The MLB Draft gets started tonight with the first two rounds and the continues with rounds 3-10 on Tuesday and round 11-40 on Wednesday. If you're not aware of how it works, each franchise gets a bonus pool to use in the first 10 rounds, and there are penalties if they go over that total pool by certain percentages.
Each pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot value, and that's a recommended dollar amount for that signing bonus. That's how the the total pool amounts are decided. Outside of the top 10 rounds, there's a cap on the total amount that can be offered, but if there's money left over from the top-10 round pool that can be used on those picks outside the top 10 rounds. That's why you'll see teams sign seniors in the 7th to 10th rounds and give them $10,000. They are freeing up more money for other prospects.
Here's a list of what every slot value is worth this year.
I don't really have a method to this, but here are some paragraphs on specific players and I'll combine some players in the same thought.
Jerrion Ealy: The only consensus is most people expect him to play football at Ole Miss. The athletic two-sport start has plummeted down Draft boards and didn't have scouts at most of his games in the last month of the season. That's a bad sign. A lot of football people expect the A.J. Brown route of signing professionally in baseball and playing college football, but a lot of teams are scared of that because no one expects him to grind in the Gulf Coast League and develop. Ealy is a project from a baseball standpoint, and there's no good option for clubs. He's probably not worth his ask on baseball alone, and he plays running back in the SEC, so there's the constant injury risk. And even if he choose baseball in four years he still has to try to develop and you have to hope he has his same athleticism.
It just takes one team, and we'll see what happens, but the only thing that would shock me is if he's chosen highly and given a huge bonus. I could see a major fall down the list, and I could see him coming off his number to try to guarantee something in a baseball-football deal. Either way Ole Miss football has to like its place right now. Months ago it looked like a potential Jordyn Adams situation, but that's no longer the case.
Hayden Dunhurst: The Pearl River Central catcher is really coveted by a couple teams and is liked by a lot of teams. Perfect Game has him at No. 44 nationally, and he could push for immediate playing time next season with the Rebels.
The Marlins and Dodgers are both very high on him, so while I don’t see it happening this high, start paying attention at No. 46 overall today. My guess would be Marlins at 82 or maybe the Dodgers at 78. The 82nd pick has a lot value of $744,000 but I could see a team taking Dunhurst around there and offering him somewhere around $1.25 million. It’s a mixed message on whether that would be enough to sway him.
If he comes off his number then it brings a lot of other teams into the mix. But at the range currently necessary, the Dodgers and Marlins are two teams to worry about.
Connor Walsh: The shortstop who is the No. 27 player in the class, ran a 6.25-second 60-yard dash and is a hell of an athlete. He could get seven figures, but he’s a CAA client, and his number is quite large. As of right now I think he’s coming to school barring a mind change about how much he wants. He’s a stud. Plug him in somewhere next season if I’m right.
Derek Diamond and Drew McDaniel: The two high-profile right-handers have severe signability issues and want to come to school. They also have been injured some this spring and fallen down the boards a bit. That’s a great thing for Ole Miss. I project both to show in Oxford. Wes Burton falls in this category, too.
I think Grae Kessinger and Cooper Johnson both have a chance to go at the end of today or early tomorrow. I’ve heard some buzz about Kessinger around that Dodgers’ pick at 78. Coop is looking at second round to fourth round most likely. I’ll be surprised if Kessinger is still around in the fourth round.
There’s a chance a team reaches a little on Thomas Dillard tomorrow. A fourth round selection with some leeway either way wouldn’t surprise me as heavy-analytics teams like the model his numbers spit out. Some clubs like his extra base hits and walks and are relying on his exit velocity numbers which are in the top-10 in college baseball. Dillard could be affected to other picks and slide a little, but don’t be shocked if he comes off earlier than maybe expected.
I’ve heard Will Ethridge is a middle-of-the-day tomorrow signee — probably fourth to sixth rounds, and I think there’s a decent chance Zack Phillips and Austin Miller go with day-three offers. But we’ll see. I don’t have nearly as much data on those two as some others. I think Cole Zabowski is a late day two or early day three pick, and I expect him to sign.
Trey Lafleur is a left-handed outfielder form Pensacola. If you’re looking for a sleeper to maybe emerge as a star in the class, this would be the one to buy stock with. He’s rated No. 217 nationally, and he can really play. He’s told clubs his signing bonus demands are very, very high, but I’d keep an eye on him if a club throws a high six-figure offer out there this week. There are two or three teams willing to go in that $700,000 range.
Meridian Community College pitcher Braden Forsyth isn’t talked about much, but he may be one of the bigger names to watch as the days develop this week. I don’t think he would go before day three, but I’m not hearing he’s impossible to sign either. It’s a mid 90s fastball and good stuff to complement that. He’d have a better than average chance to help immediately next season.
