Testing Data
~729k tests yesterday.
~39 million total tests performed to date.
~61k positives with percentage positive at ~8.3%.
Still a ton of tests. However, testing is still underreported. This is obvious for several reasons. First, many places are not reporting negative tests. Second, due to decreasing prevalence in many areas, false positives are becoming a real issue. I suspect we are underreporting negative tests by about 20-25%. Some Florida data says up to 30% of positives are same persons. More on that under the state below. Finally, I've read stories of testing shortages. While these are infrequent they have occurred. There is no way with 700-800k tests we can be stretching supply when we have the capacity for well over 1 million tests daily in the country. And its been a while since I checked, it's probably higher now.
63.4% of newly reported cases today came from 6 states. California, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Texas and South Carolina. Mississippi reported no negative tests today and neither did 7 other states. The percent positive nationally is NOT 8.3%, it is much closer to 5-6%. Also, those 6 states had a % positive of 11.8% which is down from the weekly average. The remainder of the states %+ was 5.5%.
The border is a problem. One single zip code, not a city, a single ZIP CODE, at the border in Yuma, AZ has more Covid cases than Alaska and Vermont have combined.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 38738--> 39749--> 41700--> 43004---> 43895--> 51544--> 51798--> 52578 (16.2%)
ICU... 5652---> 5680----> 5826----> 5867-----> 5839----> 5889---> 5928---> 5919 (4.7%)
Vent.. 2080---> 2105----> 2098----> 2172-----> 2127----> 2197---> 2169---> 2182 (4.9%)
61% of current national hospitalizations are in 5 states. Arizona, California, Georgia, Florida and Texas. 5 states--> 31,750, 44 states--> 20,651
ICU numbers dropped slightly and vent slightly increased. Both of those are negligible and within the margin of error day to day.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 127,677 per CTP. 52.1% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 476 deaths today. More backlog from NJ... everyday there is backlog from here. On a side note, NY did not have a single death today for the first time since it started.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476-->
Some interesting things you can find on the CDC's website. Friday they updated mortality as they usually do. Over 4k CV19 deaths added. The second most interesting thing in all of that... 65% of those deaths occurred OVER 1 month ago. The most interesting thing? The US as a whole is 5% above expected mortality for the year so far... 64k deaths. I told you this was going to happen. If not for NY/MA/NJ/IL/PA... we would be far under expected for the year. Perspective is important:
State Data
Texas. Deaths 80. 38.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 8181--> 8698--> 9286--> 9610--> 9689---> 10002--> 10083--> 10410 (+27%)
ICU: 2449--> 2517--> 2658--> 2730--> 2878----> 2923----> 2913----> 2995 (+22%)
I do like what the state looks like as a whole, slow deceleration across the board. ICU admit 7 day average is falling, ER visits have definitely hit the plateau for now and general bed admits have fallen as well recently.
However, you will think this is odd coming from me, I think Texas may need a field hospital set up in Hidalgo county due to cross border patients just in case. I'll explain below.
Houston area:
Pretty settled here now. I expect we'll see things improve here soon as it's been pretty flat from a hospital census perspective and ICU beds. ER visits are down which is our leading indicator of improvement. By the way, the overall hospital census here has been unchanged for 6 weeks.
Dallas area: 9 days straight of over 1000 cases but staying in that range. Everything has plateaued here. Cases, ER visits, ICU admits, census. 15% of beds, ICU beds and 58% of vents are available.
San Antonio... Everything is flat. 7-day moving average of ER visits did go slightly up the last two days. However, ICU admits are slightly down today. Not out of the woods here yet but better than last week.
Austin area... Census down slightly. ICU and vents remain stable. This despite the rise in cases that began ~6/20.
Hosp: 461--> 469--> 485--> 550--> 534--> 440--> 438--> 434.
Hidalgo... My concern here is the increasing ER visits as a percent of the total. For several days the percent of ER visits related to CV19 is over 50%. That is an incredible number. Never seen anything like that, even in AZ. My other concern being that this is not Houston or Dallas where hospital bed availability is like going to pick out a car. They aren't everywhere. The border counties will struggle with cross border cases if the volume gets too high. El Paso has seen an uptick as well which is not surprising but nothing like Hidalgo. Border counties are now responsible for 31% of the states deaths.
