Sagarin Ratings/Projected Point Spreads and Win Out Chance (Updated: 9/27/15)

[ForgottenRebel]

So the new Sagarin ratings have been released and unsurprisingly Ole Miss sits at #1 in the Sagarin ratings. For those who aren't aware, these are the ratings that most heavily influence the betting lines on the games. You can get a fairly accurate idea of what the line for any game will be by subtracting the Sagarin score for one team from the team they are playing and adding or subtracting 2.65 for home field advantage. The following numbers are based on if the game was played next week. Obviously the Sagarin scores for the teams we are playing will change as the season progresses. Our Sagarin rating is currently 95.08.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm <- Sagarin Ratings

If you guys think this stuff is interesting I'll try to update it as the season goes on.

 

[RebofTroy09]

Yes, would like to see it updated weekly if you have time and would want to do it. Very interesting, thanks for posting!

 

[ForgottenRebel]

Yes, would like to see it updated weekly if you have time and would want to do it. Very interesting, thanks for posting!

Thanks. I also did this for all the other teams in the division too with some interesting results if you guys are interested.

 

[RagnarReb]

So the new Sagarin ratings have been released and unsurprisingly Ole Miss sits at #1 in the Sagarin ratings. For those who aren't aware, these are the ratings that most heavily influence the betting lines on the games. You can get a fairly accurate idea of what the line for any game will be by subtracting the Sagarin score for one team from the team they are playing and adding or subtracting 2.65 for home field advantage. The following numbers are based on if the game was played next week. Obviously the Sagarin scores for the teams we are playing will change as the season progresses. Our Sagarin rating is currently 95.08.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm <- Sagarin Ratings

If you guys think this stuff is interesting I'll try to update it as the season goes on.

Please do.

 

[ForgottenRebel]

Ole Miss unsurprisingly took a hit in the Sagarin ratings today. We went from a 95.08 to a 92.28. I think this will course correct some as Vanderbilt continues to improve. I expect them to win between 4 and 7 games by the end of the year. Our odds to win out dropped from 28.6% to 17.8%, which is still a very high number in the SEC west. Our win total still projects as 11-1 but by a very, very slim margin (10.513 wins vs. 1.487 losses).

Florida, A&M, and MSU all improved slightly in Sagarin (less than 1.5 points), while Memphis, Auburn, LSU, and Ole Miss all went down in the computers.

Here are the updated projections based on Sagarin.

 

[instaGATOR]

Yep, and the media said that Auburn would win the SEC-C this year.

A copy of those Sagarin projections plus $2.50 will get you a cuppa at Starbucks...

 

[RagnarReb]

Yep, and the media said that Auburn would win the SEC-C this year.

A copy of those Sagarin projections plus $2.50 will get you a cuppa at Starbucks...

Ha you won't get anything at Starbucks for less then a five bill.

 

[ForgottenRebel]

Yep, and the media said that Auburn would win the SEC-C this year.

A copy of those Sagarin projections plus $2.50 will get you a cuppa at Starbucks...

Agreed; but the media's projections about Auburn were based on nothing but Malzahn led hype about Jeremy Johnson as a potential Heisman candidate. While the Sagarin ratings are never going to be 100% accurate, and no computer formula ever will be, they are a tool that has some value in assessing the relative strength of teams. You shouldn't ever take it as gospel but there's still useful information to be derived from it.