My son is turning 13 this year and we have a tradition among my kids that we take them on a 1 on 1 trip to (most) anywhere they choose in the lower 48. My son has opted to use this to go wherever the Rebs end up next week and then we will try to build other events around the games. We are trying to make plans and arrangements ASAP once the announcement happens on Sunday. I thought there could be a better way to make probabilites instead of assuming 1:8 / 12.5% odds at each location. I then realized each host site doesn't necessarily get an even distribution of seeds. Assuming we are projected most places as a 5 (posting before Auburn SECT game), I am projecting that we will be a 4, 5 or 6 seed. I put each location with all of their seeds below:
Highest odds are for Seattle since they get 2 4/11 and 5/12 matchups, followed by Denver and Providence. Odds for Milwaukee, Providence, and Denver would increase if we beat auburn and wedge into a 3 seed, but that is doubtful. Lexington, Cleveland and Wichita only comes into play if we get a 7. We won't be going to Raleigh.
In most cases, I think we can take that list of 8 places down to 4. I am looking at flights and Hotels assuming Seattle, Denver, Providence, or Milwaukee in that order and will be ready to pull the trigger during the selection show.
Any thoughts or anything I may be missing?
| LOCATION | DATE | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | 4-5-6 Seeds | 4-5-6 Probability |
| Denver | Thursday | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 25% |
| Lexington | Thursday | 1 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| Providence | Thursday | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 25% |
| Wichita | Thursday | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0% |
| Cleveland | Friday | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| Milwaukee | Friday | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 17% |
| Raleigh | Friday | 1 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0% |
| Seattle | Friday | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 33% |
Highest odds are for Seattle since they get 2 4/11 and 5/12 matchups, followed by Denver and Providence. Odds for Milwaukee, Providence, and Denver would increase if we beat auburn and wedge into a 3 seed, but that is doubtful. Lexington, Cleveland and Wichita only comes into play if we get a 7. We won't be going to Raleigh.
In most cases, I think we can take that list of 8 places down to 4. I am looking at flights and Hotels assuming Seattle, Denver, Providence, or Milwaukee in that order and will be ready to pull the trigger during the selection show.
Any thoughts or anything I may be missing?
