Let’s get into a little baseball now that the Rebels have wrapped up fall ball, and the holiday is slowing things down a little bit. I thought about waiting another week, but I don’t want all the information to feel outdated and obsolete by then. It’s no secret Ole Miss needs to be better in general and relative to the increasing power of the SEC. We remain in this era where the league is getting better and better each year, recruiting the best players out of high school, getting more to school than at any point in the past and also snatching up talent from the portal. No one truly knows how good a team has to be in this league from year to year beyond damn good and likely better than the previous year to achieve the same result.
The key thing above all else for Ole Miss is to play better defense this season, and the Rebels are clearly better at catching the baseball. Fall stats showed that, and the roster backs it up. Ole Miss went heavy emphasis on defense, and while I’m not sure how all the personnel will play out, defensive options are abundant. It was the worst defense in the SEC a year ago, and a run saved is equal to a run earned.
A lot of that starts behind the plate. Ole Miss has some depth with Campbell Smithwick, Austin Fawley and Collin Reuter. Fawley, the UK transfer who was injured late in the fall, is borderline elite defensively and really receives, throws and picks it back there. He’s the worst hitter of the three, though he did ok offensively in the fall. If he plays a lot, Ole Miss needs offense at most other spots. Campbell Smithwick is the best bat of the three, and I think he’s one of five players who are basically locks to play every day.
You can argue for a couple other potential spots, too, but I think it’s five for sure as of now. More on that in a second. Smithwick did a good job in the Cape over the summer, and he’s improved into an average SEC defensive catcher. Considering where he started from, it’s not a bad jump. He can hit and give you offense in that spot and the catching shouldn’t be a liability. Reuter is sort of in the middle offensively and defensively. BYU played him at first a decent bit last year because of injury, but I’m not sold he can hit enough to play a different position in the SEC.
My hunch on the five guys who seem like locks to play every day, in no order.
1. Campbell Smithwick – I assume he’s the leader at catcher because of the improvement defensively and the offense, but he could get time at DH or corner outfield if needed. However, if he’s a true possibility at an outfield spot beyond spot duty, they need to get him out there some.
2. Judd Utermark – The X factor of X factors. He’s likely Ole Miss’ best defender at four different positions, and he has the most power potential offensively. He’s changed his swing and his chase rate was way down this fall. It’s fall so I’m reserving judgment but there’s true reason for extreme optimism. He’s an absolute freak athletically and if he puts it together, it’s real, real stuff.
3. Luke Hill – He’s developed into a leader, and I think on a better overall team he’ll perform better. He pressed last year badly. I think he sticks at third base this season.
4. Mitchell Sanford – UNO transfer who started at LSU. I like him to be in right field. He can hit, and there’s a strategy – that we’ll see pays off where Ole Miss went after older really good college players. The hope would be production without some of the baggage. Injury early in his career sort of derailed his path, but he likely transitions well to this league.
5. Isaac Humphrey – He is the clear frontrunner to play centerfield. The Louisville transfer is good out there and does everything pretty well. He’s maybe the best overall portal pickup when it comes to proven and versatility.
Humphrey and Sanford look like they are supposed to look, if that makes sense. Both hit from the left side so curious to see if they try to find another right-handed bat to play the other outfield spot. Overall, I’m interested to see if Illinois transfer Ryan Moerman can be a right-handed option with true offensive upside. There are power numbers in his background, but there’s also swing and miss, and I’m skeptical of high-chase Big Ten guys.
There’s the chance the lack of right-handed options means Reuter gets a few more at-bats than expected. Just thinking out loud on that one.
Owen Paino, the Poughkeepsie, N.Y., freshman, is the highlight of the incoming high school class, and he’s going to play immediately somewhere. He’ll battle Luke Cheng at shortstop and land at second if he’s not at short. He’ll hit and be a good athlete. When you get a kid like him, you play him somewhere.
Cheng is elite defensively, but he didn’t hit much at Illinois State, and I don’t think he’s hitting much here. Can you put him and Fawley in a lineup together? Can you play Cheng every day? I don’t know. I guess we’ll find out. I know they want to give a lot of other guys some at-bats, like Brayden Randle, so we can watch it all shake out, but Paino is the certainty somewhere. Cheng needs to do something offensively despite the glove, in my opinion. The glove is very, very good though.
Will Furniss is a wild card for me. I think he has a lot of value down the order in the bottom half where he’d see more fastballs and get more hittable opportunities. I don’t think you can survive with him in the meat of the order. And are you using a first base spot down the order, but with the projected lineup or sort of lineup, it might make sense and have value. This will be one of Mike’s more difficult decisions with what to do and where to slot him if he’s consistently in there.
Again… it’s fall. Take everything with a grain of salt. For every Jacob Gonzalez who from the moment he stepped on campus, there are 10 examples of guys who hit in the fall but didn’t in the spring or guys who were bad fall players but excelled come spring – see DeLucia, Dylan.
The offense has pieces I like. I think it’s a balanced group which is important. But it’s a group that lost its best hitter in Andrew Fischer (sounds like he’s going to play first for UT) and is completely retooled. The team is going to have to pitch and play defense. I do legitimately believe the latter is going to be a big positive.
