I was asked about Ole Miss’ current roster and the MLB Draft yesterday, and Keith Law put out his top 50 prospects, so it’s a good time for an early primer. This is still a pretty early look, so I’ll get more detail and put out information with a higher accuracy level closer to Draft time. Here’s where we are right now.
The MLB Draft is June 12-14 — the Monday between super regionals and the College World Series.
Ole Miss’ draft-eligible underclassmen:
Tate Blackman
Tim Rowe
Will Golsan
Kyle Watson
David Parkinson
Will Stokes
Michael Fitzsimmons
Brady Fiegl
There may be a true sophomore that’s old enough to be eligible, but I haven’t heard of one likely to leave, so we’ll stay with this list for now. I’ll double check though.
Sean Johnson and Colby Bortles are the seniors on this team.
As of now, I think you’re looking at a group of Blackman, Parkinson, Stokes and Fiegl as the main candidates to leave early. These are just my guesses that are somewhat educated, but I think Parkinson is the most likely to jump early. With a proven four-pitch mix and enough fastball scouts are intrigued by him, and he’s thrown enough SEC innings for a track record. I don’t think he’s a top-five rounder or anything, but whatever it is should be enough to make coming back a serious gamble if he wants to give pro ball a shot.
Blackman has some issues as a pro prospect, but he’s a known entity and has been around scouts for years. He was a 20th round pick out of high school after turning down money in much-earlier rounds and then wasn’t drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2016. Tate is almost 23 years old, so I think he signs if given an opportunity to move on. I’m not sure if another year would make much of a difference and in a year he’d be a 23-year-old senior that would likely be taken in the ninth round and paid $5,000 as a way for a club to save money in the slot system. So if drafted it seems like he will accept any offer.
I think, as of now, Ole Miss gets Stokes and Feigl back next season. Stokes hasn’t had a progression season, and right-handers with his measurables are readily available in the Draft. Earlier in the year I had his sign chances higher, but the odds continue to move toward him returning for another season. I’ll stay on this though.
Feigl has the best stuff of the bunch and would most intriguing to me if I were a scout. Good velocity, very smart guy who can throw some brutally good breaking balls. Some fine-tuning needs to be done, but scouts aren’t worried about that. The “it just takes one team” makes this a tad scary for Ole Miss because someone may fall in love with him earlier than expected, but a big junior year in a set role will be good for him to jump up board. He reminds me of Aaron Barrett.
I, honestly, haven’t heard a word — good or bad — about Will Golsan. Let me dig around, but I’ll say he’s staying until told otherwise.
Keith Law yesterday released an ESPN Insider article with his top 50 prospects. I went over some of the names on the podcast, and there were two Ole Miss signees in the top 35. Law has Dekalb County (Tenn.) right-hander Steven Jennings at No. 31 and Vestavia Hills (Ala.) right-hander Caden Lemons at No. 34. This list includes high school and college prospects.
Law on Jennings: Jennings tore his ACL in September while playing quarterback and came back midway through his school’s baseball season. His stuff has been inconsistent compared to last spring and summer.
Law on Lemons: Lemons has already been up to 95-96 and remains very projectable with a long, skinny frame. He leads a strong pack of Alabama prep pitchers this year.
Perfect Game, which is fairly irrelevant compared to actual Draft helium, has Jennings at No. 83 and Lemons at No. 151. Jennings was up to 93 MPH prior to the ACL tear, and Ole Miss’ best argument here is he’s right-handed and 6-foot-2, so while impressive nothing separates him from other really good prospects.
Lemons has the easier delivery and is 6-foot-6. He also has a fairly advanced changeup that sticks out for his age. High school pitchers don’t need changeups because typically that pitch just helps a hitter catch up to things.
I’ve seen a lot of people discuss Tim Elko, and here’s some good news for Ole Miss. He’s the most important piece of the class, and he’s far more likely to show than a few of these pitchers. He’s highly ranked at No. 58, but it’s important to understand the Draft and what people look at. Elko can easily play third base in college, but scouts see him as a first baseman eventually, and he’s right-handed. You better be Goliath to be drafted incredibly high with that profile. It happens, but as of now Elko needs to show up and dominate college pitching by his junior year. I reserve my right to update my guess here, but I feel good about this as of now.
Ole Miss needs bats and Elko is 1A when looking at newcomers for next season. I don’t sense much worry that he’ll skip college. Focus more on Jennings and Lemons with your worry. Also pay some attention to Jordan Fowler, a 6-foot-2 left out of Dyer County (Tenn.). Perfect Game has him vastly underrated, and scouts are starting to take notice. He’s shown some pretty elite stuff this spring. So, if someone mentions Elko out on the golf course as a major concern, throw out Fowler’s name instead. You may look smart in a couple months.
Keeping it real: This is a fairly bad year in the state of Mississippi for college prospects. Ole Miss has one in-state commitment - Prep right-hander Matthew Myers. Tanner Smith was also committed out of Houston, but he’s going to Northeast. And it’s not just Ole Miss. MSU doesn’t have a single Mississippi kid signed for 2017. The class just isn't good.
Also, keep in mind that Law’s list isn’t a mock draft. He’s listing his top players, but that doesn’t mean those players are going in the top 50 picks. He has Olive Branch catcher Cordell Dunn at No. 50, and he’s not a top 50 prospect when talking about first 50 picks. I think he’ll easily show at Texas Tech.
One last Ole Miss note: It’s not a big class out of necessity. Not to get in another scholarship discussion, but after last year with all those kids showing, there’s not a ton of 11.7 to throw around. It’s where you see the issue. It’s almost impossible to throw out top-10 classes year over year because the money simply isn’t available. It’s tied up in current players that aren’t draft eligible. Get some studs. Get some solid players. Be efficient. Stay competitive. Complement the roster.
