538's graph showing "the winding path" to 270 is the best roadmap for following the electoral votes - I think anyway. The updated graph shows that Colorado, NH and Nevada (as Pennsylvania to a degree) are the focal states with less than two months to go - assuming the other states remain static. In each of those three states, the polls are within the margin of error - this may be a photo finish after all. And if it comes down to Nevada, it will be a late night.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
ETA: 538 updated a few hours ago and has put Nevada into Trump's column. NH is now Clinton's firewall - as of 9.20.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
ETA: 538 updated a few hours ago and has put Nevada into Trump's column. NH is now Clinton's firewall - as of 9.20.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Last edited:
