Opinion | Brace Yourself for a Republican Wave
As voters shift their attention to the economy and crime, polls begin to hint at a major GOP advantage.
www.wsj.com
Here are a few excerpts:
"A late September ABC News/Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it’s needed most. The GOP had a 5-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in “competitive” congressional districts."
"A majority of a full House is 218. As of Sunday, RealClearPolitics rates 221 seats as leaning, likely or securely Republican, to 176 for the Democrats. The other 38 seats are toss-ups."
"If there are no upsets on either side and the toss-ups are evenly split, that brings Republicans to a 240-195 majority—a gain of 28 seats. A Republican sweep of the toss-up races would expand the majority to 259-176. That’s vanishingly unlikely, but so is a Democratic sweep of the toss-ups—which would still leave the GOP with a seven-seat majority."
"Historical trends favor Republicans too. In midterm elections since 1982, generic polling averages in the weeks leading up to the election have overestimated the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3.5 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. When the president was a Democrat (in 1994, 1998, 2010 and 2014), the overestimate averaged 8.6 points."
"RealClearPolitics projects the Republicans will gain two seats, in Georgia and Nevada, and hold their current seats, for a 52-seat majority."
"A more familiar predictor of midterm performance is the president’s approval rating. President Biden’s current approval rating of 42% last month is on par with Bill Clinton’s in September 1994 (42%) and Barack Obama’s in September 2010 (45%), as per Gallup polling. In those years Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively. Republican gains this year are almost certain to be more modest than that—but only because the GOP already picked up 14 seats in 2020."
Author: Mr. Schoen was a senior adviser to Bill Clinton’s 1996 campaign, a White House adviser (1994-2000) and an adviser to Hillary Clinton’s 2000 U.S. Senate campaign. Mr. Stein, a Democrat, served as New York City Council president, 1986-94.
