The MLB First Year Player Draft begins tonight around 6 p.m. and will go through the second round. Rounds 3-10 are tomorrow and then rounds 11-40 are on Wednesday.
Remember these are the Draft rules for compensation.
Every pick from rounds 1 to 10 has an assigned slot value, which collectively make up a team’s total allocation of funds for the draft. Teams may spend more on one player and less on another, but that’s essentially their total pot. In addition to that, players after the 10th round are subject to this constraint as well. If they sign for more than $100,000 then the difference is deducted from the pool.
The penalties for overages can be stringent. If they are within zero to five percent of their pool, the penalty is limited to a 75 percent tax on their overage. Between 5 and 10 percent results in said tax plus the loss of a first round pick the following year. When you get to between 10 and 15 percent, the tax is bumped to 100 percent and the team must forfeit an additional second round pick from the subsequent year. If they manage to exceed it by more than 15 percent, the team must pay the aforementioned tax and loses their next two first rounders.
Make sense? Basically there’s a budget for the top 10 rounds, and teams can be creative within that budget. The easiest way to do that is sign seniors with no leverage in the latter parts of the first 10 rounds so it saves money elsewhere. I’ll show you below why that’s relevant to the discussion today.
I’ve talked to a lot of people as I always do, and here are my best guesses for how the Draft will hit Ole Miss this season. Two years ago the Rebels came out in great shape, and that led to the No. 1 class in the country and the team you’ll see on the field at noon today. Last year they lost two high quality arms but Jordan Fowler made it to campus.
Ryan Rolison, sophomore, left-handed pitcher
There’s a great chance Rolison becomes Ole Miss’ second-ever first round pick tonight — joining Drew Pomeranz who was taken fifth overall in 2010. The Rebels have also had three supplemental first round picks — Michael Rosamond, Lance Lynn and Chris Coghlan.
Rolison was the Cape pitcher of the year last summer, showing excellent fastball command, especially to the glove side. He hasn’t been consistent with that this spring, but he’s been huge in key moments and has improved as the season has gone on. Teams think he’s a mid-to-back-end rotation pitcher, and he’s expected to go off the board in the teens or 20s tonights. I’ve seen him as high as No. 12 and as low as No. 29. The slot value for No. 12 is $4.2 million, and the value at 29 is $2.3 million.
Joe Gray, outfielder, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Gray has been a person of interest since he committed to Ole Miss and has been as high as No. 2 in Perfect Game’s class rankings. Profiled as a high school version of Adam Jones, Gray has great power, a good arm, great instincts and jumps and good enough speed to stick in center field. There’s some swing and miss, and he’s right-handed without elite speed, but he would be expected to play immediately and excel eventually at the college game.
Scott Boras is Gray’s agent (adviser, but I hate the fact that this has to be clandestine), meaning this is a no-bargain zone. Gray has a big number, and he’s shown every sign that he’s sticking to it. If that’s the case, then the odds are very good that he will be in Oxford. He will have to turn down big offers over the phone today for it to happen, but everyone I talked to expects him to do that. We’ll see in a few hours.
Also, remember, about that slot situation. If a team drafts a player in the second round and doesn’t sign him, they lose that slot amount from their budget. So if a player is drafted in the first five rounds for sure or maybe longer, it means he’s already agreed to a number. Teams can’t afford to lose money from their pools.
Gunnar Hoglund, right-handed pitcher, Hudson, Florida
I profiled Hoglund about a month ago, as he didn’t walk a batter and had only six three-ball counts during his regular season. This is the tough luck one for Ole Miss because Carl Lafferty did an excellent scouting job to land Hoglund, but there’s been a ton of helium with him in recent months, and he’s likely to join a list of blow-up-after-committed arms that have bypassed Ole Miss.
I give it an 80 percent chance Hoglund signs professionally this month. A slide is possible because every team doesn’t love him, but it just takes one, and some have him targeted to come off the board in that 40-55 range that would sign him for about a million and a half. If he falls past that, then there’s a shot, but I’m not hearing much optimism when it comes to his college chances.
