Setting aside predispositions, biases, wants and desires - what happens next Tuesday as things stand on Saturday morning?
I think Trump's momentum is over as of today and I don't believe the last week's momentum is quite enough. The race ends up much tighter than anyone thought would happen which saves the Republican majorities but the Repubs lose a seat or two. Trump loses 47-44 nationwide. Trump wins AZ, OH, IA and Nevada but loses FL, NC and NH. Trump loses PA less than Romney did - less than150k votes.
Fast forward: Clinton's troubles as president lead to Repub gains in 2018.
Caveats - if the African American vote trends more to 10% than 13% Trump has a chance. If the female vote ends up at a 5-6 point differential instead of 8-10 Trump has a chance. If there is an unbalanced number of white males over 50 years old who vote (which cuts against historical trends) Trump may very well win.
I think Trump's momentum is over as of today and I don't believe the last week's momentum is quite enough. The race ends up much tighter than anyone thought would happen which saves the Republican majorities but the Repubs lose a seat or two. Trump loses 47-44 nationwide. Trump wins AZ, OH, IA and Nevada but loses FL, NC and NH. Trump loses PA less than Romney did - less than150k votes.
Fast forward: Clinton's troubles as president lead to Repub gains in 2018.
Caveats - if the African American vote trends more to 10% than 13% Trump has a chance. If the female vote ends up at a 5-6 point differential instead of 8-10 Trump has a chance. If there is an unbalanced number of white males over 50 years old who vote (which cuts against historical trends) Trump may very well win.
