Ole Miss is sitting at 31-24 right now and 13-16 in the SEC. That's three straight losses and two runs in 27 innings. The Rebels are 5-for-43 with runners on base during those three games.
Obviously Ole Miss pretty much has to win today to have any shot at NCAA Tournament play. The only 13-17 team that last five years to make the NCAAs is Auburn a couple years ago, but the RPI was at 18. Ole Miss sits double that this morning.
At 14-16 there's still a chance, as 5 of the last 7 teams that have finished with 14 SEC wins have made the NCAA Tournament. However, none had an RPI worse than 28. There hasn't been a 13-win team with an RPI in the 30s. The ones who didn't make had RPIs worse than 50 so not a good history sample.
At 14-16 Hoover very likely comes into play because the committee obviously has the human understanding of conference record in the regular season, but that's not how it's presented. The SEC Tourney records are included in conference record. So if Ole Miss won today but lost on Tuesday the SEC record is 14-17. Not exactly sexy.
The bubble is horrid, so that helps Ole Miss' chances. But I do think the SEC has a baseline, to some extent, it has to meet for at-large berths, regardless of bubble strength. I talked to Kendall last night, and he said at 14-17 Ole Miss would be in severe trouble unless every conference tournament with bid stealers went scratch. That's been my thought for a while. At 13-17 a huge run is needed to even get in the conversation, and at 13-18 the season is over.
Ole Miss can be the 9, 10 or 11 seed in the SEC Tournament. If Ole Miss wins today it is the 9 seed. If Ole Miss loses and South Carolina or Mizzou win then the Rebels are the 10 seed. If Ole Miss loses and both the other two win then the Rebels are the 11 seed.
Ole Miss has tiebreaker over Missouri. South Carolina would have tiebreaker on Ole Miss courtesy of winning one game against Florida.
Obviously Ole Miss pretty much has to win today to have any shot at NCAA Tournament play. The only 13-17 team that last five years to make the NCAAs is Auburn a couple years ago, but the RPI was at 18. Ole Miss sits double that this morning.
At 14-16 there's still a chance, as 5 of the last 7 teams that have finished with 14 SEC wins have made the NCAA Tournament. However, none had an RPI worse than 28. There hasn't been a 13-win team with an RPI in the 30s. The ones who didn't make had RPIs worse than 50 so not a good history sample.
At 14-16 Hoover very likely comes into play because the committee obviously has the human understanding of conference record in the regular season, but that's not how it's presented. The SEC Tourney records are included in conference record. So if Ole Miss won today but lost on Tuesday the SEC record is 14-17. Not exactly sexy.
The bubble is horrid, so that helps Ole Miss' chances. But I do think the SEC has a baseline, to some extent, it has to meet for at-large berths, regardless of bubble strength. I talked to Kendall last night, and he said at 14-17 Ole Miss would be in severe trouble unless every conference tournament with bid stealers went scratch. That's been my thought for a while. At 13-17 a huge run is needed to even get in the conversation, and at 13-18 the season is over.
Ole Miss can be the 9, 10 or 11 seed in the SEC Tournament. If Ole Miss wins today it is the 9 seed. If Ole Miss loses and South Carolina or Mizzou win then the Rebels are the 10 seed. If Ole Miss loses and both the other two win then the Rebels are the 11 seed.
Ole Miss has tiebreaker over Missouri. South Carolina would have tiebreaker on Ole Miss courtesy of winning one game against Florida.