Kaleb Hill, left-handed pitcher, Pine Bluff, Arkansas
I expect the rest of the signing class to show up, but Hill is worth mentioning because teams like him a good bit. He has a good 6-foot-4 frame and throws with his left hand. If Hill wants $500,000 then he’s gone, but he’s asking for seven figures, and I don’t see that as the likely scenario. Name to keep an eye on, but not a name to stress about at this point. Will be a really good college pitcher if he is on campus.
Zack Phillips, left-handed pitcher, Grayson College
A caveat: junior college players are weird sometimes. They go when they shouldn’t more often than high school players. Not saying that’s Phillips. Just a general rule. He’s similar to Hill. If he wants $300,000 then he will get it. But he’s also asking for seven figures. I like this guy. Has some feel with three pitches. I think he’s an important one to get to campus for next season.
Nick Fortes, junior, catcher
I hope Fortes gets the due he deserves for his season and career at Ole Miss. He came in as the highest rated signee in the 2015 class and was quickly overshadowed in 2016. He’s been a savior this season as Ole Miss’ most consistent bat and a great receiver at catcher. Fortes is probably looking at third to fifth round in early day two, and most teams want to try to stick him at catcher. There’s a track record for SEC accomplished catchers to get a lot of rope to stick, and Fortes fits that mold. He’s graduated in three years, and I expect him to sign. Congrats to him. He’s a joy to cover.
Brady Feigl, junior, right-handed pitcher
Feigl is looking at that same ballpark as far as round with the possibility that it’s a tough later. The makeup is excellent, the fastball would play up out of the pen, and the slider can be a plus pitch at the next level. He’s the most polite player on the team and has been nails for Ole Miss this season, especially at home.
James McArthur, junior, right-handed pitcher
McArthur, who is throwing at noon today, is also expected to sign, making Ole Miss replace its entire rotation next season. He’s the first one where the round he gets drafted could play into that scenario I mentioned earlier. McArthur is looking likely at 7th-to-12th round with the money being the same either way. Either he’s taken around slot or just above in the top 10 rounds, or he’s taken early teens and given extra money that teams saved by signing seniors in the top 10 rounds. Clubs target specific players in each round to overpay with saved pool money.
Example: I sign John Senior in the eighth round with slot value of $200,000 but since he has no leverage I pay him $5,000 (yes that low). I saved $195,000 to pay someone else. Suddenly I can take McArthur in the 12th round and pay him $295,000 while staying on budget.
McArthur’s long frame has consistency issues, but teams think they can make that work. A couple hundred grand is a slow price to pay for a potentially big upside. A gamble worth taking.
Ryan Olenek, junior, utility
I don’t have a great read here but I lean toward Olenek signing after getting taken very early on day three — somewhere in the low teens. He is also a candidate for better money in that scenario I mentioned, but most clubs aren’t as high on him as McArthur. There’s not a life-changing bonus coming his way, but he can’t really improve his stock either, and if he comes back he’s only getting a Snicker’s Bar after next season to sign. I’m not sure where a team will try to play him, but they will move him around and look for a place after not spending much to get him in the system.
Parker Caracci, sophomore, right-handed pitcher
Caracci wants to come back to school. He’s already told people he’s coming back, and he’s supposed to be Thomas Dillard’s roommate next year. He’s right-handed and he’s 92 MPH much more than he’s 96, so prospect-wise things are limited. He can get drafted if he wants to be drafted, and he’s worth a day-three shot in the dark, but I’ll be surprised if he signs. I think he’s back as the Ole Miss closer in 2019. Great kid, sad but inspiring story, would be fun to cover another season.
I think Will Stokes and Will Golsan are day-three picks as seniors, and both are candidates to be in that save-money scenario of the final rounds of the top 10 rounds, as well. Also, my guess is Chase Cockrell doesn’t get drafted. He doesn’t have a position, and while the power is plenty good enough, the overall approach and profile doesn’t match up with the rest of his game in an intriguing way for scouts. Like I said, it only takes one team, but that’s what I’m hearing right now.
