Ok, now that we have some certainty about available personnel for the big game with Alabama, let's talk big picture, small picture, games within the game, and all of the trimmings that make college football what it is. Football, at any level, is all about matchups. How do you match up with the opponent you are playing. Here is my humble attempt to break down the matchup of our Offense v Their Defense.
1. Ole Miss Offense vs Alabama Defense.
Laremy Tunsil not playing swings this pendulum back more towards Alabama than it did previously. Alabama has a very good front seven. That fact is not debatable. Are they impenetrable like the vaunted 2011 Alabama defense that gave up single digit points for the year and shutout LSU in the BCSCG? Definitely not. Are they better than the defense we played against last year? Without LT at left tackle, possibly. Are we better on offense than we were last year, even without LT in the lineup? Most definitely. Here are some questions to ponder when considering how these 2 units match up?
A. Is the Alabama secondary that could not control LaQuon (or Vince) any better than last year?
B. Will Reggie Ragland and Reuben Foster be able to cover Evan Engram any better than they did last year?
C. Are our "other" offensive linemen any better than they were last year?
D. Is Chad Kelly an upgrade at QB over Bo?
My answers to these questions are:
A. No. Cyrus Jones and Marlon Humphrey do not seem to be any better than they were last year(Humphrey did not play but he does not seem any better than Tony Brown). Alabama's defensive scheme puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the CB's because they use the safety's so much in run support and dare you to try to protect your QB long enough to beat them over the top. This is the same formula that defensive guru Saban used at LSU and his entire time at Alabama. We present problems schematically because our receivers are so big and athletic and EE is such a hard matchup for the big hulking linebackers that Saban recruits.
B. No. This is a key facet of the game in my opinion. Evan Engram and our other inside receivers should have openings in the Alabama secondary just like they did last year, unless Saban does something really out of character for him and commits more players to stopping the pass. Again, this is a schematic issue. Alabama puts a lot of pressure on their linebackers to cover the seam and those big guys just have problems against a team with athletic inside personnel, such as Ole Miss (also against Oklahoma in the Sugar a few years back). This is where a player like EE causes problems. IF EE does not have a big day it will mean that they made a schematic change, which SHOULD open up the running game more. Pick your poison.
C. YES! We have everyone back and they are all in much better shape than last year. Missing Tunsil will hurt, no doubt. That said, we are significantly improved at every position on the line. We are slowly building depth there. Fahn Cooper must have a good game and the ability of Robert Conyers to play near full speed is going to be the key to success.
D. YES! Bo had a great game last year against Alabama, but they had no fear of the deep ball with him under center. Yes, I know the tying touchdown was a "deep" throw to Vince, but we were on the 34 yard line and Vince caught it at the goal line, so that really wasn't deep. CK brings a dynamic to our offense not seen in CHF's tenure, the ability to stretch the field. This factor should lead to opening up the running game, even with no Laremy Tunsil.
Key Stats to watch:
Rushing Yards: CHF will be "creative" in finding a running game. Jaylen Walton needs to average 5 yards per touch. Anything over 100 yards rushing for the Rebels should = an Ole Miss win.
Passing Yards: CK will need to have at least 250 yards for the Rebels to win. Also, inside this stat, how many receiving yards does Evan Engram have? Anything over 250 total for the team is gravy.
Turnovers: If Ole Miss can manage to not turn the ball over more than once, we will win. We might survive with 2, depending on where and when they are. 3+ and we are in trouble.
Sacks: Fahn Cooper is the key here. We have to protect our QB to win. I think we can win if CK is sacked 4 times or less. More than 4 and we could have problems.
Explosive Plays (20+ yards): If Ole Miss has 5 or more of these, we will win. Could win with 3-4, but will need some external to the numbers plays to win. Less than 3 = trouble for the visitors.
Penalties: We must not be our own biggest enemy. We have the offense to overcome getting behind the sticks, but when that happens it eliminates a lot of guesswork for the Alabama D and allows them to come after CK. We need to keep their staff guessing.
Time of Possession: This statistic is completely irrelevant in this game. Look for Alabama to try to disrupt our offense with substitution. The chess match in the personnel groupings will be interesting to watch.
Final Thoughts
Q: Can Ole Miss score more than 21 points in this game?
A: An EMPHATIC YES! 22+ is the magic number for the Rebels, in my humble opinion. Anything more than that is just increasing the margin of victory. Yes, I know we have played 2 inferior opponents, but this team is just loaded with weapons. You just can't stop them all and we match up favorably with Alabama at several positions. I sincerely believe that our offense is the best in the country. I did not say conference, I said, the country. If we go to Tuscaloosa and play anywhere near to our potential. we could score 40 on them. I really believe that. Ok Rebels, I have jumped out here on this plank, don't leave out here alone. Make it happen. Later this evening, I will give my analysis of our Defense v their Offense. Go Rebels! Beat Alabama!
