Testing Data
~1.03 million tests yesterday.
~54.8k positives with percentage positive at ~5.3%
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 30742--> 30697--> 30108--> 29942--> 30099--> 31346--> 32124--> 34322 (+11%)
ICU..... 6173----> 6106----> 5997----> 5944----> 6209----> 6438--> 6509---> 6621 (+7%)
Vent... 1547----> 1533----> 1504-----> 1488-----> 1515-----> 1609--> 1646---> 1638 (+6%)
Up all around. Looks like we are in this rise for about 3 weeks... again, the top all depends on when FL and TX begin to fall again. CA is near/at the floor IMO.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 204,566 per CTP. 47% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 975 deaths today.
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)
324--> 287--> 821-> 1138-> 940-> 844-> 866 = 5220 (-6%)
307--> 257-> 739-> 1061-> 851--> 835-> 740 = 4790 (-9%)
361--> 325-> 635--> 916-> 975
State Data
Mississippi. Deaths 23, 10 were legacy. 41% of deaths in NH's.
578 cases. 125 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 431--> 419--> 412--> 393--> 427--> 455--> 457--> 472 (+10%)
ICU... 134--> 124--> 132---> 125--> 128---> 125--> 127--> 139 (+4%)
Vent.. 68---> 70---> 69----> 59---> 64----> 58--> 62---> 66(-3%)
Still up some today. If we continue to follow the syndromic surveillance (SS), it should decline again soon:
There should be another update to that tomorrow. We are up ~20% from the low of 393 and I'd say we are the same locally. Running around 19-20 normally, currently at 24 I believe. Over the last month, I could have predicted these daily numbers, or been really close, just by looking at the local numbers and adding another 95%. We tend to run about 5% of the state's total on a daily basis pretty consistently now. We are settling into our floor but I think its a bit lower than this. Also, in looking at our neighbors, LA and AL both have downward trending SS data. Our neighbor that doesn't is TN. If you count AR as a neighbor, they are up slightly as well.
Texas. Deaths, 104. 29% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3190--> 3227--> 3195--> 3192--> 3318--> 3394--> 3519--> 3556 (+11%)
Florida. Deaths, 170. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2080--> 2056--> 2037--> 2040--> 2118--> 2151--> 2121--> 2141 (+3%)
Georgia. Deaths, 35, 36% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1307-->1270--> 1257-->1273--> 1280--> 1287--> 1280--> 1284 (-2%)
Alabama. Deaths, 36. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 760--> 752--> 738--> 757--> 791--> 764--> 777--> 754 (-1%).
California. Deaths, 133. 37% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3205--> 3166--> 3079--> 3129--> 3146--> 3175--> 3204--> 3186 (-1%)
Arkansas. Deaths, 21. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 479--> 473--> 474--> 499--> 516--> 523--> 538--> 546 (+11%)
Tennessee. Deaths, 63. 29% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 873--> 855--> 855--> 835--> 850--> 958-->971--> 973 (+11%)
SS is up here:
Explains the recent rise. It's small but that's all it takes to send hospitalizations back up for a while.
South Carolina. Deaths, 12. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 709--> 679--> 686--> 599--> 593--> 655--> 707--> 716 (-0%)
SS back up here just a bit as well in SC. Very small rise.
North Carolina. Deaths, 29. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 939--> 921--> 921--> 907--> 971--> 1013--> 1028--> 1051 (+7%)
SS way down in the last several days. This is the only state with #'s going in the wrong direction of SS.
Wisconsin. 9 deaths. 34% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 669--> 663--> 692--> 714--> 782--> 853--> 873--> 907 (+35%)
Population of this state is comparable to Alabama. Alabama peak hospitalization number was 1605. I doubt Wisconsin gets there given this is a healthier population. The inflection point here was mid September and the rise lasts 4-5 weeks past that point.
Iowa. Deaths, 6. 52% of deaths in NH's.
407--> 393--> 402--> 392--> 389--> 413--> 444--> 449 (+10%)
I was going to start showing SD numbers but things are improving there. While total hospitalizations have risen this week, new admits this week vs last are down 42%. Pretty clear inflection point here on 9/8. It is exactly one month past that date. Things are looking up there. ND is on more of a Wisconsin timeline as is UT. Wyoming is a bit later than ND/WI/UT and probably peaks towards the end of the month. OH is rising as well and so is SS in the state... just a bit.
Comments:
1. This is in WaPo... better late than never I guess. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/08/its-past-time-schools-reopen/
"It’s becoming increasingly clear that school closings are not protecting us from coronavirus spreads. They are instead a particularly awful form of coronavirus safety theater, one that will not only alter the life trajectories of millions of vulnerable people, but also set our nation on a path it could take decades to recover from — if it recovers at all."
2. https://www.city-journal.org/lockdowns-must-end
"In a comparison of 50 countries, a team led by Rabail Chaudhry of the University of Toronto found that Covid was deadlier in places with older populations and higher rates of obesity, but the mortality rate was no lower in countries that closed their borders or enforced full lockdowns. After analyzing 23 countries and 25 U.S. states with widely varying policies, Andrew Atkeson of UCLA and fellow economists found that the mortality trend was similar everywhere once the disease took hold: the number of daily deaths rose rapidly for 20 to 30 days, and then fell rapidly."