Remember these are the Draft rules for compensation.
Every pick from rounds 1 to 10 has an assigned slot value, which collectively make up a team’s total allocation of funds for the draft. Teams may spend more on one player and less on another, but that’s essentially their total pot. In addition to that, players after the 10th round are subject to this constraint as well. If they sign for more than $100,000 then the difference is deducted from the pool.
The penalties for overages can be stringent. If they are within zero to five percent of their pool, the penalty is limited to a 75 percent tax on their overage. Between 5 and 10 percent results in said tax plus the loss of a first round pick the following year. When you get to between 10 and 15 percent, the tax is bumped to 100 percent and the team must forfeit an additional second round pick from the subsequent year. If they manage to exceed it by more than 15 percent, the team must pay the aforementioned tax and loses their next two first rounders.
Make sense? Basically there’s a budget for the top 10 rounds, and teams can be creative within that budget. The easiest way to do that is sign seniors with no leverage in the latter parts of the first 10 rounds so it saves money elsewhere. I’ll show you below why that’s relevant to the discussion today.
I’ve talked to a lot of people as I always do, and here are my best guesses for how the Draft will hit Ole Miss this season. Two years ago the Rebels came out in great shape, and that led to the No. 1 class in the country and the team you’ll see on the field at noon today. Last year they lost two high quality arms but Jordan Fowler made it to campus.
Ryan Rolison, sophomore, left-handed pitcher
There’s a great chance Rolison becomes Ole Miss’ second-ever first round pick tonight — joining Drew Pomeranz who was taken fifth overall in 2010. The Rebels have also had three supplemental first round picks — Michael Rosamond, Lance Lynn and Chris Coghlan.
Rolison was the Cape pitcher of the year last summer, showing excellent fastball command, especially to the glove side. He hasn’t been consistent with that this spring, but he’s been huge in key moments and has improved as the season has gone on. Teams think he’s a mid-to-back-end rotation pitcher, and he’s expected to go off the board in the teens or 20s tonights. I’ve seen him as high as No. 12 and as low as No. 29. The slot value for No. 12 is $4.2 million, and the value at 29 is $2.3 million.
Joe Gray, outfielder, Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Gray has been a person of interest since he committed to Ole Miss and has been as high as No. 2 in Perfect Game’s class rankings. Profiled as a high school version of Adam Jones, Gray has great power, a good arm, great instincts and jumps and good enough speed to stick in center field. There’s some swing and miss, and he’s right-handed without elite speed, but he would be expected to play immediately and excel eventually at the college game.
Scott Boras is Gray’s agent (adviser, but I hate the fact that this has to be clandestine), meaning this is a no-bargain zone. Gray has a big number, and he’s shown every sign that he’s sticking to it. If that’s the case, then the odds are very good that he will be in Oxford. He will have to turn down big offers over the phone today for it to happen, but everyone I talked to expects him to do that. We’ll see in a few hours.
Also, remember, about that slot situation. If a team drafts a player in the second round and doesn’t sign him, they lose that slot amount from their budget. So if a player is drafted in the first five rounds for sure or maybe longer, it means he’s already agreed to a number. Teams can’t afford to lose money from their pools.
Gunnar Hoglund, right-handed pitcher, Hudson, Florida
I profiled Hoglund about a month ago, as he didn’t walk a batter and had only six three-ball counts during his regular season. This is the tough luck one for Ole Miss because Carl Lafferty did an excellent scouting job to land Hoglund, but there’s been a ton of helium with him in recent months, and he’s likely to join a list of blow-up-after-committed arms that have bypassed Ole Miss.
I give it an 80 percent chance Hoglund signs professionally this month. A slide is possible because every team doesn’t love him, but it just takes one, and some have him targeted to come off the board in that 40-55 range that would sign him for about a million and a half. If he falls past that, then there’s a shot, but I’m not hearing much optimism when it comes to his college chances.
