Testing Data
~721k tests yesterday.
~41 million total tests performed to date.
~58k positives with percentage positive at ~8.0%.
6 states were 61.2% of reported cases today: Alabama, California, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Texas. ND, WY, AR, OK reported no negatives and AZ had a low testing number today.
6 states: 11.1% positive
45 states: 5.5% positive
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 39749--> 41700--> 43004---> 43895--> 51544--> 51798--> 52578--> 53916 (15%)
ICU... 5680----> 5826----> 5867----> 5839----> 5889---> 5928---> 5919----> 6061 (6.7%)
Vent.. 2105----> 2098----> 2172-----> 2127----> 2197---> 2169---> 2182----> 2259 (7.3%)
60.1% of current national hospitalizations are in 5 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas. Arizona and Texas actually posted declines and California had a small increase of 0.5%.
California and Arizona’s percentage of ICU’s nationally slightly declined, to 48.9%. ICU’s went up a just a tad... happens most Monday's and I don't know why.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 128,004 per CTP. 52% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 327 deaths today.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476--> 327
A very low day but higher than last week. We get pretty accurate data on the weekends since state's tend not to report backlog on these days. The caveat is some states don't report at all on weekends so it's not perfect. Florida, Texas and CA will keep us here I believe for a bit and I believe CA will be the largest contributor as it looks currently but Florida may catch up some given their older population.
State Data
Texas. Deaths 43. 40.6% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 8698--> 9286--> 9610--> 9689---> 10002--> 10083--> 10410--> 10405 (+19%)
ICU: 2517--> 2658--> 2730--> 2878----> 2923----> 2913----> 2995--> 3053 (+21%)
A slow down in Texas today. This does correlate well with what we've been seeing for about week with ER visits falling and new admits stabilizing. Testing was down today but it's always down on Monday. There was an excellent finding today in Texas. Say wut? Yes... this is what you get here, real news:
Lowest level of CV19 like illness reported since mid-June. That is great news and should be a harbinger of things to come. You see that peak in the ILI/CLI? Peak infection is WELL BEFORE THAT which means what? All measures taken by Gov. Abbott happened AFTER peak infection and will have nearly zero effect on viral spread. This is basic epidemiology... so elemental. But all those closures and masks will get the credit! Look, we saved you from yourself!
Houston area:
Definitely in a plateau. The best thing I saw today for Houston was the "suspected" cases in the hospital. Steady decline over the last week. As they are discharged, they fall off the rolls and leave an open bed. The 7-day slope here is flat for ICU and overall beds. The general beds 7 day slope is actually slightly down for the first time:
Houston should be looking good soon and I don't see anywhere else that can generate those kinds of problems for the state from a volume perspective.
Dallas area: 10 days straight of over 1000 cases but staying in that range. Everything remains plateaued here. Cases, ER visits (actually slightly down), ICU admits, census. 16% of beds, 17% ICU beds and 58% of vents are available.
San Antonio... ICU admits down two days in a row. Most metrics flat. ER visits fell a bit today. I did find out SA counts antibodies as a positive test but I don't know what percent of the total they are.
Austin area... Census up a little today.
Hosp: 461--> 469--> 485--> 550--> 534--> 440--> 438--> 434--> 459.
By the way, I didn't realize those bed numbers are for Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, & Williamson Counties. LOL... There are 2.2 million people in this service area. 0.02% of the population is hospitalized for CV19! You can't make this stuff up... absolute lunacy.
Hidalgo... Not much different than yesterday. ER visits down but % for CV19 up. Case counts better but weekends and all. Lets see how tomorrow looks. ICU capacity down to 7%. Get a field hospital here please Gov. Abbott. Oh, and can someone show this to the governor? I mean, its his state's data after all... does he not know it? Unreal... get some perspective.
Florida. 35 deaths. 49.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542--> 8051
Something doesn't add up here. Remember the deep dive on Arizona that didn't add up? Florida has a similar issue. Since they started reporting hospitalizations the total is up 901... that's new admits during that time. But look at the current hospitalizations... they are up 1077 and that's a net with discharges. There have to be far more new admits than 901 to get you almost 1100 hospitalizations. A couple of possibilities... suspected cases don't count until they are positive and/or nosocomial infections. But the discharges have to be pretty high by now... 200 range I'd think based upon other states. Still a big difference when you add those in. I'm not sure how to reconcile that.