"Similar conclusions were reached in analyses of Covid deaths in Europe. By studying the time lag between infection and death, Simon Wood of the University of Edinburgh concluded that infections in Britain were already declining before the nation’s lockdown began in late March. In an analysis of Germany’s 412 counties, Thomas Wieland of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology found that infections were waning in most of the country before the national lockdown began and that the additional curfews imposed in Bavaria and other states had no effect."
3. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investig...r-in-place-orders-are-killing-people/2376796/
“We know that 95% of the population has practically minimal risk,” he said, adding “It's unlikely that in the current situation we are really saving lives. I think that probably we're killing people by following some of these measures for forever.”
4. If you think a vaccine will fix this... I have bad news:
To make the math easy, an average of 16% effectiveness for a virus with an iFR of ~0.2% = iFR of 0.17% with a vaccine.
5. Countries reporting record increases in new coronavirus "cases" today:
- Argentina: +16,447
- Netherlands: +5,831
- Ukraine: +5,397
- Czech Republic: +5,335
- Indonesia: +4,850
- Iran: +4,392
- Nepal: +4,364
- Poland: +4,280
- Austria: +1,209
- Slovakia: +1,037
- Bulgaria: +437
6. As of August 2020, State Unemployment Rates:
NY: 12.5%
CA: 11.4%
FL: 7.4%
TX: 6.8%
Remind me which ones locked down the most?
7. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext
"The vaccine scenarios will require that the mitigation measures employed worldwide continue for a few years at least... interventions must continue indefinitely... This is the new normal."
This is what we are dealing with... that is lunacy.
8. Did you know the heat wave in France of 2003 killed more people than CV19 did this year? Yeah...
9. Class warfare? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...r-times-as-likely-to-face-lockdown-as-richest
10. Couple of Ivermectin plugs:
www.adelaidenow.com.au
www.saladillodiario.com.ar
Use google translate for the latter.
11. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3672334
Study shows Lockdowns massively increase death rates of dementia and mentally ill people.
*50% more deaths for dementia
*130% more deaths for mentally ill
Do these deaths matter?
Be back Sunday, have a great weekend.
Cheers RGers
~1.03 million tests yesterday.
~54.8k positives with percentage positive at ~5.3%
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 30742--> 30697--> 30108--> 29942--> 30099--> 31346--> 32124--> 34322 (+11%)
ICU..... 6173----> 6106----> 5997----> 5944----> 6209----> 6438--> 6509---> 6621 (+7%)
Vent... 1547----> 1533----> 1504-----> 1488-----> 1515-----> 1609--> 1646---> 1638 (+6%)
Up all around. Looks like we are in this rise for about 3 weeks... again, the top all depends on when FL and TX begin to fall again. CA is near/at the floor IMO.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 204,566 per CTP. 47% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 975 deaths today.
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)
324--> 287--> 821-> 1138-> 940-> 844-> 866 = 5220 (-6%)
307--> 257-> 739-> 1061-> 851--> 835-> 740 = 4790 (-9%)
361--> 325-> 635--> 916-> 975
State Data
Mississippi. Deaths 23, 10 were legacy. 41% of deaths in NH's.
578 cases. 125 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 431--> 419--> 412--> 393--> 427--> 455--> 457--> 472 (+10%)
ICU... 134--> 124--> 132---> 125--> 128---> 125--> 127--> 139 (+4%)
Vent.. 68---> 70---> 69----> 59---> 64----> 58--> 62---> 66(-3%)
Still up some today. If we continue to follow the syndromic surveillance (SS), it should decline again soon:
There should be another update to that tomorrow. We are up ~20% from the low of 393 and I'd say we are the same locally. Running around 19-20 normally, currently at 24 I believe. Over the last month, I could have predicted these daily numbers, or been really close, just by looking at the local numbers and adding another 95%. We tend to run about 5% of the state's total on a daily basis pretty consistently now. We are settling into our floor but I think its a bit lower than this. Also, in looking at our neighbors, LA and AL both have downward trending SS data. Our neighbor that doesn't is TN. If you count AR as a neighbor, they are up slightly as well.
Texas. Deaths, 104. 29% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3190--> 3227--> 3195--> 3192--> 3318--> 3394--> 3519--> 3556 (+11%)
Florida. Deaths, 170. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2080--> 2056--> 2037--> 2040--> 2118--> 2151--> 2121--> 2141 (+3%)
Georgia. Deaths, 35, 36% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1307-->1270--> 1257-->1273--> 1280--> 1287--> 1280--> 1284 (-2%)
Alabama. Deaths, 36. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 760--> 752--> 738--> 757--> 791--> 764--> 777--> 754 (-1%).