Florida. 45 deaths,. 50.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542
19% of ICU beds are available in the state. Florida reported the record number of cases today. It was awful... all over the news. Highest for any state ever. You know what not one person mentioned? How many tests they reported total and one other thing that is more important was missed...
Look at all the green. First, over 120k tests! Good grief that's a lot... and it's most definitely an under. More on that in a second. Lowest percent positive in two weeks as well. Perspective. Now, look at the ER visits and symptom curves... flattening. That is the most important finding on this entire page. So why is it an under? Glad you asked...
Those are labs and their respective percent positives.... 333 labs at 100%. Who in their right mind believes that nonsense? They are NOT reporting negatives. Peeps, this is just the 100% labs, the list goes on with pages more of labs with 99%, 98%, 97%... its a load of hot garbage. Florida probably did over 200k tests yesterday... minimum. The percent positive metric's usefulness is a dumpster fire inside of Dante's Inferno...
One more thing... the numbers are likely inflated.
https://justthenews.com/politics-po...ord-breaking-coronavirus-days-may-have-been-0
“Florida health officials appear to have inflated recent record coronavirus case numbers there by as much as 30%, according to an analysis of data released by the state's Department of Health.”
Disney World opened. I mean if Disney is now open in Florida... surely we can open schools right? Right?
I'm not done with Florida... Miami-Dade has had a mandatory mask order in place since April 9th.
Please explains how this is possible. And before you say compliance is the problem... nope:
In mid June county code enforcers checked 10,000 businesses and found a 99.6% compliance w/ CDC/County guidelines. How can this be happening you ask? BECAUSE IT SPREADS IN THE HOME! AND ITS AN AEROSOL!
Georgia. 5 deaths. 45.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1726--> 1805--> 1962--> 2096--> 2215--> 2322--> 2443--> 2512 (+45%)
Look at this:
You want proof cases aren't as severe? This is why no one really talks about GA much as opposed to FL or TX. These patients are far less sick than 2 months ago. Look at the Hosp/ICU ratio... it's nearly doubled over those two months.
Arizona. 86 deaths today. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3182--> 3212--> 3356--> 3421--> 3437--> 3432--> 3485--> 3432 (+8%)
ICU.... 796---> 821----> 839---> 869----> 861---> 876---> 899----> 922 (+16%)
Vent... 531---> 533----> 544---> 570----> 575---> 615---> 620----> 631 (+19%)
Definitely peaking/plateauing here. Discharges today were in the 400's but yesterday well over 500. That continues to look good. ER visits high but down 4 days straight.
MS. 19 deaths, 8 of which were legacy. 48.2% of deaths in NH's.
868 cases and reported ZERO negatives today. Ridiculous. 106 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp: 647--> 585--> 609--> 648--> 645--> 686--> 711--> 703 (+8.6%)
ICU... 175--> 160--> 165--> 173--> 190--> 186--> 205--> 202 (+9%)
Vent... 88----> 84---> 98---> 95---> 101--> 104--> 103--> 107 (+21%)
Slowed down for now. No hospital number updates today for some reason... again. Not much to say today as it was slow with minimal news. I just wish I had comparable numbers for 2018. I remember that season... brutal. I rounded on cardiac patients in the ER for weeks and I avoid the ER like the plague normally. Routinely patients would be discharged from the ER because they were never able to get one. From the MHA in 2018:
https://mhanewsnow.typepad.com/pres...u-season-affecting-mississippi-hospitals.html
"Hospitals in Mississippi and nationwide are experiencing higher-than-usual activity due to a particularly harsh flu season. This has led to overcrowding in emergency rooms and a shortage of hospital beds. "
https://www.clarionledger.com/story...s-visitor-restrictions-flu-outbre/1021545001/
"Jones said for ICUs to fill up is not terribly unusual for this time of year since many diseases have a seasonal variance that renders them more severe in the winter." Say what?