But overall the state looks good with these stats today:
Today's occupancy:
All Beds: 77.1%
ICU Beds: 79.5%
CV19 beds: 13.4%
Stop the panic!
Georgia. 25 deaths, 4 were not from GA. 45.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1805--> 1962--> 2096--> 2215--> 2322--> 2443--> 2512--> 2600 (+44%)
Deaths remain low despite the hospitalizations. A ton of non-resident positives in this state in the last week or so.
Arizona. 8 deaths today. 49.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3212--> 3356--> 3421--> 3437--> 3432--> 3485--> 3432--> 3373 (+5%)
ICU.... 821----> 839---> 869----> 861---> 876---> 899----> 922---> 936 (+14%)
Vent... 533----> 544---> 570----> 575---> 615---> 620----> 631---> 671 (+26%)
Interesting that the ICU and vents are going against the grain here. Discharges remain over 400. Hospitalizations have plateaued and have even slightly decreased now for two days while ICU/vent numbers increased. I'm not sure what to make of that. It goes against every other metric including ER visits which were down again today. The other problem is the vent/ICU percent. It's 72%. MS is ~50%. That's a sick patient population in AZ if you can beat MS. Again, I can't reconcile that yet. Could be a reporting issue? We will know this week how AZ plays out.
You can see the nice trend in hospitalizations here:
MS. 1 death. 48.2% of deaths in NH's.
393 cases. 106 LTC outbreaks. Weekend numbers most assuredly. Up again tomorrow.
Hosp: 609--> 648--> 645--> 686--> 711--> 703--> 704--> 758 (+24%)
ICU... 165--> 173--> 190--> 186--> 205--> 202--> 197--> 208 (+26%)
Vent... 98---> 95---> 101--> 104--> 103--> 107--> 108--> 110 (+12%)
We are running at about 25% of ICU beds w/ CV19 with 800 ICU beds in the state. We will not run out of ventilators so that's not an issue. Staffing the beds and vents are the issues. Always has been. Locally, we are busier but I don't have exact numbers. My friend on the vent has improved, thankfully. Hopefully weaned off the vent soon. Dobbs did say today that every positive case is a person and not a test. That was a needed clarification.
Alabama. 3 deaths.
Hosp: 1016--> 1073--> 1110--> 1125--> 1183--> 1201--> 1068--> 1335 (+31%).
Like we know, drops on the weekend mean nothing in AL. Low deaths over the weekend. Likely to pick back up tomorrow. Madison, Jefferson and Mobile counties with the most cases today.
Louisiana. 7 deaths. 43.5% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 926--> 964--> 1025--> 1022--> 1117--> 1182--> 1243--> 1308 (+41%)
Vents..105---> 109---> 109---> 105----> 122---> 121----> 134--> 142 (+35%)
The upward trends continue here but the rate of rise is slowing. Some perspective vs the earlier NOLA version of the pandemic:
California. 23 deaths. 47.8% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7149--> 7278--> 7499--> 7705--> 7896--> 7904--> 7854--> 7895 (+11%)
ICU.. 1908--> 1937--> 1984--> 1976--> 2005--> 2021--> 2020--> 2021 (+7%)
I'll say it again, if the masks work so well why did the state shut down again today? This is the state with the earliest and most draconian masks orders in the country... how can this be happening? It's not possible. Redfield said we could quash it if we did it for 4-6 weeks. It's been longer here! Quash a contagious respiratory virus... what a joke... I just laugh... these people have no understanding of basic virology, immunology, aerosols, droplets, or fomites and they are running the show. It is absolutely comical. Bizzarro world of the highest order.
On another note, good for OC, following the data and scientific evidence:
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/07/13/oc-school-board-classes-fall/
CA also shows how less lethal the virus is compared to April:
Look at the percentage of patients requiring ICU care. It is much lower.
Arkansas. 2 deaths.
Hosp: 337--> 369--> 358--> 394--> 402--> 402--> 412--> 439 (+30%)
Vent.... 81----> 81---> 89----> 82---> 84---> 84----> 84--> 89 (+10)
Tennessee. 8 Deaths. 3300 cases today.
