Symptom Surveillance
No heat map this week. Looks good. National peak was around New Years Day.
Testing Data
~2.0 million tests is the 7 day average. 1 week ago it was 1.9 million.
~209k positives is the 7 day moving average with % positive at ~10.2%. 1 week ago this was 244k/12.6%. My numbers last week in this section were a bit different, I corrected them. Apologize for the error.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 130k--> 124k (-5%)
ICU.... 23.5--> 23.2k (-1%)
Vent... 7.8k--> 7.7k (-1%)
Looks to be finally turning the corner now and, not coincidentally, at the same time as California.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 390,262 per CTP.
7 day moving average is ~3268
State Data
Mississippi.
Hospitalizations fell quite a bit this week with a precipitous drop today, 1424--> 1249 (-13%) and vents declined about 15% week over week. Probably back up a little tomorrow. Most locations on the live tracker are steady or declining. We should head down to that endemic level mentioned last week. Given the Dec/Jan active season I would still suspect that means a lighter Feb/Mar. Vaccination progress in MS seems to be moving along well. All doses accounted for until the next batch arrives. Not much to say as trends are looking good.
Texas:
13397--> 13858 (+3%)
This is a graphic of service areas and percentage of hospital beds utilized by CV19 patients per day. Guess which one is the Laredo area? I have no idea what is going on there.
Florida.
Hosp: 7650--> 7448 (-3%)
Best state in the union with one of the oldest populations. I'd love to see some age adjusted mortality statistics by state. I would not be shocked if Florida ranked the best in deaths/capita adjusted for age. Per CDC stats, Florida is just barely above epidemic threshold currently in excess deaths. Again, this state has been open for 4 months.
Alabama.
Hosp: 3088--> 2798 (-10%)
Georgia:
Someone mentioned GA being busy. Looks that way but the state may have peaked this past week from a hospitalization perspective. 6064--> 5902 is the week over week change there.
California.
Hosp 22663--> 20968 (-8%)
Looking better finally.
Comments:
1. Don't forget about the antibody infusions.
2. Ummmm... coming soon to a city near you? https://nypost.com/2021/01/18/german-quarantine-breakers-to-be-held-in-refugee-camps/
"Germans who repeatedly refuse to quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 will be held in detention centers — and even under police guard, according to reports."
A reminder here: The 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines DO NOT recommend quarantine of exposed individuals. Science! The Germans are building camps again... I thought it was just wait two weeks?
3. Israeli serology study showing that indeed you cannot transmit after 2nd dose of vaccination given the presence of high antibody titers. Who'd have thunk? Antibodies increase 6-20 times after 2nd Pfizer dose.
www.ynetnews.com
4. 2 weeks.. errr, I mean, two years to stop the spread: https://dossier.substack.com/p/two-...mpaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter
5. I'm going to post some vaccine negative articles here. No one get their panties in a bunch. It's just information. There may have been a bad batch to account for some of these issues. Norway has seen over 30 deaths now (33 I think since article was published and that is a rate of 1/1000). California recalled a batch after a lot of allergic reactions. Sweden also has seen an unusually high number of severe adverse events. Articles are below:
www.sfchronicle.com
nyadagbladet.se
nypost.com
"when vaccinating the oldest and sickest, it is expected that deaths will occur in a time-related context with vaccination. This does not mean that there is a causal link between vaccination and death."
Playing devil's advocate here... but when the oldest and sickest die after a positive PCR test, it DOES mean there is a causal link between coronavirus and death? mmmmmk
I know of two severe anaphylaxis reactions. Both did fine. It's the PEG I mentioned in my vaccine review. A lot of people are sensitive to it. I was looking for the publication and can't find it but I read that up to 70% of persons have some sensitivity to that chemical compound. Florian Krammer, a vaxxer and vaccinologist at Mt. Sinai in NY, has recently been seeing severe reactions with the first dose in patients who have already had CV19 that are similar to 2nd dose side effects. He is gathering data on this issue.
6. Don't worry everyone. Lockdowns don't hurt anyone. They're just going to result in around 900,000 extra deaths in the next 15 years... that's all. By the way, this is likely an underestimate. The 2008 financial crisis resulted in an estimated 1.4 million extra deaths. The numbers in both studies do not include extra deaths caused by delayed medical care.
