Testing Data
~726k tests yesterday, new record.
~56.8 million total tests performed to date.
~48.6k positives with percentage positive at ~6.7%
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 58614--> 59023--> 57091--> 57306--> 56462--> 55536--> 54448--> 53908 (-9%)
ICU.... 10268--> 10328--> 10563--> 10531--> 10517--> 10473--> 10433--> 10405 (+1.3%)
Vent... 2723----> 2720----> 2752---> 2776---> 2760----> 2702---> 2699---> 2644 (-3%)
Downward trends across the board as expected while the southern wave wanes. ~5k drop in hospitalizations week/week. ICU has fallen as well when you take out the newly reporting states.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 147,134 per CTP. 51.3% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 515 deaths today.
209--> 242--> 922--> 897--> 867--> 854--> 757 = 4748 (+35%)
476--> 327--> 736--> 855--> 977--> 951--> 872 = 5194 (+9%)
523--> 365-> 1029> 1126-> 1039-> 1178> 1037 = 6297 (+18%)
558--> 428-> 1121> 1418-> 1262-> 1308> 1172 = 7267 (+15%)
515
Caveat here, TX did not report today and LA was a double count since they no longer report on Saturday. So keep today and tomorrow's number in context. Lower than it should be today and higher tomorrow.
State Data
Mississippi. 10 deaths. 44.7% of deaths in NH's.
672 cases. 171 LTC outbreaks. Lowered that by 30 in a day? Good news if true.
Hosp: 943--> 949--> 969--> 982--> 972--> 989--> 968--> 950 (+0.7%)
ICU... 311--> 304--> 286--> 296--> 296 --> 297--> 302--> 307 (-1.3%)
Vent... 168--> 166--> 169 --> 178--> 177--> 176--> 172--> ??? (+?%)
No hospitalization numbers today on the main page but they were updated in the PDF they post every day now. However, no vent numbers in that document. We are looking better. Reasoning is that suspected and confirmed admission were low yesterday, lowest since mid June for suspected and mid July for confirmed:
Also, just to be sure this wasn't a Sunday thing, I highlighted each Sunday on the suspected graph with a red arrow. No pattern there. 5 & 7-day moving average for both is heading down. ICU bed usage is stable at around 1/3 of beds occupied by CV19 statewide and around 18% ICU bed capacity available. Not sure where this 98% number being thrown around in articles is coming from... it's just not true:
In the busiest area, Jackson, yes, they have been hovering in the 95-99% range.
We are still pretty busy. I did see my first case of myocarditis from CV19 yesterday. Mild case, went home today. Stable census overall. ICU busier than the general ward now which seems to be consistent with the state as a whole and that makes sense as they are in the hospital longer.
A thought on MS. We have around 60,000 cases now. CDC says there are ~10x more than that. So let's say 600k. That's is 20% of the population of 3,000,000. Herd immunity threshold almost everywhere has been 15-20%. NYC, the hardest hit area was ~23%. At 2100 deaths, 700/mil, it gives MS an iFR of 0.35%. That seems about right given the overall health of the population and number of LTC outbreaks we have seen. Might even get to 0.4%. These numbers are consistent with a hard hit area. I'd not consider MS a hard hit area like NY, but hard hit because of our risk factors. Two different things but both give a much worse than normal result all the same.
Texas. Deaths ???. 38.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 10036--> 9827--> 10075--> 9781--> 9595--> 9296--> 9336--> 8969-->? (-?%)
ICU: 3180---> 3209--> 3281--> 3136---> 3136--> 3087--> 3117--> 3117-->? (-?%)
No update from Texas today. Unclear why unless they are taking Sunday's off now like some other states. That being said, TMC is looking great with rapid declines across the board with a 33% drop in hospitalizations since the peak:
Overall trend in the are is the same:
Florida. 62 deaths. 43% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 8951--> 9098--> 8992--> 8720--> 8395--> 8209--> 8072--> 7952 (-12%)
The steady decline here continues. ILI/CLI syndromic surveillance is back to early June levels. Every county I look at is on the decline in terms of hospitalizations and %+ testing. Interestingly, the date of death curve is still showing a peak around 7/17. A bit of a surprise and a good one. If that holds up and doesn't shift into last week like most expected, it would mean fewer deaths than expected by a decent margin:
Georgia. 15 deaths. 43.5% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3079--> 3181--> 3157--> 3188--> 3200--> 3155--> 3095--> 3069 (-0.4%)
Looks like we are there. One more day would confirm.
