.
Season: 8-3 to 10-1
