I've run a spreadsheet to check Pythagorean expectations for SEC baseball teams to try to get a sense of how teams have performed relative to their W-L records and how we might expect the rest of the season to play out. I've run them on the full-season numbers and the conference-only numbers (which are a very small sample size, so a big grain of salt) with the traditional exponent of 2 and with optimized exponents (basically, I optimized the exponent to minimize the difference between actual and expected current records). The expected end-of-season win totals are calculated by (Current Wins) + [(Expected Win %) * (Remaining Games)).
Takeaways:
First, bear in mind that this does not incorporate strength of schedule at all. It's purely based on runs scored and runs allowed, and the goal of it is to try to capture how a team has actually performed on the field better than the straight record.
Based on all games, Ole Miss is the #5 team in the conference. Solid. But our strength of schedule outside of conference play is GARBAGE. With two weeks of conference play (admittedly a small sample size), we appear to kind of suck. We've scored 40 runs to our opponents' 53. We're squarely in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs allowed all season -- but you have to bear in mind that we have lost a fair few defensive innings to run rules. In conference play, only UGA has allowed more runs. Our vaunted offense is currently sitting at 8th in the conference in runs scored.
We are currently projected to win 11 or 12 conference games in total.
With all that said, Tennessee is the real deal. They aren't where they are from a bunch of close, lucky wins. Their record is one game better than one would expect from their run differential. If they play the rest of the season to the overall expectation, they'll finish 57-3 or 56-4. If they play the rest of the conference slate to the conference expectation, they'll finish with 27-29 wins. They're astonishingly good. They could significantly underperform and still win more than 20 conference games.
Our pitching is just godawful, so I don't expect this team to turn things around and have any real success this year at all, but because Tennessee is just so damn good, it wouldn't surprise me for us to overperform the expectation and win 13 or 14 conference games. But holy shit does our pitching suck. We have a team ERA in conference play of 8.83. That's one of the most horrifying baseball stats I've seen in my life. We're worst in the conference in hits allowed, batting average against, and OPS against. We're second-worst in the conference in runs allowed, earned runs allowed, extra-base hits allowed, slugging percentage against, baserunners allowed, and on-base percentage against. The only meaningful pitching stats in which we're even in the top half of the conference are strikeouts (6th), home runs allowed (T-7th), and hit batsmen (2nd).
The only stat in which our offense is really doing well in-conference is home runs. We're in the bottom half of the conference in average, runs scored, slugging, on-base percentage, and OPS. We're outside the top 10 in the conference in BA, OBP, and OPS.
These new heights are just absolutely incredible!
Here are the Pythagorean numbers:
Overall, Exp = 2
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.958 57-3
2 VU 0.881 52-8
3 ARK 0.818 49-11
4 LSU 0.793 46-14
5 OM 0.776 45-15
6 AUB 0.775 45-15
7 UF 0.758 44-16
8 MSU 0.710 40-20
9 MIZZ 0.664 40-20
10 UK 0.659 40-20
11 UGA 0.644 41-19
12 BAMA 0.630 36-24
13 TAMU 0.596 36-24
14 SC 0.511 31-29
Overall, Exp = 1.55
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.918 56-4
2 VU 0.826 50-10
3 ARK 0.763 47-13
4 LSU 0.739 44-16
5 OM 0.724 43-17
6 AUB 0.724 43-17
7 UF 0.708 43-17
8 MSU 0.668 38-22
9 MIZZ 0.629 38-22
10 UK 0.625 39-21
11 UGA 0.613 40-20
12 BAMA 0.602 35-25
13 TAMU 0.575 35-25
14 SC 0.509 31-29
Conference, Exp = 2
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.943 29-1
2 VU 0.814 24-6
3 ARK 0.728 22-8
4 LSU 0.630 18-12
5 MSU 0.532 16-14
6 UK 0.514 14-16
7 TAMU 0.512 15-15
8 AUB 0.480 15-15
9 BAMA 0.425 12-18
10 UF 0.408 13-17
11 OM 0.363 11-19
12 UGA 0.332 11-19
13 SC 0.208 7-23
14 MIZZ 0.186 5-25
Conference, Exp = 1.39
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.876 27-3
2 VU 0.736 22-8
3 ARK 0.665 21-9
4 LSU 0.592 17-13
5 MSU 0.522 16-14
6 UK 0.510 14-16
7 TAMU 0.508 15-15
8 AUB 0.486 15-15
9 BAMA 0.448 13-17
10 UF 0.436 13-17
11 OM 0.403 12-18
12 UGA 0.381 12-18
13 SC 0.283 9-21
14 MIZZ 0.264 7-23
Takeaways:
First, bear in mind that this does not incorporate strength of schedule at all. It's purely based on runs scored and runs allowed, and the goal of it is to try to capture how a team has actually performed on the field better than the straight record.
