Worth reading Bills side bar on Ole Miss here:
Excerpt here:
“
I should probably note one team whose rating really didn't fall at all: Ole Miss. The Rebels suffered their third loss of the season Saturday against Florida, but they are still at No. 2. How? For starters, their blowouts of South Carolina and Georgia (relatively speaking) continue to look pretty awesome on paper, and the fact that they comfortably handled the Oklahoma team that just TKO'd Alabama helps, too.
But they were also the statistically superior team Saturday in Gainesville, producing a dramatically higher success rate (48% to 33%) and creating more red zone chances (three to two). It took a pretty unique combination of poor luck in turnovers and poor finishing in the red zone for them to lose that game; in fact, my postgame win expectancy measure -- which takes all of the key predictive stats produced in a given game and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- says Ole Miss would have won this game 74% of the time by an average of 5.1 points.
With other top teams also disappointing to some degree, the Rebels' rating didn't really change despite the loss. Three losses by a combined 13 points might keep them out of the CFP, but that doesn't mean they're not an awesome team.”
Not that this is surprising to those watching yesterday with their eyes, but still wild to have these numbers to it.
Excerpt here:
“
I should probably note one team whose rating really didn't fall at all: Ole Miss. The Rebels suffered their third loss of the season Saturday against Florida, but they are still at No. 2. How? For starters, their blowouts of South Carolina and Georgia (relatively speaking) continue to look pretty awesome on paper, and the fact that they comfortably handled the Oklahoma team that just TKO'd Alabama helps, too.
But they were also the statistically superior team Saturday in Gainesville, producing a dramatically higher success rate (48% to 33%) and creating more red zone chances (three to two). It took a pretty unique combination of poor luck in turnovers and poor finishing in the red zone for them to lose that game; in fact, my postgame win expectancy measure -- which takes all of the key predictive stats produced in a given game and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- says Ole Miss would have won this game 74% of the time by an average of 5.1 points.
With other top teams also disappointing to some degree, the Rebels' rating didn't really change despite the loss. Three losses by a combined 13 points might keep them out of the CFP, but that doesn't mean they're not an awesome team.”
Not that this is surprising to those watching yesterday with their eyes, but still wild to have these numbers to it.
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