Arizona. 18 deaths. 38.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2650--> 2626--> 2564--> 2424--> 2348--> 2302--> 2226--> 2147 (-19%)
ICU.... 837---> 820----> 814---> 800---> 758----> 719---> 710---> 685 (-19%)
Vent... 581---> 567----> 574---> 561---> 531----> 505---> 490---> 474 (-19%)
No one talks about AZ anymore... 15.3% antibody positive. That's what it takes and why no one mentions it anymore. It's looking great. Down 39% from the peak in mid July. That means deaths should be heading down here... save for the occasional death cert matching dump.
Alabama. 24 deaths. ~2000 cases today with a declining 7 day moving average.
Hosp: 1505--> 1599--> 1598--> 1598--> 1595--> 1596--> 1559--> 1529 (+1.6%).
Once again, remember AL doesn't have full hospital reporting on the weekend. I'll be very interested to see this number tomorrow. Mobile with a monster number of cases today at 532. That has to be some kind of backlog testing dump.
Louisiana. 58 deaths, two days worth. 40.9% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1600--> 1557--> 1600--> 1583--> 1524--> 1546--> 1546--> 1534 (-4%)
Vents.. 197---> 184---> 208----> 214----> 205---> 222----> 222---> 221 (+12%)
All southern states not named Florida or Texas are about to decline together. FL and TX already have.
California. 132 deaths. 44.1% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 8380--> 8419--> 8317--> 8439--> 8198--> 7999--> 7754--> 7761 (-8%)
ICU.. 2199--> 2221--> 2198--> 2209--> 2220--> 2163--> 2145--> 2119 (-4%)
California has a "casedemic" now. Massive testing with small %+ tells me there is a ton of asymptomatic testing here which creates a high false positive rate.
Arkansas. 18 deaths. 28.3% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 479--> 489--> 501--> 508--> 508--> 507--> 507--> 499 (+4.2%)
Vent... 105--> 110--> 110--> 108--> 108--> 100--> 100--> 104 (-1%)
Again, same population as MS... MS with twice the numbers. Great job, Tate, take lessons from here on how to deal with the NH's. 28.3%... that's how you do it. That's how you win.
Tennessee. 6 Deaths.
Hosp: 1024--> 1046--> 1121--> 1133--> 1161--> 1121--> 1112--> 1021 (0%)
Watching Shelby county. Might be picking up steam. Rest of the state looks good.
South Carolina. 25 deaths. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1668--> 1668--> 1575--> 1596--> 1563--> 1516--> 1453--> 1427 (-15%)
ICU... 401----> 404----> 389---> 373---> 365
Vent.. 256----> 242----> 245---> 237---> 230
North Carolina. 5 deaths. 50.3% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1170--> 1169--> 1244--> 1291--> 1239--> 1229--> 1151--> 1142 (+3.9%)
Vent.. 364----> 361----> 358---> 363---> 353---> 341
Comments:
1. Japan has 100% mask compliance... 100%. But my point is not about masks with Japan. It's that it just doesn't matter. Even if they worked, it doesn't matter... this virus will do what it pleases:
Stop blaming your fellow man for not wearing a mask AND for wearing a mask, going to an event, going to the beach, going to school, going to church, having dinner out... it doesn't matter. Every time I see a public health official blaming the populace... it's infuriating. With diligence you can protect the vulnerable until it has run through the healthy... that's it. Philippines is no different with heavy mask usage:
Anyway, don't bog up the thread with mask comments. It wasn't my point. My point is that non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) have limited effectiveness on community spread when an aerosolized respiratory virus is the pathogen. You cannot stop it. For another example, Hawaii. A state that has been destroying its economy for 5 months. An island chain whose closest neighbor is 2300 miles away. Guess what? You can't stop it:
That's a 700% increase in a month. Herd immunity (HIT) is the only option.
