As you see elsewhere on the message board and on the front page, I talked to several scouts about five of the Ole Miss juniors for the main question in my mailbag this week. While I had their attention, I asked about Ole Miss football signee and Jackson Prep product Jerrion Ealy, who is nearing his final decision time as it pertains to professional baseball.
First, here are Ealy's potential options:
1. Sign with a professional baseball team and bypass college entirely, ending his amateur baseball career and deciding against Ole Miss football.
2. Sign with a professional baseball team, ending his amateur baseball career, but getting the club to agree to let him continue his amateur football career for all or some of his years of college eligibility.
3. Turn down professional baseball offers and attempt to play both sports at Ole Miss for at least the next three seasons.
Ealy has said all the right things and doesn't seem to be searching for a discounted rate to give up one or both of the sports in college. He hasn't tipped his hand much, and that's smart considering he doesn't know what the signing offer is yet. He won't know that until the Draft next month.
Maybe even six months ago Ealy was listed as a first round pick and a player who could command multiple millions in a signing bonus this summer. One of the fastest players in the class, Ealy has a ton of raw ability and does some flashy things. The athleticism can't be debated. But since the high-water mark when Baseball America listed Ealy in the top 15 of one of its initial mock drafts, the two-sport star has plummeted.
MLB.com had Ealy at No. 77 recently, and the scouts I spoke with thought that was too high at this point. You'll get tired of me saying this, but it just takes one team. My goal is to lay out an overall picture, but 29 teams can hate a guy and the other team still grab him way above expected slot.
I was told this week there were no scouts at a recent Jackson Prep game. That's a tangible sign of Ealy's tumble because thias is the part of the year when teams are making final checks and certainly keeping tabs on options in the first couple rounds.
So why is this happening? I asked and here's what they said.
1. The Kyler Murray Effect
The A's took Murray in the top 10 overall last year and paid him more than $4 million. They agreed to let him play a year of football, and that backfired with Murray leaving baseball behind and eventually being the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft. It's made teams skeptical of two-sport players in the top rounds, and Ealy's football position at running back adds extra risk because of potential injury. It's why I don't think option No. 2 above is a likely result. Teams would heavily discount Ealy's bonus to play college football, and unless he comes off his number, that won't be enough.
One scout told me: "Kyler wasn't in my area, but I imagine Jerrion, while not as good, is what he looked like. He reminds you of him and that's not a good thing right now."
2. His Play This Spring
Relative to a first round or top 75 pick, Ealy hasn't popped off the page at Prep this season. One scout called his hit tool "crude" and said he looks like more of a project than maybe once thought. Teams wanted to see a little extra refinement during his final prep season, and some have noted even a little regression compared to past years. While teams draft based on upside and ceilings, it's another negative and a bigger deal when paired with these other points around it.
3. His Comparisons -- Fairly or Unfairly
This isn't fair because all these are different people with different desires and motivations and work ethics, but Mississippi is known in Draft circles for athletic outfielders who aren't polished when drafted. There's also a negative given, when it comes to the Draft, to football players who play baseball instead of baseball players who play football. It seems like the same thing, but scouts convince themselves of one or the other.
I mentioned to one yesterday that maybe Ealy is Anthony Alford instead of Senquez Golson or DJ Davis. But a lot of teams have decided Alford was a baseball player who played football and Ealy is a football player who plays baseball. I think this is related to the Murray part above, but it also has to do with Mississippi not batting a high percentage with high-upside outfield prospects panning out in professional baseball. Mississippi needs Joe Gray to make it. He was hit by some of this last season, as he was the No. 3 player in the class at one point and ended up taking a discount as the 60th overall pick. While not an outfielder, Bobby Bradley could help here, as well. As maybe could Walker Robbins.
MLB has also become more of a power game, so Ealy's best tool -- speed -- isn't as high value as it would have been a decade ago. It feels like at least some teams are finding reasons to avoid him at the moment.
Some teams have taken Ealy off their boards completely in the top rounds. Others are willing to call him and ask if a discounted rate could snag him at certain points. And maybe there's a team giggling at all the negative and is ready to pounce for previous market value. It's impossible to know that, but every scout I've spoken with expects him to a) play college football b) struggle with college baseball for at least a season.