Based on all games, Ole Miss is the #5 team in the conference. Solid. But our strength of schedule outside of conference play is GARBAGE. With two weeks of conference play (admittedly a small sample size), we appear to kind of suck. We've scored 40 runs to our opponents' 53. We're squarely in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs allowed all season -- but you have to bear in mind that we have lost a fair few defensive innings to run rules. In conference play, only UGA has allowed more runs. Our vaunted offense is currently sitting at 8th in the conference in runs scored.
We are currently projected to win 11 or 12 conference games in total.
With all that said, Tennessee is the real deal. They aren't where they are from a bunch of close, lucky wins. Their record is one game better than one would expect from their run differential. If they play the rest of the season to the overall expectation, they'll finish 57-3 or 56-4. If they play the rest of the conference slate to the conference expectation, they'll finish with 27-29 wins. They're astonishingly good. They could significantly underperform and still win more than 20 conference games.
Our pitching is just godawful, so I don't expect this team to turn things around and have any real success this year at all, but because Tennessee is just so damn good, it wouldn't surprise me for us to overperform the expectation and win 13 or 14 conference games. But holy shit does our pitching suck. We have a team ERA in conference play of 8.83. That's one of the most horrifying baseball stats I've seen in my life. We're worst in the conference in hits allowed, batting average against, and OPS against. We're second-worst in the conference in runs allowed, earned runs allowed, extra-base hits allowed, slugging percentage against, baserunners allowed, and on-base percentage against. The only meaningful pitching stats in which we're even in the top half of the conference are strikeouts (6th), home runs allowed (T-7th), and hit batsmen (2nd).
The only stat in which our offense is really doing well in-conference is home runs. We're in the bottom half of the conference in average, runs scored, slugging, on-base percentage, and OPS. We're outside the top 10 in the conference in BA, OBP, and OPS.
These new heights are just absolutely incredible!
Here are the Pythagorean numbers:
Overall, Exp = 2
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.958 57-3
2 VU 0.881 52-8
3 ARK 0.818 49-11
4 LSU 0.793 46-14
5 OM 0.776 45-15
6 AUB 0.775 45-15
7 UF 0.758 44-16
8 MSU 0.710 40-20
9 MIZZ 0.664 40-20
10 UK 0.659 40-20
11 UGA 0.644 41-19
12 BAMA 0.630 36-24
13 TAMU 0.596 36-24
14 SC 0.511 31-29
Overall, Exp = 1.55
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.918 56-4
2 VU 0.826 50-10
3 ARK 0.763 47-13
4 LSU 0.739 44-16
5 OM 0.724 43-17
6 AUB 0.724 43-17
7 UF 0.708 43-17
8 MSU 0.668 38-22
9 MIZZ 0.629 38-22
10 UK 0.625 39-21
11 UGA 0.613 40-20
12 BAMA 0.602 35-25
13 TAMU 0.575 35-25
14 SC 0.509 31-29
Conference, Exp = 2
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.943 29-1
2 VU 0.814 24-6
3 ARK 0.728 22-8
4 LSU 0.630 18-12
5 MSU 0.532 16-14
6 UK 0.514 14-16
7 TAMU 0.512 15-15
8 AUB 0.480 15-15
9 BAMA 0.425 12-18
10 UF 0.408 13-17
11 OM 0.363 11-19
12 UGA 0.332 11-19
13 SC 0.208 7-23
14 MIZZ 0.186 5-25
Conference, Exp = 1.39
Rank Team W% Final Record
1 TENN 0.876 27-3
2 VU 0.736 22-8
3 ARK 0.665 21-9
4 LSU 0.592 17-13
5 MSU 0.522 16-14
6 UK 0.510 14-16
7 TAMU 0.508 15-15
8 AUB 0.486 15-15
9 BAMA 0.448 13-17
10 UF 0.436 13-17
11 OM 0.403 12-18
12 UGA 0.381 12-18
13 SC 0.283 9-21
14 MIZZ 0.264 7-23
