Baseball can quickly make analysis foolish. Most observations only play out over large sample sizes and marathons seasons, as single games and single series can go any number of ways. Game one of the series between Ole Miss and Arkansas didn’t do that at all. It completely fit what was expected between the two SEC West leaders.
Arkansas took the opener, 7-3, after not having a hit until the sixth inning. Game two is in 75 minutes. Here are a few thoughts.
Gunnar Hoglund was tremendous for five innings. The junior took that no-hitter into the sixth but it took him 95 pitches to do it. Eight strikeouts, some umpire squeezing lackluser command with offspeed pitches and some wasted pitches while ahead in the count all contributed to an absurdly high amount of pitches. He walked four in the first five innings and then another in the sixth after a hit and an out. He's as dominant at times right now as any starter I've covered other than Drew Pomeranz, but the pitch count often gets away from him. He did his job, but the recipe for this one called for him to go at least six innings.
Arkansas, as I'd written earlier in the week, has only scored six runs in the first three innings of SEC play this year, and that continued today. However, the Razorbacks did a nice job aiding Hoglund in the expanded pitch count and then beating up the Ole Miss bullpen. That's how the Hogs win games. Arkansas isn't great at anything, but it's solid in everything and hangs around as well as any team in the conference. Starters maximizing outs is how to beat the Razorbacks.
This game was lost on offense for Ole Miss because of the Rebels' inability to add on and run the lead up while Hoglund was on the mound. Games develop different moods and situations if the score is 5-0 or 6-0 instead of 3-0. Ole Miss was 0-for-5 with the bases loaded and all five at-bats ended with strikeouts. The Rebels didn't score the runner from third with less than two outs on both occasions it was set up, and Ole Miss was 2-for-8 with runners in scoring positions. The opportunities were there to run the Razorbacks out of there at different points in the game.
The lineup is a mess right now in Tim Elko's absence. Maybe someone steps up and maybe it happens quickly, but the bottom four of the order went 1-for-14 with eight strikeouts, and the hit came from Hayden Leatherwood pinch hitting in an at-bat of no consequence late in the game. Calvin Harris put in play twice after he came in, but both were double plays. Cael Baker now has 22 strikeouts in 43 at-bats this season. Ben Van Cleve is 1 for his last 14. Trey LaFleur struck out in his pinch hit at-bat and now has 14 strikeouts in 25 at-bats. Ole Miss played that game with half a lineup. That doesn't work. The top five in the order went 12-for-23 but got zero help. Hayden Dunhurst went 5-for-5 with a first-inning double that gave the Rebels a 2-0 lead.
Ole Miss has to find a way to get something out of the bottom half. Also, Tyler Myers and Austin Miller both struggled in relief and couldn't keep the game close. There's an argument to be made to go to Taylor Broadway to start the seventh in a tie game and hope he can throw three scoreless while the offense finds a run. It's not an easy decision because Ole Miss didn't score and you risk burning him for the weekend in a loss that you didn't have the lead while he was in there. But it was a high-leverage situation that got away from Ole Miss quickly. I wouldn't have done it, but I recognize the opportunity for it to be a move. This bullpen needs to be deeper quickly.
Doug Nikhazy has the same task as Hoglund -- he has to give the Rebels six or seven if at all possible.
Arkansas took the opener, 7-3, after not having a hit until the sixth inning. Game two is in 75 minutes. Here are a few thoughts.
Gunnar Hoglund was tremendous for five innings. The junior took that no-hitter into the sixth but it took him 95 pitches to do it. Eight strikeouts, some umpire squeezing lackluser command with offspeed pitches and some wasted pitches while ahead in the count all contributed to an absurdly high amount of pitches. He walked four in the first five innings and then another in the sixth after a hit and an out. He's as dominant at times right now as any starter I've covered other than Drew Pomeranz, but the pitch count often gets away from him. He did his job, but the recipe for this one called for him to go at least six innings.
Arkansas, as I'd written earlier in the week, has only scored six runs in the first three innings of SEC play this year, and that continued today. However, the Razorbacks did a nice job aiding Hoglund in the expanded pitch count and then beating up the Ole Miss bullpen. That's how the Hogs win games. Arkansas isn't great at anything, but it's solid in everything and hangs around as well as any team in the conference. Starters maximizing outs is how to beat the Razorbacks.
This game was lost on offense for Ole Miss because of the Rebels' inability to add on and run the lead up while Hoglund was on the mound. Games develop different moods and situations if the score is 5-0 or 6-0 instead of 3-0. Ole Miss was 0-for-5 with the bases loaded and all five at-bats ended with strikeouts. The Rebels didn't score the runner from third with less than two outs on both occasions it was set up, and Ole Miss was 2-for-8 with runners in scoring positions. The opportunities were there to run the Razorbacks out of there at different points in the game.
The lineup is a mess right now in Tim Elko's absence. Maybe someone steps up and maybe it happens quickly, but the bottom four of the order went 1-for-14 with eight strikeouts, and the hit came from Hayden Leatherwood pinch hitting in an at-bat of no consequence late in the game. Calvin Harris put in play twice after he came in, but both were double plays. Cael Baker now has 22 strikeouts in 43 at-bats this season. Ben Van Cleve is 1 for his last 14. Trey LaFleur struck out in his pinch hit at-bat and now has 14 strikeouts in 25 at-bats. Ole Miss played that game with half a lineup. That doesn't work. The top five in the order went 12-for-23 but got zero help. Hayden Dunhurst went 5-for-5 with a first-inning double that gave the Rebels a 2-0 lead.
Ole Miss has to find a way to get something out of the bottom half. Also, Tyler Myers and Austin Miller both struggled in relief and couldn't keep the game close. There's an argument to be made to go to Taylor Broadway to start the seventh in a tie game and hope he can throw three scoreless while the offense finds a run. It's not an easy decision because Ole Miss didn't score and you risk burning him for the weekend in a loss that you didn't have the lead while he was in there. But it was a high-leverage situation that got away from Ole Miss quickly. I wouldn't have done it, but I recognize the opportunity for it to be a move. This bullpen needs to be deeper quickly.
Doug Nikhazy has the same task as Hoglund -- he has to give the Rebels six or seven if at all possible.
