Ole Miss has a tall order on opening day, taking on Louisville ace Reid Detmers, the junior who has a shot at being a top-10 pick this June and is the No. 2 starting pitcher nationally per D1Baseball.com. I'll attempt to do this with opposing starting pitchers this season when there's video available.
Detmers struck out 167 and walked 33 in 113.1 innings as a sophomore, giving up 30 extra base hits. He greatly increased his command from his freshman season, when he walked 34 in 55.2 innings. I'll show you how he did that in a second.
But here's the deal: his breaking ball is what makes him go. The fastball is going to be in the low 90s, but he's not going to blow you away with velocity. He's going to throw a two-seamer with some movement and pinpoint it to both sides of the plate when he's not throwing this wipeout breaking ball. It's a plus pitch that is the reason he has crazy strikeout numbers. Take some blood pressure meds if you're heart rate spikes when Ole Miss waves at a ball you think they shouldn't swing at. It's a 1/7 curveball that's a hammer with great depth. Any inconsistency with it is more about where he starts it instead of hanging it. It has a lot of spin and he does a really good job of tunneling (throwing all pitches from the same arm slot) both the fastball and breaking ball.
This video is of him as a freshman when he walked too many and struggled with command at times on all his pitches. See how he's closed off on his front side and his arm slot was more three-quarters with it slinging out of his hand somewhat? Compare that to this video below.
This is from Team USA last summer, and you can see he gets out over his front side better and his arm slot has more extension. The breaking ball does come out a touch higher of an arm slot, but I'm not sure that's able to be picked up in real time. That curveball is just devastating for left-handers. He reminds me of Brendan McKay with a little less velocity. He really improved his lower-half mechanics from year one to year two, and he replicates it exceptionally well, especially out of the stretch.
The good news for Ole Miss is he will miss up in the zone some, and it's not hard enough to make it dumb to swing at it. Detmers' fastball also flattens out when it's up in the zone. It picks up movement the lower it is in the strike zone. You don't want to tell hitters to swing for the home run, but the path to beating him is barreling up mistakes high in the zone for extra bases.
Clemson beat him twice last year, hitting three home runs and a double off him in six innings the first time and then three doubles and a home run in four innings the second time. Virginia got him for six runs because of two doubles and two home runs. NC State scored five runs off two doubles and three home runs. It's hard to station to station him, but he makes mistakes. Ole Miss' ability to drive the baseball on those mistakes is the key.
Dan won't want him to throw much more than 85 pitches, so it's also possible to get him out of there. But it's a tall order. Bloop, blast and Nikhazy throwing a gem is the key in this one -- at least on paper.
Detmers struck out 167 and walked 33 in 113.1 innings as a sophomore, giving up 30 extra base hits. He greatly increased his command from his freshman season, when he walked 34 in 55.2 innings. I'll show you how he did that in a second.
But here's the deal: his breaking ball is what makes him go. The fastball is going to be in the low 90s, but he's not going to blow you away with velocity. He's going to throw a two-seamer with some movement and pinpoint it to both sides of the plate when he's not throwing this wipeout breaking ball. It's a plus pitch that is the reason he has crazy strikeout numbers. Take some blood pressure meds if you're heart rate spikes when Ole Miss waves at a ball you think they shouldn't swing at. It's a 1/7 curveball that's a hammer with great depth. Any inconsistency with it is more about where he starts it instead of hanging it. It has a lot of spin and he does a really good job of tunneling (throwing all pitches from the same arm slot) both the fastball and breaking ball.
This video is of him as a freshman when he walked too many and struggled with command at times on all his pitches. See how he's closed off on his front side and his arm slot was more three-quarters with it slinging out of his hand somewhat? Compare that to this video below.
This is from Team USA last summer, and you can see he gets out over his front side better and his arm slot has more extension. The breaking ball does come out a touch higher of an arm slot, but I'm not sure that's able to be picked up in real time. That curveball is just devastating for left-handers. He reminds me of Brendan McKay with a little less velocity. He really improved his lower-half mechanics from year one to year two, and he replicates it exceptionally well, especially out of the stretch.
The good news for Ole Miss is he will miss up in the zone some, and it's not hard enough to make it dumb to swing at it. Detmers' fastball also flattens out when it's up in the zone. It picks up movement the lower it is in the strike zone. You don't want to tell hitters to swing for the home run, but the path to beating him is barreling up mistakes high in the zone for extra bases.
Clemson beat him twice last year, hitting three home runs and a double off him in six innings the first time and then three doubles and a home run in four innings the second time. Virginia got him for six runs because of two doubles and two home runs. NC State scored five runs off two doubles and three home runs. It's hard to station to station him, but he makes mistakes. Ole Miss' ability to drive the baseball on those mistakes is the key.
Dan won't want him to throw much more than 85 pitches, so it's also possible to get him out of there. But it's a tall order. Bloop, blast and Nikhazy throwing a gem is the key in this one -- at least on paper.