Also, remember, the Draft isn't in a vacuum. Every pick affects every other pick, so things could get odd in either direction once names start getting called. That's where things stand today. Obviously we'll keep asking and analyzing until the Draft gets here.
First, here are Ealy's potential options:
1. Sign with a professional baseball team and bypass college entirely, ending his amateur baseball career and deciding against Ole Miss football.
2. Sign with a professional baseball team, ending his amateur baseball career, but getting the club to agree to let him continue his amateur football career for all or some of his years of college eligibility.
3. Turn down professional baseball offers and attempt to play both sports at Ole Miss for at least the next three seasons.
Ealy has said all the right things and doesn't seem to be searching for a discounted rate to give up one or both of the sports in college. He hasn't tipped his hand much, and that's smart considering he doesn't know what the signing offer is yet. He won't know that until the Draft next month.
Maybe even six months ago Ealy was listed as a first round pick and a player who could command multiple millions in a signing bonus this summer. One of the fastest players in the class, Ealy has a ton of raw ability and does some flashy things. The athleticism can't be debated. But since the high-water mark when Baseball America listed Ealy in the top 15 of one of its initial mock drafts, the two-sport star has plummeted.
MLB.com had Ealy at No. 77 recently, and the scouts I spoke with thought that was too high at this point. You'll get tired of me saying this, but it just takes one team. My goal is to lay out an overall picture, but 29 teams can hate a guy and the other team still grab him way above expected slot.
I was told this week there were no scouts at a recent Jackson Prep game. That's a tangible sign of Ealy's tumble because thias is the part of the year when teams are making final checks and certainly keeping tabs on options in the first couple rounds.
So why is this happening? I asked and here's what they said.
1. The Kyler Murray Effect
The A's took Murray in the top 10 overall last year and paid him more than $4 million. They agreed to let him play a year of football, and that backfired with Murray leaving baseball behind and eventually being the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft. It's made teams skeptical of two-sport players in the top rounds, and Ealy's football position at running back adds extra risk because of potential injury. It's why I don't think option No. 2 above is a likely result. Teams would heavily discount Ealy's bonus to play college football, and unless he comes off his number, that won't be enough.
One scout told me: "Kyler wasn't in my area, but I imagine Jerrion, while not as good, is what he looked like. He reminds you of him and that's not a good thing right now."
2. His Play This Spring
Relative to a first round or top 75 pick, Ealy hasn't popped off the page at Prep this season. One scout called his hit tool "crude" and said he looks like more of a project than maybe once thought. Teams wanted to see a little extra refinement during his final prep season, and some have noted even a little regression compared to past years. While teams draft based on upside and ceilings, it's another negative and a bigger deal when paired with these other points around it.
3. His Comparisons -- Fairly or Unfairly
This isn't fair because all these are different people with different desires and motivations and work ethics, but Mississippi is known in Draft circles for athletic outfielders who aren't polished when drafted. There's also a negative given, when it comes to the Draft, to football players who play baseball instead of baseball players who play football. It seems like the same thing, but scouts convince themselves of one or the other.
I mentioned to one yesterday that maybe Ealy is Anthony Alford instead of Senquez Golson or DJ Davis. But a lot of teams have decided Alford was a baseball player who played football and Ealy is a football player who plays baseball. I think this is related to the Murray part above, but it also has to do with Mississippi not batting a high percentage with high-upside outfield prospects panning out in professional baseball. Mississippi needs Joe Gray to make it. He was hit by some of this last season, as he was the No. 3 player in the class at one point and ended up taking a discount as the 60th overall pick. While not an outfielder, Bobby Bradley could help here, as well. As maybe could Walker Robbins.
MLB has also become more of a power game, so Ealy's best tool -- speed -- isn't as high value as it would have been a decade ago. It feels like at least some teams are finding reasons to avoid him at the moment.
Some teams have taken Ealy off their boards completely in the top rounds. Others are willing to call him and ask if a discounted rate could snag him at certain points. And maybe there's a team giggling at all the negative and is ready to pounce for previous market value. It's impossible to know that, but every scout I've spoken with expects him to a) play college football b) struggle with college baseball for at least a season.
Also, remember, the Draft isn't in a vacuum. Every pick affects every other pick, so things could get odd in either direction once names start getting called. That's where things stand today. Obviously we'll keep asking and analyzing until the Draft gets here.