As for the pitching, we’ll talk about that tomorrow.
(Note… I know I didn’t talk about every player. I like Hayden Federico down the road. People love Ethan Surowiec. But I’m being careful with sweeping observations on any freshmen outside of Paino)
The key thing above all else for Ole Miss is to play better defense this season, and the Rebels are clearly better at catching the baseball. Fall stats showed that, and the roster backs it up. Ole Miss went heavy emphasis on defense, and while I’m not sure how all the personnel will play out, defensive options are abundant. It was the worst defense in the SEC a year ago, and a run saved is equal to a run earned.
A lot of that starts behind the plate. Ole Miss has some depth with Campbell Smithwick, Austin Fawley and Collin Reuter. Fawley, the UK transfer who was injured late in the fall, is borderline elite defensively and really receives, throws and picks it back there. He’s the worst hitter of the three, though he did ok offensively in the fall. If he plays a lot, Ole Miss needs offense at most other spots. Campbell Smithwick is the best bat of the three, and I think he’s one of five players who are basically locks to play every day.
You can argue for a couple other potential spots, too, but I think it’s five for sure as of now. More on that in a second. Smithwick did a good job in the Cape over the summer, and he’s improved into an average SEC defensive catcher. Considering where he started from, it’s not a bad jump. He can hit and give you offense in that spot and the catching shouldn’t be a liability. Reuter is sort of in the middle offensively and defensively. BYU played him at first a decent bit last year because of injury, but I’m not sold he can hit enough to play a different position in the SEC.
My hunch on the five guys who seem like locks to play every day, in no order.
1. Campbell Smithwick – I assume he’s the leader at catcher because of the improvement defensively and the offense, but he could get time at DH or corner outfield if needed. However, if he’s a true possibility at an outfield spot beyond spot duty, they need to get him out there some.
2. Judd Utermark – The X factor of X factors. He’s likely Ole Miss’ best defender at four different positions, and he has the most power potential offensively. He’s changed his swing and his chase rate was way down this fall. It’s fall so I’m reserving judgment but there’s true reason for extreme optimism. He’s an absolute freak athletically and if he puts it together, it’s real, real stuff.
3. Luke Hill – He’s developed into a leader, and I think on a better overall team he’ll perform better. He pressed last year badly. I think he sticks at third base this season.
4. Mitchell Sanford – UNO transfer who started at LSU. I like him to be in right field. He can hit, and there’s a strategy – that we’ll see pays off where Ole Miss went after older really good college players. The hope would be production without some of the baggage. Injury early in his career sort of derailed his path, but he likely transitions well to this league.
5. Isaac Humphrey – He is the clear frontrunner to play centerfield. The Louisville transfer is good out there and does everything pretty well. He’s maybe the best overall portal pickup when it comes to proven and versatility.
Humphrey and Sanford look like they are supposed to look, if that makes sense. Both hit from the left side so curious to see if they try to find another right-handed bat to play the other outfield spot. Overall, I’m interested to see if Illinois transfer Ryan Moerman can be a right-handed option with true offensive upside. There are power numbers in his background, but there’s also swing and miss, and I’m skeptical of high-chase Big Ten guys.
There’s the chance the lack of right-handed options means Reuter gets a few more at-bats than expected. Just thinking out loud on that one.
Owen Paino, the Poughkeepsie, N.Y., freshman, is the highlight of the incoming high school class, and he’s going to play immediately somewhere. He’ll battle Luke Cheng at shortstop and land at second if he’s not at short. He’ll hit and be a good athlete. When you get a kid like him, you play him somewhere.
Cheng is elite defensively, but he didn’t hit much at Illinois State, and I don’t think he’s hitting much here. Can you put him and Fawley in a lineup together? Can you play Cheng every day? I don’t know. I guess we’ll find out. I know they want to give a lot of other guys some at-bats, like Brayden Randle, so we can watch it all shake out, but Paino is the certainty somewhere. Cheng needs to do something offensively despite the glove, in my opinion. The glove is very, very good though.
Will Furniss is a wild card for me. I think he has a lot of value down the order in the bottom half where he’d see more fastballs and get more hittable opportunities. I don’t think you can survive with him in the meat of the order. And are you using a first base spot down the order, but with the projected lineup or sort of lineup, it might make sense and have value. This will be one of Mike’s more difficult decisions with what to do and where to slot him if he’s consistently in there.
Again… it’s fall. Take everything with a grain of salt. For every Jacob Gonzalez who from the moment he stepped on campus, there are 10 examples of guys who hit in the fall but didn’t in the spring or guys who were bad fall players but excelled come spring – see DeLucia, Dylan.
The offense has pieces I like. I think it’s a balanced group which is important. But it’s a group that lost its best hitter in Andrew Fischer (sounds like he’s going to play first for UT) and is completely retooled. The team is going to have to pitch and play defense. I do legitimately believe the latter is going to be a big positive.
As for the pitching, we’ll talk about that tomorrow.
(Note… I know I didn’t talk about every player. I like Hayden Federico down the road. People love Ethan Surowiec. But I’m being careful with sweeping observations on any freshmen outside of Paino)