More when I know it. Peace.
The MLB Draft is June 12-14 — the Monday between super regionals and the College World Series.
Ole Miss’ draft-eligible underclassmen:
Tate Blackman
Tim Rowe
Will Golsan
Kyle Watson
David Parkinson
Will Stokes
Michael Fitzsimmons
Brady Fiegl
There may be a true sophomore that’s old enough to be eligible, but I haven’t heard of one likely to leave, so we’ll stay with this list for now. I’ll double check though.
Sean Johnson and Colby Bortles are the seniors on this team.
As of now, I think you’re looking at a group of Blackman, Parkinson, Stokes and Fiegl as the main candidates to leave early. These are just my guesses that are somewhat educated, but I think Parkinson is the most likely to jump early. With a proven four-pitch mix and enough fastball scouts are intrigued by him, and he’s thrown enough SEC innings for a track record. I don’t think he’s a top-five rounder or anything, but whatever it is should be enough to make coming back a serious gamble if he wants to give pro ball a shot.
Blackman has some issues as a pro prospect, but he’s a known entity and has been around scouts for years. He was a 20th round pick out of high school after turning down money in much-earlier rounds and then wasn’t drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2016. Tate is almost 23 years old, so I think he signs if given an opportunity to move on. I’m not sure if another year would make much of a difference and in a year he’d be a 23-year-old senior that would likely be taken in the ninth round and paid $5,000 as a way for a club to save money in the slot system. So if drafted it seems like he will accept any offer.
I think, as of now, Ole Miss gets Stokes and Feigl back next season. Stokes hasn’t had a progression season, and right-handers with his measurables are readily available in the Draft. Earlier in the year I had his sign chances higher, but the odds continue to move toward him returning for another season. I’ll stay on this though.
Feigl has the best stuff of the bunch and would most intriguing to me if I were a scout. Good velocity, very smart guy who can throw some brutally good breaking balls. Some fine-tuning needs to be done, but scouts aren’t worried about that. The “it just takes one team” makes this a tad scary for Ole Miss because someone may fall in love with him earlier than expected, but a big junior year in a set role will be good for him to jump up board. He reminds me of Aaron Barrett.
I, honestly, haven’t heard a word — good or bad — about Will Golsan. Let me dig around, but I’ll say he’s staying until told otherwise.
Keith Law yesterday released an ESPN Insider article with his top 50 prospects. I went over some of the names on the podcast, and there were two Ole Miss signees in the top 35. Law has Dekalb County (Tenn.) right-hander Steven Jennings at No. 31 and Vestavia Hills (Ala.) right-hander Caden Lemons at No. 34. This list includes high school and college prospects.
Law on Jennings: Jennings tore his ACL in September while playing quarterback and came back midway through his school’s baseball season. His stuff has been inconsistent compared to last spring and summer.
Law on Lemons: Lemons has already been up to 95-96 and remains very projectable with a long, skinny frame. He leads a strong pack of Alabama prep pitchers this year.
Perfect Game, which is fairly irrelevant compared to actual Draft helium, has Jennings at No. 83 and Lemons at No. 151. Jennings was up to 93 MPH prior to the ACL tear, and Ole Miss’ best argument here is he’s right-handed and 6-foot-2, so while impressive nothing separates him from other really good prospects.
Lemons has the easier delivery and is 6-foot-6. He also has a fairly advanced changeup that sticks out for his age. High school pitchers don’t need changeups because typically that pitch just helps a hitter catch up to things.
I’ve seen a lot of people discuss Tim Elko, and here’s some good news for Ole Miss. He’s the most important piece of the class, and he’s far more likely to show than a few of these pitchers. He’s highly ranked at No. 58, but it’s important to understand the Draft and what people look at. Elko can easily play third base in college, but scouts see him as a first baseman eventually, and he’s right-handed. You better be Goliath to be drafted incredibly high with that profile. It happens, but as of now Elko needs to show up and dominate college pitching by his junior year. I reserve my right to update my guess here, but I feel good about this as of now.
Ole Miss needs bats and Elko is 1A when looking at newcomers for next season. I don’t sense much worry that he’ll skip college. Focus more on Jennings and Lemons with your worry. Also pay some attention to Jordan Fowler, a 6-foot-2 left out of Dyer County (Tenn.). Perfect Game has him vastly underrated, and scouts are starting to take notice. He’s shown some pretty elite stuff this spring. So, if someone mentions Elko out on the golf course as a major concern, throw out Fowler’s name instead. You may look smart in a couple months.
Keeping it real: This is a fairly bad year in the state of Mississippi for college prospects. Ole Miss has one in-state commitment - Prep right-hander Matthew Myers. Tanner Smith was also committed out of Houston, but he’s going to Northeast. And it’s not just Ole Miss. MSU doesn’t have a single Mississippi kid signed for 2017. The class just isn't good.
Also, keep in mind that Law’s list isn’t a mock draft. He’s listing his top players, but that doesn’t mean those players are going in the top 50 picks. He has Olive Branch catcher Cordell Dunn at No. 50, and he’s not a top 50 prospect when talking about first 50 picks. I think he’ll easily show at Texas Tech.
One last Ole Miss note: It’s not a big class out of necessity. Not to get in another scholarship discussion, but after last year with all those kids showing, there’s not a ton of 11.7 to throw around. It’s where you see the issue. It’s almost impossible to throw out top-10 classes year over year because the money simply isn’t available. It’s tied up in current players that aren’t draft eligible. Get some studs. Get some solid players. Be efficient. Stay competitive. Complement the roster.
More when I know it. Peace.