As always one team can throw a lot of this stuff off schedule. But as of now I’m pretty comfortable that this is the correct lay of the land. This could be a hell of a class and there's at least the chance of sweeping it. But I don't think worst case is all that awful. Either way it's a good group headed to Oxford.
Each pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot value, and that's a recommended dollar amount for that signing bonus. That's how the the total pool amounts are decided. Outside of the top 10 rounds, there's a cap on the total amount that can be offered, but if there's money left over from the top-10 round pool that can be used on those picks outside the top 10 rounds. That's why you'll see teams sign seniors in the 7th to 10th rounds and give them $10,000. They are freeing up more money for other prospects.
Here's a list of what every slot value is worth this year.
I don't really have a method to this, but here are some paragraphs on specific players and I'll combine some players in the same thought.
Jerrion Ealy: The only consensus is most people expect him to play football at Ole Miss. The athletic two-sport start has plummeted down Draft boards and didn't have scouts at most of his games in the last month of the season. That's a bad sign. A lot of football people expect the A.J. Brown route of signing professionally in baseball and playing college football, but a lot of teams are scared of that because no one expects him to grind in the Gulf Coast League and develop. Ealy is a project from a baseball standpoint, and there's no good option for clubs. He's probably not worth his ask on baseball alone, and he plays running back in the SEC, so there's the constant injury risk. And even if he choose baseball in four years he still has to try to develop and you have to hope he has his same athleticism.
It just takes one team, and we'll see what happens, but the only thing that would shock me is if he's chosen highly and given a huge bonus. I could see a major fall down the list, and I could see him coming off his number to try to guarantee something in a baseball-football deal. Either way Ole Miss football has to like its place right now. Months ago it looked like a potential Jordyn Adams situation, but that's no longer the case.
Hayden Dunhurst: The Pearl River Central catcher is really coveted by a couple teams and is liked by a lot of teams. Perfect Game has him at No. 44 nationally, and he could push for immediate playing time next season with the Rebels.
The Marlins and Dodgers are both very high on him, so while I don’t see it happening this high, start paying attention at No. 46 overall today. My guess would be Marlins at 82 or maybe the Dodgers at 78. The 82nd pick has a lot value of $744,000 but I could see a team taking Dunhurst around there and offering him somewhere around $1.25 million. It’s a mixed message on whether that would be enough to sway him.
If he comes off his number then it brings a lot of other teams into the mix. But at the range currently necessary, the Dodgers and Marlins are two teams to worry about.
Connor Walsh: The shortstop who is the No. 27 player in the class, ran a 6.25-second 60-yard dash and is a hell of an athlete. He could get seven figures, but he’s a CAA client, and his number is quite large. As of right now I think he’s coming to school barring a mind change about how much he wants. He’s a stud. Plug him in somewhere next season if I’m right.
Derek Diamond and Drew McDaniel: The two high-profile right-handers have severe signability issues and want to come to school. They also have been injured some this spring and fallen down the boards a bit. That’s a great thing for Ole Miss. I project both to show in Oxford. Wes Burton falls in this category, too.
I think Grae Kessinger and Cooper Johnson both have a chance to go at the end of today or early tomorrow. I’ve heard some buzz about Kessinger around that Dodgers’ pick at 78. Coop is looking at second round to fourth round most likely. I’ll be surprised if Kessinger is still around in the fourth round.
There’s a chance a team reaches a little on Thomas Dillard tomorrow. A fourth round selection with some leeway either way wouldn’t surprise me as heavy-analytics teams like the model his numbers spit out. Some clubs like his extra base hits and walks and are relying on his exit velocity numbers which are in the top-10 in college baseball. Dillard could be affected to other picks and slide a little, but don’t be shocked if he comes off earlier than maybe expected.
I’ve heard Will Ethridge is a middle-of-the-day tomorrow signee — probably fourth to sixth rounds, and I think there’s a decent chance Zack Phillips and Austin Miller go with day-three offers. But we’ll see. I don’t have nearly as much data on those two as some others. I think Cole Zabowski is a late day two or early day three pick, and I expect him to sign.
Trey Lafleur is a left-handed outfielder form Pensacola. If you’re looking for a sleeper to maybe emerge as a star in the class, this would be the one to buy stock with. He’s rated No. 217 nationally, and he can really play. He’s told clubs his signing bonus demands are very, very high, but I’d keep an eye on him if a club throws a high six-figure offer out there this week. There are two or three teams willing to go in that $700,000 range.
Meridian Community College pitcher Braden Forsyth isn’t talked about much, but he may be one of the bigger names to watch as the days develop this week. I don’t think he would go before day three, but I’m not hearing he’s impossible to sign either. It’s a mid 90s fastball and good stuff to complement that. He’d have a better than average chance to help immediately next season.
As always one team can throw a lot of this stuff off schedule. But as of now I’m pretty comfortable that this is the correct lay of the land. This could be a hell of a class and there's at least the chance of sweeping it. But I don't think worst case is all that awful. Either way it's a good group headed to Oxford.