Sound familiar? Perspective. I am seeing nothing even remotely resembling that right now. Yeah, it's busy but not like that... at least here. Guess what else? They also had visitor restrictions to prevent spread in 2108... uh, wut? Yep. THIS IS NOT NEW.
Alabama. 7 deaths.
Hosp: 919--> 1016--> 1073--> 1110--> 1125--> 1183--> 1201--> 1068 (+16%).
Again, don't get excited about the Alabama hospitalizations. They always have a weekend drop d/t a decrease in the number of hospitals reporting. Decent numbers here today.
Louisiana. 23 deaths. 43.5% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 852--> 926--> 964--> 1025--> 1022--> 1117--> 1182--> 1243 (+45%)
Vents.. 93---> 105---> 109---> 109--> 105---> 122---> 121----> 134 (+44%)
The upward trends continue here. Small numbers in the hard hit areas. Those same areas are taking it on the nose right now... Lafeyette, river parishes up north.
California. 72 deaths. 47.8% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7092--> 7149--> 7278--> 7499--> 7705--> 7896--> 7904--> 7854 (+11%)
ICU.. 1888--> 1908--> 1937--> 1984--> 1976--> 2005--> 2021--> 2020 (+7%)
Ummm... so about those masks again. CA has had the strictest mask orders in the country for the longest period of time. In fact, most major cities in the state have had them for well over 2 months... explain this please:
I'll hang up and listen.
Arkansas. 8 deaths.
Hosp: 325--> 337--> 369--> 358--> 394--> 402--> 402--> 412 (+26%)
Vent.... 75---> 81----> 81---> 89----> 82---> 84---> 84----> 84 (+12)
Still good here. Low numbers for the population.
Tennessee. 3 Deaths.
Hosp: 660-->609--> 629--> 652--> 758--> 782--> 800--> 842--> ??? (+?)
No hospitalization update over the weekend.
South Carolina. 24 deaths. 44.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1251--> 1260--> 1324--> 1404--> 1433--> 1438--> 1396--> 1472 (+18%)
22-31% of bed capacity still available. Epidemic curve still shaping into a peak around 6/17-6/24. We will see what the next update does to it on Tuesday.
North Carolina. 4 deaths. 54.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 949--> 982--> 989--> 994--> 1034--> 1046--> 1093--> 1070 (+13%)
Still good numbers for a state this size. Steady slow growth is not a problem.
New Jersey. 46 deaths yesterday, 16 today, ZERO of which were this month. They have had one death in July. 50% of deaths in NH's. State's reporting is a joke. They are legacy death laundering... plain and simple.
Illinois. 16 Deaths. 55.1% of deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1346--> 1326--> 1395--> 1385--> 1385--> 1507--> 1436--> 1342 (-1%)
Comments:
1. Lockdown logic in one image:
2. My intention tonight was to walk through Hydroxychloroquine data. I read every single study in existence in regards to treatment of SARS-Cov2. Some I had read before, others I had missed but were small. When I say I read them... I analyzed them. Every one. Some are good and some are ok but none are bad with the exception of the fake data and toxic dose studies. However, I am on a "children can go to school in the fall" crusade and that is my focus tonight. HCQ tomorrow.
3. 36% of kids have yet to log in to online class in NYC.
https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/...ol-36-percent-of-students-have-yet-to-log-on/
I also saw an article in the LA times that reported 40% of kids did not login to online classes once they went virtual d/t lockdown in the spring.
4. Influenza is worse than CV19 for most school aged kids:
When you graph the deaths of kids, you can't even see them:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cm5trC12bZb8WAiFhGRgwDDzbEV9zjSS/view?usp=sharing
When you zoom in this is what you get:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qXLZybfzcybkM0dEe_N4dagqQr4E2t8q/view?usp=sharing
Sooooo... what are we doing? Why is this even a question? Protect the teachers? Ok, let us go there.