Hosp: 652--> 758--> 782--> 800--> 842--> 822--> 808--> 802 (+23)
It's still Shelby, Davidson and everywhere else. Knox county is stable. But this state is fine right now and looks better today than last week by trends.
South Carolina. 21 deaths. 44.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1260--> 1324--> 1404--> 1433--> 1438--> 1396--> 1472--> 1488 (+18%)
21-30% of bed capacity still available. Epidemic curve still shaping into a peak around 6/17-6/24. We will see what the next update does to it tomorrow.
North Carolina. 7 deaths. 54.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 982--> 989--> 994--> 1034--> 1046--> 1093--> 1070--> 1040 (+6%)
Still good numbers for a state this size.
New Jersey. 19 deaths. Almost all of which were in June. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Illinois. 6 Deaths. 54.6% of deaths are in NH's in this weeks update.
Hosp: 1326--> 1395--> 1385--> 1385--> 1507--> 1436--> 1342--> 1362 (+2.7%)
Comments:
1. CDC, WHO, OHSA, NEJM, Fauci, etc. are all such lousy experts they either didn't think masks would stop this in March or they did and still lied about it anyhow. Which is it? There has been NO new evidence to support masks since March. ZERO. They have been studied for a century and found ineffective. Yes, a century. I will blister the pro-mask argument later this week... if you believe it when I'm done, well... I've got ocean front property in Yuma for sale.
2. Just to show you how silly of a metric case fatality rate is... per the CDC in 2019-2020 there were 9169 deaths out of the 40,135 lab-confirmed cases of the flu. That puts the flu "death rate" at 22%. Ridiculous... don't listen to anyone speaking in terms of CFR. They are not informed.
3. Belarus also had no lockdown and didn't even stop large gatherings:
Hey Gavin... take a look above. lOcKdOwNs DoN't wOrK...
4. I cannot get to HCQ tonight. I have to be up very early. But here's the teaser and I'll prove it works tomorrow if given early beyond any doubt:
When you look at that, just remember how many people are in India. Incredible. Everyone gets it early... everyone.
Cheers RGers
~721k tests yesterday.
~41 million total tests performed to date.
~58k positives with percentage positive at ~8.0%.
6 states were 61.2% of reported cases today: Alabama, California, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Texas. ND, WY, AR, OK reported no negatives and AZ had a low testing number today.
6 states: 11.1% positive
45 states: 5.5% positive
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 39749--> 41700--> 43004---> 43895--> 51544--> 51798--> 52578--> 53916 (15%)
ICU... 5680----> 5826----> 5867----> 5839----> 5889---> 5928---> 5919----> 6061 (6.7%)
Vent.. 2105----> 2098----> 2172-----> 2127----> 2197---> 2169---> 2182----> 2259 (7.3%)
60.1% of current national hospitalizations are in 5 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas. Arizona and Texas actually posted declines and California had a small increase of 0.5%.
California and Arizona’s percentage of ICU’s nationally slightly declined, to 48.9%. ICU’s went up a just a tad... happens most Monday's and I don't know why.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 128,004 per CTP. 52% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 327 deaths today.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476--> 327
A very low day but higher than last week. We get pretty accurate data on the weekends since state's tend not to report backlog on these days. The caveat is some states don't report at all on weekends so it's not perfect. Florida, Texas and CA will keep us here I believe for a bit and I believe CA will be the largest contributor as it looks currently but Florida may catch up some given their older population.
State Data
Texas. Deaths 43. 40.6% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 8698--> 9286--> 9610--> 9689---> 10002--> 10083--> 10410--> 10405 (+19%)
ICU: 2517--> 2658--> 2730--> 2878----> 2923----> 2913----> 2995--> 3053 (+21%)
A slow down in Texas today. This does correlate well with what we've been seeing for about week with ER visits falling and new admits stabilizing. Testing was down today but it's always down on Monday. There was an excellent finding today in Texas. Say wut? Yes... this is what you get here, real news:
Lowest level of CV19 like illness reported since mid-June. That is great news and should be a harbinger of things to come. You see that peak in the ILI/CLI? Peak infection is WELL BEFORE THAT which means what? All measures taken by Gov. Abbott happened AFTER peak infection and will have nearly zero effect on viral spread. This is basic epidemiology... so elemental. But all those closures and masks will get the credit! Look, we saved you from yourself!
