Below is what a national title team looks like from a recruiting standpoint. Obviously, coaching, development, health, & luck are vital to building a championship team, but I think it's pretty safe to say that recruiting is the single more important aspect of winning championships in college football. "Stars" absolutely matter.
NATIONAL TITLE WINNERS (2005 - 2015):
Aggregate Average Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Best Recruiting Class: 1
Worst Recruiting Class: 22
Texas (2005)
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 18th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2002 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 14th
Florida (2006)
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
LSU (2007)
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 22nd
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 9th
Florida (2008)
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
Alabama (2009)
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
Auburn (2010)
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 19th
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 13th
Alabama (2011)
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 2nd
Alabama (2012)
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 2nd
Florida State (2013)
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Ohio State (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
NATIONAL TITLE RUNNER UP (2005 - 2015):
Aggregate Average Recruiting Class Rank: 11th
Best Recruiting Class: 1
Worst Recruiting Class: 40
USC (2005)
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2002 Recruiting Class Rank - 13th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
Ohio State (2006)
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 40th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 20th
Ohio State (2007)
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 14th
Oklahoma (2008)
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 9th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 8th
Texas (2009)
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Oregon (2010)
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 13th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 32nd
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 19th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 19th
LSU (2011)
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
Notre Dame (2012)
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 21st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 16th
Auburn (2013)
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 8th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Oregon (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 26th
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 22nd
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 9th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 18th
Alabama (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 1st
Florida State (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
So basically, if don't field a team full of top 10 to 15 recruiting classes, 10 years of data says you aren't going to win a national title. As you may have noticed, every national title winner from 2005-2015 fielded a team with at least 2 top 10 classes and zero classes outside the top 25. Every national title runner up from 2005-2015, include the two additional playoff participants from 2015 fielded a team with at least 2 classes in the top 15 with only 3 outside the top 25.
So although we are disappointed in how the season has gone thus far, the data says we weren't a national championship caliber team anyway. Then, if you had injuries to the mix, it just makes it that much more difficult. The aggregate average recruiting class that we're fielding this year is 22nd, which 10 years of data says isn't good enough to win a championship.
NATIONAL TITLE WINNERS (2005 - 2015):
Aggregate Average Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Best Recruiting Class: 1
Worst Recruiting Class: 22
Texas (2005)
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 18th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2002 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 14th
Florida (2006)
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
LSU (2007)
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 22nd
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 9th
Florida (2008)
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
Alabama (2009)
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
Auburn (2010)
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 19th
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 13th
Alabama (2011)
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 2nd
Alabama (2012)
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 2nd
Florida State (2013)
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Ohio State (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
NATIONAL TITLE RUNNER UP (2005 - 2015):
Aggregate Average Recruiting Class Rank: 11th
Best Recruiting Class: 1
Worst Recruiting Class: 40
USC (2005)
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
2002 Recruiting Class Rank - 13th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 5th
Ohio State (2006)
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
2003 Recruiting Class Rank - 40th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 20th
Ohio State (2007)
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 15th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 12th
2004 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 14th
Oklahoma (2008)
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 9th
2005 Recruiting Class Rank - 3rd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 8th
Texas (2009)
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
2006 Recruiting Class Rank - 5th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Oregon (2010)
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 13th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 32nd
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 19th
2007 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 19th
LSU (2011)
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
2008 Recruiting Class Rank - 11th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
Notre Dame (2012)
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 20th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 14th
2009 Recruiting Class Rank - 21st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 16th
Auburn (2013)
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 8th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 7th
2010 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 7th
Oregon (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 26th
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 22nd
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 16th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 9th
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 18th
Alabama (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 1st
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 1st
Florida State (2014)
2014 Recruiting Class Rank - 4th
2013 Recruiting Class Rank - 10th
2012 Recruiting Class Rank - 6th
2011 Recruiting Class Rank - 2nd
Avg Recruiting Class Rank: 6th
So basically, if don't field a team full of top 10 to 15 recruiting classes, 10 years of data says you aren't going to win a national title. As you may have noticed, every national title winner from 2005-2015 fielded a team with at least 2 top 10 classes and zero classes outside the top 25. Every national title runner up from 2005-2015, include the two additional playoff participants from 2015 fielded a team with at least 2 classes in the top 15 with only 3 outside the top 25.
So although we are disappointed in how the season has gone thus far, the data says we weren't a national championship caliber team anyway. Then, if you had injuries to the mix, it just makes it that much more difficult. The aggregate average recruiting class that we're fielding this year is 22nd, which 10 years of data says isn't good enough to win a championship.