1. Ole Miss Offense vs Alabama Defense.
Laremy Tunsil not playing swings this pendulum back more towards Alabama than it did previously. Alabama has a very good front seven. That fact is not debatable. Are they impenetrable like the vaunted 2011 Alabama defense that gave up single digit points for the year and shutout LSU in the BCSCG? Definitely not. Are they better than the defense we played against last year? Without LT at left tackle, possibly. Are we better on offense than we were last year, even without LT in the lineup? Most definitely. Here are some questions to ponder when considering how these 2 units match up?
A. Is the Alabama secondary that could not control LaQuon (or Vince) any better than last year?
B. Will Reggie Ragland and Reuben Foster be able to cover Evan Engram any better than they did last year?
C. Are our "other" offensive linemen any better than they were last year?
D. Is Chad Kelly an upgrade at QB over Bo?
My answers to these questions are:
A. No. Cyrus Jones and Marlon Humphrey do not seem to be any better than they were last year(Humphrey did not play but he does not seem any better than Tony Brown). Alabama's defensive scheme puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the CB's because they use the safety's so much in run support and dare you to try to protect your QB long enough to beat them over the top. This is the same formula that defensive guru Saban used at LSU and his entire time at Alabama. We present problems schematically because our receivers are so big and athletic and EE is such a hard matchup for the big hulking linebackers that Saban recruits.
B. No. This is a key facet of the game in my opinion. Evan Engram and our other inside receivers should have openings in the Alabama secondary just like they did last year, unless Saban does something really out of character for him and commits more players to stopping the pass. Again, this is a schematic issue. Alabama puts a lot of pressure on their linebackers to cover the seam and those big guys just have problems against a team with athletic inside personnel, such as Ole Miss (also against Oklahoma in the Sugar a few years back). This is where a player like EE causes problems. IF EE does not have a big day it will mean that they made a schematic change, which SHOULD open up the running game more. Pick your poison.
C. YES! We have everyone back and they are all in much better shape than last year. Missing Tunsil will hurt, no doubt. That said, we are significantly improved at every position on the line. We are slowly building depth there. Fahn Cooper must have a good game and the ability of Robert Conyers to play near full speed is going to be the key to success.
D. YES! Bo had a great game last year against Alabama, but they had no fear of the deep ball with him under center. Yes, I know the tying touchdown was a "deep" throw to Vince, but we were on the 34 yard line and Vince caught it at the goal line, so that really wasn't deep. CK brings a dynamic to our offense not seen in CHF's tenure, the ability to stretch the field. This factor should lead to opening up the running game, even with no Laremy Tunsil.
Key Stats to watch:
Rushing Yards: CHF will be "creative" in finding a running game. Jaylen Walton needs to average 5 yards per touch. Anything over 100 yards rushing for the Rebels should = an Ole Miss win.
Passing Yards: CK will need to have at least 250 yards for the Rebels to win. Also, inside this stat, how many receiving yards does Evan Engram have? Anything over 250 total for the team is gravy.
Turnovers: If Ole Miss can manage to not turn the ball over more than once, we will win. We might survive with 2, depending on where and when they are. 3+ and we are in trouble.
Sacks: Fahn Cooper is the key here. We have to protect our QB to win. I think we can win if CK is sacked 4 times or less. More than 4 and we could have problems.
Explosive Plays (20+ yards): If Ole Miss has 5 or more of these, we will win. Could win with 3-4, but will need some external to the numbers plays to win. Less than 3 = trouble for the visitors.
Penalties: We must not be our own biggest enemy. We have the offense to overcome getting behind the sticks, but when that happens it eliminates a lot of guesswork for the Alabama D and allows them to come after CK. We need to keep their staff guessing.
Time of Possession: This statistic is completely irrelevant in this game. Look for Alabama to try to disrupt our offense with substitution. The chess match in the personnel groupings will be interesting to watch.
Final Thoughts
Q: Can Ole Miss score more than 21 points in this game?
A: An EMPHATIC YES! 22+ is the magic number for the Rebels, in my humble opinion. Anything more than that is just increasing the margin of victory. Yes, I know we have played 2 inferior opponents, but this team is just loaded with weapons. You just can't stop them all and we match up favorably with Alabama at several positions. I sincerely believe that our offense is the best in the country. I did not say conference, I said, the country. If we go to Tuscaloosa and play anywhere near to our potential. we could score 40 on them. I really believe that. Ok Rebels, I have jumped out here on this plank, don't leave out here alone. Make it happen. Later this evening, I will give my analysis of our Defense v their Offense. Go Rebels! Beat Alabama!