Now let's hit on that for a second as well. Everyone is using this 60-80% nonsense on HIT. Bogus and mythical. The equation to derive that is based upon the R(t). That R(t) is ~ 2.5 for this virus. 80% would mean an R(t) of 5. Yeah, that's total garbage, no one thinks that. Secondly, that equation is meant for elimination of a pathogen. You cannot eliminate this virus. It will become a common coronavirus that reverts to a less virulent wild type but it wont be eradicated. This does not even consider T-cell immunity and the disproportionate affects on the >65 population which lowers the HIT considerably. It's 15-20% on average. That is becoming abundantly clear.
2. Here's why NPI's don't work:
Home is the problem, not bars, not restaurants... that is Switzerland's contact trace data.
3. Man, these Indian doctors must be insane to give all these people a dangerous drug:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cor...blets-to-states-and-union-territories-2270871
“The Indian government distributes more than 42 million Hydroxychroloquine tablets for preventive and early treatment”.
Guess they know something our awesome US doctors don't...
4. Pretty good piece from the NY Times on immunity:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/...es-immunity.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur
"That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response. Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand."
5. Spot the country that didn't lockdown, bet you can't:
6. The press in Panama wonders if their CV19 problem is because they stopped HCQ after the fraudulent Lancet trial: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://ensegundos.com.pa/2020/07/24/avance-del-covid-puede-ser-resultado-de-suspender-la-hidroxicloroquina/&sandbox=1
7. Remember Ecuador? Bodies in the streets? Now you don't... guess why?
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.idl-reporteros.pe/del-desastre-a-la-victoria-como-guayaquil-vencio-al-covid-19/
8. Another notch in the belt for HCQ: New results from HCQ study in 539 Italian COVID-19 patients published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases. HCQ associated with 66% reduction in death. “Our results are remarkably similar to those shown by Arshad et al. [Henry Ford study].”
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30600-7/fulltext
9. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...term-solution-covid-19-has-become-taboo-says/
'Taboo' herd immunity the only long-term solution to Covid-19, says expert
10. The CDC is waking up. This is a very important change in strategy. Accumulating evidence supports ending isolation and precautions for persons with COVID-19 using a symptom-based strategy. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html
Cheers RGers
~726k tests yesterday, new record.
~56.8 million total tests performed to date.
~48.6k positives with percentage positive at ~6.7%
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 58614--> 59023--> 57091--> 57306--> 56462--> 55536--> 54448--> 53908 (-9%)
ICU.... 10268--> 10328--> 10563--> 10531--> 10517--> 10473--> 10433--> 10405 (+1.3%)
Vent... 2723----> 2720----> 2752---> 2776---> 2760----> 2702---> 2699---> 2644 (-3%)
Downward trends across the board as expected while the southern wave wanes. ~5k drop in hospitalizations week/week. ICU has fallen as well when you take out the newly reporting states.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 147,134 per CTP. 51.3% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 515 deaths today.
209--> 242--> 922--> 897--> 867--> 854--> 757 = 4748 (+35%)
476--> 327--> 736--> 855--> 977--> 951--> 872 = 5194 (+9%)
523--> 365-> 1029> 1126-> 1039-> 1178> 1037 = 6297 (+18%)
558--> 428-> 1121> 1418-> 1262-> 1308> 1172 = 7267 (+15%)
515
Caveat here, TX did not report today and LA was a double count since they no longer report on Saturday. So keep today and tomorrow's number in context. Lower than it should be today and higher tomorrow.
State Data
Mississippi. 10 deaths. 44.7% of deaths in NH's.
672 cases. 171 LTC outbreaks. Lowered that by 30 in a day? Good news if true.
Hosp: 943--> 949--> 969--> 982--> 972--> 989--> 968--> 950 (+0.7%)
ICU... 311--> 304--> 286--> 296--> 296 --> 297--> 302--> 307 (-1.3%)
Vent... 168--> 166--> 169 --> 178--> 177--> 176--> 172--> ??? (+?%)
No hospitalization numbers today on the main page but they were updated in the PDF they post every day now. However, no vent numbers in that document. We are looking better. Reasoning is that suspected and confirmed admission were low yesterday, lowest since mid June for suspected and mid July for confirmed:
Also, just to be sure this wasn't a Sunday thing, I highlighted each Sunday on the suspected graph with a red arrow. No pattern there. 5 & 7-day moving average for both is heading down. ICU bed usage is stable at around 1/3 of beds occupied by CV19 statewide and around 18% ICU bed capacity available. Not sure where this 98% number being thrown around in articles is coming from... it's just not true:
In the busiest area, Jackson, yes, they have been hovering in the 95-99% range.
