Best Bet
No. 11 BYU Cougars (Giant Killer Rating: 24.7) or Ole Miss Rebels (Giant Killer Rating: 15.6) vs. No. 6 Xavier Musketeers (Giant Rating: 62.2)
Upset chance: 51 percent for BYU; 39 percent for Mississippi
The one matchup in the West where it's worth abandoning chalk is actually the easiest to explain. Xavier is a fine team, but they're not outstanding in the areas that help keep Giants safe against Killers. They're only average on the offensive boards and at forcing turnovers (ranking 158th in each category), and as a further warning sign, they are weak at defending the perimeter. That kind of generic Giant loses to Killers, on average, more than twice as often as other types. Moreover, there's just not five seeds' worth of difference between Xavier and BYU, which rank 25th and 26th in our basic power ratings.
And the Cougars do enjoy some standout Killer traits: They hit 3s (shooting 38.5 percent, ranking 29th), and they hit the glass (offensive rebounds on 33.9 percent of missed shots, ranking 88th). Add it all up, and if BYU gets to play Xavier, our model actually favors the Cougars.
No. 11 BYU Cougars (Giant Killer Rating: 24.7) or Ole Miss Rebels (Giant Killer Rating: 15.6) vs. No. 6 Xavier Musketeers (Giant Rating: 62.2)
Upset chance: 51 percent for BYU; 39 percent for Mississippi
The one matchup in the West where it's worth abandoning chalk is actually the easiest to explain. Xavier is a fine team, but they're not outstanding in the areas that help keep Giants safe against Killers. They're only average on the offensive boards and at forcing turnovers (ranking 158th in each category), and as a further warning sign, they are weak at defending the perimeter. That kind of generic Giant loses to Killers, on average, more than twice as often as other types. Moreover, there's just not five seeds' worth of difference between Xavier and BYU, which rank 25th and 26th in our basic power ratings.
And the Cougars do enjoy some standout Killer traits: They hit 3s (shooting 38.5 percent, ranking 29th), and they hit the glass (offensive rebounds on 33.9 percent of missed shots, ranking 88th). Add it all up, and if BYU gets to play Xavier, our model actually favors the Cougars.