5. Let's start in Sweden. They did not close schools. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf
New study from Folkhälsomyndigheten, the Public Health Agency of Sweden: "closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland or Sweden... [and] showed no increased risk for teachers "
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OD5tU8ouwrcUlQVgRP6_ac-2iOYjSx2r/view?usp=sharing
6. Nearly 200,000 kids under 18 have been confirmed cases of CV19. Only about 4,000 have been hospitalized (2%)...an estimated 25-30,000 for the flu this year. That's just of confirmed cases not all those infected. Source, CDC and emerging infections program.
7. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true
This article is THE BEST study of child transmission of SARS-Cov2. Hands down. Why? They did genetic viral analysis to determine the exact transmission pattern. Normally, you would go ask the family, "who got symptoms first" and that would typically be the index case or the one who gave it to everyone else. However, that's not perfect but genetic analysis with contact tracing is.
The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns. This analysis, along with contact tracing, allowed the authors to identify definitively who passed the virus to whom. Amazing. Senior author's conclusion was this:
"Even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents."
8. Ireland data is exactly the same:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273/
Despite identifying a total of 722 contacts for the infected children, the study found not a single instance of an infected child passing on the virus.
9. https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
I've given you the Netherlands link many times. You should know it by heart. Not a single child under 18 transmitted the virus.
10. A summary here: https://dontforgetthebubbles.com/the-missing-link-children-and-transmission-of-sars-cov-2/
11. @pantherplayer4 posted a nice summary earlier as well and I'll link it again here:
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879
12. European countries are well on their way:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ls-resume-Spain-Netherlands-South-Africa.html
13. Lack of child care is keeping women out of the workforce:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/child-care-women-unemployment-339012
14. Topics to cover this week: HCQ, Vit D and more masks... its gonna be great.
15. Don't let anyone fool you like this... this is from the covid tracking project... it's a disgrace:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HFbtpgs4ZIMbFKx0bONnnXfP36jd72M4/view?usp=sharing
That's called y-axis manipulation. It's a statistical abomination. Not only that, it should be plotted by per 10k or 100k or 1mil population. That is intentional.. a magician's trick to fool you into thinking this southern wave is like the first.
16. A sports related take for the sports board:
https://outkick.com/all-that-and-a-bag-of-mail-125/
Cheers RGers
~729k tests yesterday.
~39 million total tests performed to date.
~61k positives with percentage positive at ~8.3%.
Still a ton of tests. However, testing is still underreported. This is obvious for several reasons. First, many places are not reporting negative tests. Second, due to decreasing prevalence in many areas, false positives are becoming a real issue. I suspect we are underreporting negative tests by about 20-25%. Some Florida data says up to 30% of positives are same persons. More on that under the state below. Finally, I've read stories of testing shortages. While these are infrequent they have occurred. There is no way with 700-800k tests we can be stretching supply when we have the capacity for well over 1 million tests daily in the country. And its been a while since I checked, it's probably higher now.
63.4% of newly reported cases today came from 6 states. California, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Texas and South Carolina. Mississippi reported no negative tests today and neither did 7 other states. The percent positive nationally is NOT 8.3%, it is much closer to 5-6%. Also, those 6 states had a % positive of 11.8% which is down from the weekly average. The remainder of the states %+ was 5.5%.
The border is a problem. One single zip code, not a city, a single ZIP CODE, at the border in Yuma, AZ has more Covid cases than Alaska and Vermont have combined.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 38738--> 39749--> 41700--> 43004---> 43895--> 51544--> 51798--> 52578 (16.2%)
ICU... 5652---> 5680----> 5826----> 5867-----> 5839----> 5889---> 5928---> 5919 (4.7%)
Vent.. 2080---> 2105----> 2098----> 2172-----> 2127----> 2197---> 2169---> 2182 (4.9%)
61% of current national hospitalizations are in 5 states. Arizona, California, Georgia, Florida and Texas. 5 states--> 31,750, 44 states--> 20,651
ICU numbers dropped slightly and vent slightly increased. Both of those are negligible and within the margin of error day to day.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 127,677 per CTP. 52.1% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 476 deaths today. More backlog from NJ... everyday there is backlog from here. On a side note, NY did not have a single death today for the first time since it started.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476-->
Some interesting things you can find on the CDC's website. Friday they updated mortality as they usually do. Over 4k CV19 deaths added. The second most interesting thing in all of that... 65% of those deaths occurred OVER 1 month ago. The most interesting thing? The US as a whole is 5% above expected mortality for the year so far... 64k deaths. I told you this was going to happen. If not for NY/MA/NJ/IL/PA... we would be far under expected for the year. Perspective is important:
State Data
Texas. Deaths 80. 38.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 8181--> 8698--> 9286--> 9610--> 9689---> 10002--> 10083--> 10410 (+27%)
ICU: 2449--> 2517--> 2658--> 2730--> 2878----> 2923----> 2913----> 2995 (+22%)
I do like what the state looks like as a whole, slow deceleration across the board. ICU admit 7 day average is falling, ER visits have definitely hit the plateau for now and general bed admits have fallen as well recently.