Houston area:
Definitely in a plateau. The best thing I saw today for Houston was the "suspected" cases in the hospital. Steady decline over the last week. As they are discharged, they fall off the rolls and leave an open bed. The 7-day slope here is flat for ICU and overall beds. The general beds 7 day slope is actually slightly down for the first time:
Houston should be looking good soon and I don't see anywhere else that can generate those kinds of problems for the state from a volume perspective.
Dallas area: 10 days straight of over 1000 cases but staying in that range. Everything remains plateaued here. Cases, ER visits (actually slightly down), ICU admits, census. 16% of beds, 17% ICU beds and 58% of vents are available.
San Antonio... ICU admits down two days in a row. Most metrics flat. ER visits fell a bit today. I did find out SA counts antibodies as a positive test but I don't know what percent of the total they are.
Austin area... Census up a little today.
Hosp: 461--> 469--> 485--> 550--> 534--> 440--> 438--> 434--> 459.
By the way, I didn't realize those bed numbers are for Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, & Williamson Counties. LOL... There are 2.2 million people in this service area. 0.02% of the population is hospitalized for CV19! You can't make this stuff up... absolute lunacy.
Hidalgo... Not much different than yesterday. ER visits down but % for CV19 up. Case counts better but weekends and all. Lets see how tomorrow looks. ICU capacity down to 7%. Get a field hospital here please Gov. Abbott. Oh, and can someone show this to the governor? I mean, its his state's data after all... does he not know it? Unreal... get some perspective.
Florida. 35 deaths. 49.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542--> 8051
Something doesn't add up here. Remember the deep dive on Arizona that didn't add up? Florida has a similar issue. Since they started reporting hospitalizations the total is up 901... that's new admits during that time. But look at the current hospitalizations... they are up 1077 and that's a net with discharges. There have to be far more new admits than 901 to get you almost 1100 hospitalizations. A couple of possibilities... suspected cases don't count until they are positive and/or nosocomial infections. But the discharges have to be pretty high by now... 200 range I'd think based upon other states. Still a big difference when you add those in. I'm not sure how to reconcile that.
But overall the state looks good with these stats today:
Today's occupancy:
All Beds: 77.1%
ICU Beds: 79.5%
CV19 beds: 13.4%
Stop the panic!
Georgia. 25 deaths, 4 were not from GA. 45.1% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1805--> 1962--> 2096--> 2215--> 2322--> 2443--> 2512--> 2600 (+44%)
Deaths remain low despite the hospitalizations. A ton of non-resident positives in this state in the last week or so.
Arizona. 8 deaths today. 49.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3212--> 3356--> 3421--> 3437--> 3432--> 3485--> 3432--> 3373 (+5%)
ICU.... 821----> 839---> 869----> 861---> 876---> 899----> 922---> 936 (+14%)
Vent... 533----> 544---> 570----> 575---> 615---> 620----> 631---> 671 (+26%)
Interesting that the ICU and vents are going against the grain here. Discharges remain over 400. Hospitalizations have plateaued and have even slightly decreased now for two days while ICU/vent numbers increased. I'm not sure what to make of that. It goes against every other metric including ER visits which were down again today. The other problem is the vent/ICU percent. It's 72%. MS is ~50%. That's a sick patient population in AZ if you can beat MS. Again, I can't reconcile that yet. Could be a reporting issue? We will know this week how AZ plays out.
You can see the nice trend in hospitalizations here:
MS. 1 death. 48.2% of deaths in NH's.
393 cases. 106 LTC outbreaks. Weekend numbers most assuredly. Up again tomorrow.
Hosp: 609--> 648--> 645--> 686--> 711--> 703--> 704--> 758 (+24%)
ICU... 165--> 173--> 190--> 186--> 205--> 202--> 197--> 208 (+26%)
Vent... 98---> 95---> 101--> 104--> 103--> 107--> 108--> 110 (+12%)
We are running at about 25% of ICU beds w/ CV19 with 800 ICU beds in the state. We will not run out of ventilators so that's not an issue. Staffing the beds and vents are the issues. Always has been. Locally, we are busier but I don't have exact numbers. My friend on the vent has improved, thankfully. Hopefully weaned off the vent soon. Dobbs did say today that every positive case is a person and not a test. That was a needed clarification.