Kaleb Hill, left-handed pitcher, Pine Bluff, Arkansas
I expect the rest of the signing class to show up, but Hill is worth mentioning because teams like him a good bit. He has a good 6-foot-4 frame and throws with his left hand. If Hill wants $500,000 then he’s gone, but he’s asking for seven figures, and I don’t see that as the likely scenario. Name to keep an eye on, but not a name to stress about at this point. Will be a really good college pitcher if he is on campus.
Zack Phillips, left-handed pitcher, Grayson College
A caveat: junior college players are weird sometimes. They go when they shouldn’t more often than high school players. Not saying that’s Phillips. Just a general rule. He’s similar to Hill. If he wants $300,000 then he will get it. But he’s also asking for seven figures. I like this guy. Has some feel with three pitches. I think he’s an important one to get to campus for next season.
Nick Fortes, junior, catcher
I hope Fortes gets the due he deserves for his season and career at Ole Miss. He came in as the highest rated signee in the 2015 class and was quickly overshadowed in 2016. He’s been a savior this season as Ole Miss’ most consistent bat and a great receiver at catcher. Fortes is probably looking at third to fifth round in early day two, and most teams want to try to stick him at catcher. There’s a track record for SEC accomplished catchers to get a lot of rope to stick, and Fortes fits that mold. He’s graduated in three years, and I expect him to sign. Congrats to him. He’s a joy to cover.
Brady Feigl, junior, right-handed pitcher
Feigl is looking at that same ballpark as far as round with the possibility that it’s a tough later. The makeup is excellent, the fastball would play up out of the pen, and the slider can be a plus pitch at the next level. He’s the most polite player on the team and has been nails for Ole Miss this season, especially at home.
James McArthur, junior, right-handed pitcher
McArthur, who is throwing at noon today, is also expected to sign, making Ole Miss replace its entire rotation next season. He’s the first one where the round he gets drafted could play into that scenario I mentioned earlier. McArthur is looking likely at 7th-to-12th round with the money being the same either way. Either he’s taken around slot or just above in the top 10 rounds, or he’s taken early teens and given extra money that teams saved by signing seniors in the top 10 rounds. Clubs target specific players in each round to overpay with saved pool money.
Example: I sign John Senior in the eighth round with slot value of $200,000 but since he has no leverage I pay him $5,000 (yes that low). I saved $195,000 to pay someone else. Suddenly I can take McArthur in the 12th round and pay him $295,000 while staying on budget.
McArthur’s long frame has consistency issues, but teams think they can make that work. A couple hundred grand is a slow price to pay for a potentially big upside. A gamble worth taking.
Ryan Olenek, junior, utility
I don’t have a great read here but I lean toward Olenek signing after getting taken very early on day three — somewhere in the low teens. He is also a candidate for better money in that scenario I mentioned, but most clubs aren’t as high on him as McArthur. There’s not a life-changing bonus coming his way, but he can’t really improve his stock either, and if he comes back he’s only getting a Snicker’s Bar after next season to sign. I’m not sure where a team will try to play him, but they will move him around and look for a place after not spending much to get him in the system.
Parker Caracci, sophomore, right-handed pitcher
Caracci wants to come back to school. He’s already told people he’s coming back, and he’s supposed to be Thomas Dillard’s roommate next year. He’s right-handed and he’s 92 MPH much more than he’s 96, so prospect-wise things are limited. He can get drafted if he wants to be drafted, and he’s worth a day-three shot in the dark, but I’ll be surprised if he signs. I think he’s back as the Ole Miss closer in 2019. Great kid, sad but inspiring story, would be fun to cover another season.
I think Will Stokes and Will Golsan are day-three picks as seniors, and both are candidates to be in that save-money scenario of the final rounds of the top 10 rounds, as well. Also, my guess is Chase Cockrell doesn’t get drafted. He doesn’t have a position, and while the power is plenty good enough, the overall approach and profile doesn’t match up with the rest of his game in an intriguing way for scouts. Like I said, it only takes one team, but that’s what I’m hearing right now.
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