However, you will think this is odd coming from me, I think Texas may need a field hospital set up in Hidalgo county due to cross border patients just in case. I'll explain below.
Houston area:
Pretty settled here now. I expect we'll see things improve here soon as it's been pretty flat from a hospital census perspective and ICU beds. ER visits are down which is our leading indicator of improvement. By the way, the overall hospital census here has been unchanged for 6 weeks.
Dallas area: 9 days straight of over 1000 cases but staying in that range. Everything has plateaued here. Cases, ER visits, ICU admits, census. 15% of beds, ICU beds and 58% of vents are available.
San Antonio... Everything is flat. 7-day moving average of ER visits did go slightly up the last two days. However, ICU admits are slightly down today. Not out of the woods here yet but better than last week.
Austin area... Census down slightly. ICU and vents remain stable. This despite the rise in cases that began ~6/20.
Hosp: 461--> 469--> 485--> 550--> 534--> 440--> 438--> 434.
Hidalgo... My concern here is the increasing ER visits as a percent of the total. For several days the percent of ER visits related to CV19 is over 50%. That is an incredible number. Never seen anything like that, even in AZ. My other concern being that this is not Houston or Dallas where hospital bed availability is like going to pick out a car. They aren't everywhere. The border counties will struggle with cross border cases if the volume gets too high. El Paso has seen an uptick as well which is not surprising but nothing like Hidalgo. Border counties are now responsible for 31% of the states deaths.
Florida. 45 deaths,. 50.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542
19% of ICU beds are available in the state. Florida reported the record number of cases today. It was awful... all over the news. Highest for any state ever. You know what not one person mentioned? How many tests they reported total and one other thing that is more important was missed...
Look at all the green. First, over 120k tests! Good grief that's a lot... and it's most definitely an under. More on that in a second. Lowest percent positive in two weeks as well. Perspective. Now, look at the ER visits and symptom curves... flattening. That is the most important finding on this entire page. So why is it an under? Glad you asked...
Those are labs and their respective percent positives.... 333 labs at 100%. Who in their right mind believes that nonsense? They are NOT reporting negatives. Peeps, this is just the 100% labs, the list goes on with pages more of labs with 99%, 98%, 97%... its a load of hot garbage. Florida probably did over 200k tests yesterday... minimum. The percent positive metric's usefulness is a dumpster fire inside of Dante's Inferno...
One more thing... the numbers are likely inflated.
https://justthenews.com/politics-po...ord-breaking-coronavirus-days-may-have-been-0
“Florida health officials appear to have inflated recent record coronavirus case numbers there by as much as 30%, according to an analysis of data released by the state's Department of Health.”
Disney World opened. I mean if Disney is now open in Florida... surely we can open schools right? Right?
I'm not done with Florida... Miami-Dade has had a mandatory mask order in place since April 9th.
Please explains how this is possible. And before you say compliance is the problem... nope:
In mid June county code enforcers checked 10,000 businesses and found a 99.6% compliance w/ CDC/County guidelines. How can this be happening you ask? BECAUSE IT SPREADS IN THE HOME! AND ITS AN AEROSOL!
Georgia. 5 deaths. 45.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1726--> 1805--> 1962--> 2096--> 2215--> 2322--> 2443--> 2512 (+45%)
Look at this:
You want proof cases aren't as severe? This is why no one really talks about GA much as opposed to FL or TX. These patients are far less sick than 2 months ago. Look at the Hosp/ICU ratio... it's nearly doubled over those two months.