We are still pretty busy. I did see my first case of myocarditis from CV19 yesterday. Mild case, went home today. Stable census overall. ICU busier than the general ward now which seems to be consistent with the state as a whole and that makes sense as they are in the hospital longer.
A thought on MS. We have around 60,000 cases now. CDC says there are ~10x more than that. So let's say 600k. That's is 20% of the population of 3,000,000. Herd immunity threshold almost everywhere has been 15-20%. NYC, the hardest hit area was ~23%. At 2100 deaths, 700/mil, it gives MS an iFR of 0.35%. That seems about right given the overall health of the population and number of LTC outbreaks we have seen. Might even get to 0.4%. These numbers are consistent with a hard hit area. I'd not consider MS a hard hit area like NY, but hard hit because of our risk factors. Two different things but both give a much worse than normal result all the same.
Texas. Deaths ???. 38.2% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 10036--> 9827--> 10075--> 9781--> 9595--> 9296--> 9336--> 8969-->? (-?%)
ICU: 3180---> 3209--> 3281--> 3136---> 3136--> 3087--> 3117--> 3117-->? (-?%)
No update from Texas today. Unclear why unless they are taking Sunday's off now like some other states. That being said, TMC is looking great with rapid declines across the board with a 33% drop in hospitalizations since the peak:
Overall trend in the are is the same:
Florida. 62 deaths. 43% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 8951--> 9098--> 8992--> 8720--> 8395--> 8209--> 8072--> 7952 (-12%)
The steady decline here continues. ILI/CLI syndromic surveillance is back to early June levels. Every county I look at is on the decline in terms of hospitalizations and %+ testing. Interestingly, the date of death curve is still showing a peak around 7/17. A bit of a surprise and a good one. If that holds up and doesn't shift into last week like most expected, it would mean fewer deaths than expected by a decent margin:
Georgia. 15 deaths. 43.5% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3079--> 3181--> 3157--> 3188--> 3200--> 3155--> 3095--> 3069 (-0.4%)
Looks like we are there. One more day would confirm.
Arizona. 18 deaths. 38.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2650--> 2626--> 2564--> 2424--> 2348--> 2302--> 2226--> 2147 (-19%)
ICU.... 837---> 820----> 814---> 800---> 758----> 719---> 710---> 685 (-19%)
Vent... 581---> 567----> 574---> 561---> 531----> 505---> 490---> 474 (-19%)
No one talks about AZ anymore... 15.3% antibody positive. That's what it takes and why no one mentions it anymore. It's looking great. Down 39% from the peak in mid July. That means deaths should be heading down here... save for the occasional death cert matching dump.
Alabama. 24 deaths. ~2000 cases today with a declining 7 day moving average.
Hosp: 1505--> 1599--> 1598--> 1598--> 1595--> 1596--> 1559--> 1529 (+1.6%).
Once again, remember AL doesn't have full hospital reporting on the weekend. I'll be very interested to see this number tomorrow. Mobile with a monster number of cases today at 532. That has to be some kind of backlog testing dump.
Louisiana. 58 deaths, two days worth. 40.9% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1600--> 1557--> 1600--> 1583--> 1524--> 1546--> 1546--> 1534 (-4%)
Vents.. 197---> 184---> 208----> 214----> 205---> 222----> 222---> 221 (+12%)
All southern states not named Florida or Texas are about to decline together. FL and TX already have.
California. 132 deaths. 44.1% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 8380--> 8419--> 8317--> 8439--> 8198--> 7999--> 7754--> 7761 (-8%)
ICU.. 2199--> 2221--> 2198--> 2209--> 2220--> 2163--> 2145--> 2119 (-4%)
California has a "casedemic" now. Massive testing with small %+ tells me there is a ton of asymptomatic testing here which creates a high false positive rate.