Alabama. 3 deaths.
Hosp: 1016--> 1073--> 1110--> 1125--> 1183--> 1201--> 1068--> 1335 (+31%).
Like we know, drops on the weekend mean nothing in AL. Low deaths over the weekend. Likely to pick back up tomorrow. Madison, Jefferson and Mobile counties with the most cases today.
Louisiana. 7 deaths. 43.5% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 926--> 964--> 1025--> 1022--> 1117--> 1182--> 1243--> 1308 (+41%)
Vents..105---> 109---> 109---> 105----> 122---> 121----> 134--> 142 (+35%)
The upward trends continue here but the rate of rise is slowing. Some perspective vs the earlier NOLA version of the pandemic:
California. 23 deaths. 47.8% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7149--> 7278--> 7499--> 7705--> 7896--> 7904--> 7854--> 7895 (+11%)
ICU.. 1908--> 1937--> 1984--> 1976--> 2005--> 2021--> 2020--> 2021 (+7%)
I'll say it again, if the masks work so well why did the state shut down again today? This is the state with the earliest and most draconian masks orders in the country... how can this be happening? It's not possible. Redfield said we could quash it if we did it for 4-6 weeks. It's been longer here! Quash a contagious respiratory virus... what a joke... I just laugh... these people have no understanding of basic virology, immunology, aerosols, droplets, or fomites and they are running the show. It is absolutely comical. Bizzarro world of the highest order.
On another note, good for OC, following the data and scientific evidence:
https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/07/13/oc-school-board-classes-fall/
CA also shows how less lethal the virus is compared to April:
Look at the percentage of patients requiring ICU care. It is much lower.
Arkansas. 2 deaths.
Hosp: 337--> 369--> 358--> 394--> 402--> 402--> 412--> 439 (+30%)
Vent.... 81----> 81---> 89----> 82---> 84---> 84----> 84--> 89 (+10)
Tennessee. 8 Deaths. 3300 cases today.
Hosp: 652--> 758--> 782--> 800--> 842--> 822--> 808--> 802 (+23)
It's still Shelby, Davidson and everywhere else. Knox county is stable. But this state is fine right now and looks better today than last week by trends.
South Carolina. 21 deaths. 44.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1260--> 1324--> 1404--> 1433--> 1438--> 1396--> 1472--> 1488 (+18%)
21-30% of bed capacity still available. Epidemic curve still shaping into a peak around 6/17-6/24. We will see what the next update does to it tomorrow.
North Carolina. 7 deaths. 54.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 982--> 989--> 994--> 1034--> 1046--> 1093--> 1070--> 1040 (+6%)
Still good numbers for a state this size.
New Jersey. 19 deaths. Almost all of which were in June. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Illinois. 6 Deaths. 54.6% of deaths are in NH's in this weeks update.
Hosp: 1326--> 1395--> 1385--> 1385--> 1507--> 1436--> 1342--> 1362 (+2.7%)
Comments:
1. CDC, WHO, OHSA, NEJM, Fauci, etc. are all such lousy experts they either didn't think masks would stop this in March or they did and still lied about it anyhow. Which is it? There has been NO new evidence to support masks since March. ZERO. They have been studied for a century and found ineffective. Yes, a century. I will blister the pro-mask argument later this week... if you believe it when I'm done, well... I've got ocean front property in Yuma for sale.
2. Just to show you how silly of a metric case fatality rate is... per the CDC in 2019-2020 there were 9169 deaths out of the 40,135 lab-confirmed cases of the flu. That puts the flu "death rate" at 22%. Ridiculous... don't listen to anyone speaking in terms of CFR. They are not informed.
3. Belarus also had no lockdown and didn't even stop large gatherings:
Hey Gavin... take a look above. lOcKdOwNs DoN't wOrK...
4. I cannot get to HCQ tonight. I have to be up very early. But here's the teaser and I'll prove it works tomorrow if given early beyond any doubt:
When you look at that, just remember how many people are in India. Incredible. Everyone gets it early... everyone.
Cheers RGers