California. Deaths, 133. 37% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3205--> 3166--> 3079--> 3129--> 3146--> 3175--> 3204--> 3186 (-1%)
Arkansas. Deaths, 21. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 479--> 473--> 474--> 499--> 516--> 523--> 538--> 546 (+11%)
Tennessee. Deaths, 63. 29% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 873--> 855--> 855--> 835--> 850--> 958-->971--> 973 (+11%)
SS is up here:
Explains the recent rise. It's small but that's all it takes to send hospitalizations back up for a while.
South Carolina. Deaths, 12. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 709--> 679--> 686--> 599--> 593--> 655--> 707--> 716 (-0%)
SS back up here just a bit as well in SC. Very small rise.
North Carolina. Deaths, 29. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 939--> 921--> 921--> 907--> 971--> 1013--> 1028--> 1051 (+7%)
SS way down in the last several days. This is the only state with #'s going in the wrong direction of SS.
Wisconsin. 9 deaths. 34% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 669--> 663--> 692--> 714--> 782--> 853--> 873--> 907 (+35%)
Population of this state is comparable to Alabama. Alabama peak hospitalization number was 1605. I doubt Wisconsin gets there given this is a healthier population. The inflection point here was mid September and the rise lasts 4-5 weeks past that point.
Iowa. Deaths, 6. 52% of deaths in NH's.
407--> 393--> 402--> 392--> 389--> 413--> 444--> 449 (+10%)
I was going to start showing SD numbers but things are improving there. While total hospitalizations have risen this week, new admits this week vs last are down 42%. Pretty clear inflection point here on 9/8. It is exactly one month past that date. Things are looking up there. ND is on more of a Wisconsin timeline as is UT. Wyoming is a bit later than ND/WI/UT and probably peaks towards the end of the month. OH is rising as well and so is SS in the state... just a bit.
Comments:
1. This is in WaPo... better late than never I guess. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/08/its-past-time-schools-reopen/
"It’s becoming increasingly clear that school closings are not protecting us from coronavirus spreads. They are instead a particularly awful form of coronavirus safety theater, one that will not only alter the life trajectories of millions of vulnerable people, but also set our nation on a path it could take decades to recover from — if it recovers at all."
2. https://www.city-journal.org/lockdowns-must-end
"In a comparison of 50 countries, a team led by Rabail Chaudhry of the University of Toronto found that Covid was deadlier in places with older populations and higher rates of obesity, but the mortality rate was no lower in countries that closed their borders or enforced full lockdowns. After analyzing 23 countries and 25 U.S. states with widely varying policies, Andrew Atkeson of UCLA and fellow economists found that the mortality trend was similar everywhere once the disease took hold: the number of daily deaths rose rapidly for 20 to 30 days, and then fell rapidly."
"Similar conclusions were reached in analyses of Covid deaths in Europe. By studying the time lag between infection and death, Simon Wood of the University of Edinburgh concluded that infections in Britain were already declining before the nation’s lockdown began in late March. In an analysis of Germany’s 412 counties, Thomas Wieland of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology found that infections were waning in most of the country before the national lockdown began and that the additional curfews imposed in Bavaria and other states had no effect."
3. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/investig...r-in-place-orders-are-killing-people/2376796/
“We know that 95% of the population has practically minimal risk,” he said, adding “It's unlikely that in the current situation we are really saving lives. I think that probably we're killing people by following some of these measures for forever.”
4. If you think a vaccine will fix this... I have bad news:
To make the math easy, an average of 16% effectiveness for a virus with an iFR of ~0.2% = iFR of 0.17% with a vaccine.
5. Countries reporting record increases in new coronavirus "cases" today:
- Argentina: +16,447
- Netherlands: +5,831
- Ukraine: +5,397
- Czech Republic: +5,335
- Indonesia: +4,850
- Iran: +4,392
- Nepal: +4,364
- Poland: +4,280
- Austria: +1,209
- Slovakia: +1,037
- Bulgaria: +437
6. As of August 2020, State Unemployment Rates:
NY: 12.5%
CA: 11.4%
FL: 7.4%
TX: 6.8%
Remind me which ones locked down the most?
7. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext
"The vaccine scenarios will require that the mitigation measures employed worldwide continue for a few years at least... interventions must continue indefinitely... This is the new normal."
This is what we are dealing with... that is lunacy.
8. Did you know the heat wave in France of 2003 killed more people than CV19 did this year? Yeah...
9. Class warfare? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...r-times-as-likely-to-face-lockdown-as-richest
10. Couple of Ivermectin plugs:
No Cookies | The Advertiser
Los dos remedios argentinos para tratar el coronavirus que estarán disponibles este mes
Pspan stylefont45weight boldspan stylebox45sizing inherit line45height inherit font45size 18pxpágina12spanspan stylefont45size 18px spanspanspan stylefont45size 18pxpudo averiguar que los dos medicam
11. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3672334
Study shows Lockdowns massively increase death rates of dementia and mentally ill people.
*50% more deaths for dementia
*130% more deaths for mentally ill
Do these deaths matter?
Be back Sunday, have a great weekend.
Cheers RGers