Arkansas. 18 deaths. 28.3% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 479--> 489--> 501--> 508--> 508--> 507--> 507--> 499 (+4.2%)
Vent... 105--> 110--> 110--> 108--> 108--> 100--> 100--> 104 (-1%)
Again, same population as MS... MS with twice the numbers. Great job, Tate, take lessons from here on how to deal with the NH's. 28.3%... that's how you do it. That's how you win.
Tennessee. 6 Deaths.
Hosp: 1024--> 1046--> 1121--> 1133--> 1161--> 1121--> 1112--> 1021 (0%)
Watching Shelby county. Might be picking up steam. Rest of the state looks good.
South Carolina. 25 deaths. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1668--> 1668--> 1575--> 1596--> 1563--> 1516--> 1453--> 1427 (-15%)
ICU... 401----> 404----> 389---> 373---> 365
Vent.. 256----> 242----> 245---> 237---> 230
North Carolina. 5 deaths. 50.3% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1170--> 1169--> 1244--> 1291--> 1239--> 1229--> 1151--> 1142 (+3.9%)
Vent.. 364----> 361----> 358---> 363---> 353---> 341
Comments:
1. Japan has 100% mask compliance... 100%. But my point is not about masks with Japan. It's that it just doesn't matter. Even if they worked, it doesn't matter... this virus will do what it pleases:
Stop blaming your fellow man for not wearing a mask AND for wearing a mask, going to an event, going to the beach, going to school, going to church, having dinner out... it doesn't matter. Every time I see a public health official blaming the populace... it's infuriating. With diligence you can protect the vulnerable until it has run through the healthy... that's it. Philippines is no different with heavy mask usage:
Anyway, don't bog up the thread with mask comments. It wasn't my point. My point is that non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) have limited effectiveness on community spread when an aerosolized respiratory virus is the pathogen. You cannot stop it. For another example, Hawaii. A state that has been destroying its economy for 5 months. An island chain whose closest neighbor is 2300 miles away. Guess what? You can't stop it:
That's a 700% increase in a month. Herd immunity (HIT) is the only option.
Now let's hit on that for a second as well. Everyone is using this 60-80% nonsense on HIT. Bogus and mythical. The equation to derive that is based upon the R(t). That R(t) is ~ 2.5 for this virus. 80% would mean an R(t) of 5. Yeah, that's total garbage, no one thinks that. Secondly, that equation is meant for elimination of a pathogen. You cannot eliminate this virus. It will become a common coronavirus that reverts to a less virulent wild type but it wont be eradicated. This does not even consider T-cell immunity and the disproportionate affects on the >65 population which lowers the HIT considerably. It's 15-20% on average. That is becoming abundantly clear.
2. Here's why NPI's don't work:
Home is the problem, not bars, not restaurants... that is Switzerland's contact trace data.
3. Man, these Indian doctors must be insane to give all these people a dangerous drug:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cor...blets-to-states-and-union-territories-2270871
“The Indian government distributes more than 42 million Hydroxychroloquine tablets for preventive and early treatment”.
Guess they know something our awesome US doctors don't...
4. Pretty good piece from the NY Times on immunity:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/...es-immunity.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur
"That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response. Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand."
5. Spot the country that didn't lockdown, bet you can't:
6. The press in Panama wonders if their CV19 problem is because they stopped HCQ after the fraudulent Lancet trial: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=es&tl=en&u=https://ensegundos.com.pa/2020/07/24/avance-del-covid-puede-ser-resultado-de-suspender-la-hidroxicloroquina/&sandbox=1
7. Remember Ecuador? Bodies in the streets? Now you don't... guess why?
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.idl-reporteros.pe/del-desastre-a-la-victoria-como-guayaquil-vencio-al-covid-19/
8. Another notch in the belt for HCQ: New results from HCQ study in 539 Italian COVID-19 patients published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases. HCQ associated with 66% reduction in death. “Our results are remarkably similar to those shown by Arshad et al. [Henry Ford study].”
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30600-7/fulltext
9. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...term-solution-covid-19-has-become-taboo-says/
'Taboo' herd immunity the only long-term solution to Covid-19, says expert
10. The CDC is waking up. This is a very important change in strategy. Accumulating evidence supports ending isolation and precautions for persons with COVID-19 using a symptom-based strategy. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html
Cheers RGers
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