Arizona. 86 deaths today. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3182--> 3212--> 3356--> 3421--> 3437--> 3432--> 3485--> 3432 (+8%)
ICU.... 796---> 821----> 839---> 869----> 861---> 876---> 899----> 922 (+16%)
Vent... 531---> 533----> 544---> 570----> 575---> 615---> 620----> 631 (+19%)
Definitely peaking/plateauing here. Discharges today were in the 400's but yesterday well over 500. That continues to look good. ER visits high but down 4 days straight.
MS. 19 deaths, 8 of which were legacy. 48.2% of deaths in NH's.
868 cases and reported ZERO negatives today. Ridiculous. 106 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp: 647--> 585--> 609--> 648--> 645--> 686--> 711--> 703 (+8.6%)
ICU... 175--> 160--> 165--> 173--> 190--> 186--> 205--> 202 (+9%)
Vent... 88----> 84---> 98---> 95---> 101--> 104--> 103--> 107 (+21%)
Slowed down for now. No hospital number updates today for some reason... again. Not much to say today as it was slow with minimal news. I just wish I had comparable numbers for 2018. I remember that season... brutal. I rounded on cardiac patients in the ER for weeks and I avoid the ER like the plague normally. Routinely patients would be discharged from the ER because they were never able to get one. From the MHA in 2018:
https://mhanewsnow.typepad.com/pres...u-season-affecting-mississippi-hospitals.html
"Hospitals in Mississippi and nationwide are experiencing higher-than-usual activity due to a particularly harsh flu season. This has led to overcrowding in emergency rooms and a shortage of hospital beds. "
https://www.clarionledger.com/story...s-visitor-restrictions-flu-outbre/1021545001/
"Jones said for ICUs to fill up is not terribly unusual for this time of year since many diseases have a seasonal variance that renders them more severe in the winter." Say what?
Sound familiar? Perspective. I am seeing nothing even remotely resembling that right now. Yeah, it's busy but not like that... at least here. Guess what else? They also had visitor restrictions to prevent spread in 2108... uh, wut? Yep. THIS IS NOT NEW.
Alabama. 7 deaths.
Hosp: 919--> 1016--> 1073--> 1110--> 1125--> 1183--> 1201--> 1068 (+16%).
Again, don't get excited about the Alabama hospitalizations. They always have a weekend drop d/t a decrease in the number of hospitals reporting. Decent numbers here today.
Louisiana. 23 deaths. 43.5% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 852--> 926--> 964--> 1025--> 1022--> 1117--> 1182--> 1243 (+45%)
Vents.. 93---> 105---> 109---> 109--> 105---> 122---> 121----> 134 (+44%)
The upward trends continue here. Small numbers in the hard hit areas. Those same areas are taking it on the nose right now... Lafeyette, river parishes up north.
California. 72 deaths. 47.8% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7092--> 7149--> 7278--> 7499--> 7705--> 7896--> 7904--> 7854 (+11%)
ICU.. 1888--> 1908--> 1937--> 1984--> 1976--> 2005--> 2021--> 2020 (+7%)
Ummm... so about those masks again. CA has had the strictest mask orders in the country for the longest period of time. In fact, most major cities in the state have had them for well over 2 months... explain this please:
I'll hang up and listen.
Arkansas. 8 deaths.
Hosp: 325--> 337--> 369--> 358--> 394--> 402--> 402--> 412 (+26%)
Vent.... 75---> 81----> 81---> 89----> 82---> 84---> 84----> 84 (+12)
Still good here. Low numbers for the population.
Tennessee. 3 Deaths.
Hosp: 660-->609--> 629--> 652--> 758--> 782--> 800--> 842--> ??? (+?)
No hospitalization update over the weekend.
South Carolina. 24 deaths. 44.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1251--> 1260--> 1324--> 1404--> 1433--> 1438--> 1396--> 1472 (+18%)
22-31% of bed capacity still available. Epidemic curve still shaping into a peak around 6/17-6/24. We will see what the next update does to it on Tuesday.
North Carolina. 4 deaths. 54.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 949--> 982--> 989--> 994--> 1034--> 1046--> 1093--> 1070 (+13%)
Still good numbers for a state this size. Steady slow growth is not a problem.
New Jersey. 46 deaths yesterday, 16 today, ZERO of which were this month. They have had one death in July. 50% of deaths in NH's. State's reporting is a joke. They are legacy death laundering... plain and simple.
Illinois. 16 Deaths. 55.1% of deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1346--> 1326--> 1395--> 1385--> 1385--> 1507--> 1436--> 1342 (-1%)
Comments:
1. Lockdown logic in one image:
2. My intention tonight was to walk through Hydroxychloroquine data. I read every single study in existence in regards to treatment of SARS-Cov2. Some I had read before, others I had missed but were small. When I say I read them... I analyzed them. Every one. Some are good and some are ok but none are bad with the exception of the fake data and toxic dose studies. However, I am on a "children can go to school in the fall" crusade and that is my focus tonight. HCQ tomorrow.
3. 36% of kids have yet to log in to online class in NYC.
https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/...ol-36-percent-of-students-have-yet-to-log-on/
I also saw an article in the LA times that reported 40% of kids did not login to online classes once they went virtual d/t lockdown in the spring.
4. Influenza is worse than CV19 for most school aged kids:
When you graph the deaths of kids, you can't even see them:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cm5trC12bZb8WAiFhGRgwDDzbEV9zjSS/view?usp=sharing
When you zoom in this is what you get:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qXLZybfzcybkM0dEe_N4dagqQr4E2t8q/view?usp=sharing
Sooooo... what are we doing? Why is this even a question? Protect the teachers? Ok, let us go there.
5. Let's start in Sweden. They did not close schools. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf
New study from Folkhälsomyndigheten, the Public Health Agency of Sweden: "closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland or Sweden... [and] showed no increased risk for teachers "
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OD5tU8ouwrcUlQVgRP6_ac-2iOYjSx2r/view?usp=sharing
6. Nearly 200,000 kids under 18 have been confirmed cases of CV19. Only about 4,000 have been hospitalized (2%)...an estimated 25-30,000 for the flu this year. That's just of confirmed cases not all those infected. Source, CDC and emerging infections program.
7. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true
This article is THE BEST study of child transmission of SARS-Cov2. Hands down. Why? They did genetic viral analysis to determine the exact transmission pattern. Normally, you would go ask the family, "who got symptoms first" and that would typically be the index case or the one who gave it to everyone else. However, that's not perfect but genetic analysis with contact tracing is.
The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns. This analysis, along with contact tracing, allowed the authors to identify definitively who passed the virus to whom. Amazing. Senior author's conclusion was this:
"Even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents."
8. Ireland data is exactly the same:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273/
Despite identifying a total of 722 contacts for the infected children, the study found not a single instance of an infected child passing on the virus.
9. https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
I've given you the Netherlands link many times. You should know it by heart. Not a single child under 18 transmitted the virus.
10. A summary here: https://dontforgetthebubbles.com/the-missing-link-children-and-transmission-of-sars-cov-2/
11. @pantherplayer4 posted a nice summary earlier as well and I'll link it again here:
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879
12. European countries are well on their way:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ls-resume-Spain-Netherlands-South-Africa.html
13. Lack of child care is keeping women out of the workforce:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/child-care-women-unemployment-339012
14. Topics to cover this week: HCQ, Vit D and more masks... its gonna be great.
15. Don't let anyone fool you like this... this is from the covid tracking project... it's a disgrace:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HFbtpgs4ZIMbFKx0bONnnXfP36jd72M4/view?usp=sharing
That's called y-axis manipulation. It's a statistical abomination. Not only that, it should be plotted by per 10k or 100k or 1mil population. That is intentional.. a magician's trick to fool you into thinking this southern wave is like the first.
16. A sports related take for the sports board:
https://outkick.com/all-that-and-a-bag-of-mail-125/
Cheers RGers