7. Re-posting because it needs to be said again and again. All actions have consequences. https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-124394/v2
Profoundly negative impact of masking indicated by large German registry (n~26K) study of children <1-18yo: irritability (60%), headache (53%), difficulty concentrating (50%), less happiness (49%), reluctance to go to school/kindergarten (44%), malaise (42%) impaired learning (38%) & drowsiness or fatigue (37%).
8. Large study on the "not so new" variant. https://t.co/zd0o6HGeWv?amp=1
*No higher viral load for B 1.1.7 infections
*Comparable frequency in teenagers and older individuals
*Mean ~6% higher growth rate of B 1.1.7 cases relative to other lineages in circulation, with considerable regional and temporal heterogeneity
Seems like a nothingburger
9. Americans get it... err, I mean.. the Swiss. https://news.yahoo.com/switzerland-holding-referendum-whether-strip-145004810.html
"Switzerland will hold a referendum on whether to strip the government of its power to impose new lockdown measures."
10. Buy some Bitcoin. The fed is destroying the value of your dollar.
11. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w
"Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes"
Imagine for one moment we had followed WHO and CDC pandemic guidelines from the outset... Those 1/3 were the truly preventable deaths.
12. I see that prescriptions for Ivermectin in the US are on a parabolic rise.
13. mASkS aNd locKDoWnS work:
www.latimes.com
14. I said this about... oh, 9 months ago. https://t.co/EC4Df2tFs7?amp=1
Mayor Lori Lightfoot says Chicago restaurants and bars need to be allowed to reopen "as quickly as possible" to cut down on instances of private parties where people don't take proper precautions against COVID-19. You cannot make this up.
15. Two masks might be better everyone... double up! Heck, try 3 or 4. Breathing is so overrated. It's not enough unless your lightheaded and about to pass out! https://t.co/eikzwSXVJF?amp=1
16. Been harping on this since... well, forever. T-cells. Now the CDC gets on board... amazing how late they are to every party. https://t.co/c5z5PHlPfr?amp=1
“According to our data in volunteers w/confirmed SARSCoV2 infection—majority of ppl w/undetectable systemic IgG may presumably be protected by specific Tcell immunity which would be good news for control of the pandemic”
17. Gonna be a cold virus... said that too... wild type reversion. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522
"...suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold."
I know I've gotten some things wrong, but I nailed some stuff as well. Credit where it's due and criticism where it's due.
18. This isn't really news since we knew it from the reanalysis done of the infamous Drosten paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249691v1.full.pdf
"data present a clear relation between age & CoV2 viral load, with children (<12 years) showing lower viral loads independent of sex & symptom duration."
Cheers RGers
No heat map this week. Looks good. National peak was around New Years Day.
Testing Data
~2.0 million tests is the 7 day average. 1 week ago it was 1.9 million.
~209k positives is the 7 day moving average with % positive at ~10.2%. 1 week ago this was 244k/12.6%. My numbers last week in this section were a bit different, I corrected them. Apologize for the error.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 130k--> 124k (-5%)
ICU.... 23.5--> 23.2k (-1%)
Vent... 7.8k--> 7.7k (-1%)
Looks to be finally turning the corner now and, not coincidentally, at the same time as California.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 390,262 per CTP.
7 day moving average is ~3268
State Data
Mississippi.
Hospitalizations fell quite a bit this week with a precipitous drop today, 1424--> 1249 (-13%) and vents declined about 15% week over week. Probably back up a little tomorrow. Most locations on the live tracker are steady or declining. We should head down to that endemic level mentioned last week. Given the Dec/Jan active season I would still suspect that means a lighter Feb/Mar. Vaccination progress in MS seems to be moving along well. All doses accounted for until the next batch arrives. Not much to say as trends are looking good.
Texas:
13397--> 13858 (+3%)
This is a graphic of service areas and percentage of hospital beds utilized by CV19 patients per day. Guess which one is the Laredo area? I have no idea what is going on there.
Florida.
Hosp: 7650--> 7448 (-3%)
Best state in the union with one of the oldest populations. I'd love to see some age adjusted mortality statistics by state. I would not be shocked if Florida ranked the best in deaths/capita adjusted for age. Per CDC stats, Florida is just barely above epidemic threshold currently in excess deaths. Again, this state has been open for 4 months.
Alabama.
Hosp: 3088--> 2798 (-10%)
Georgia:
Someone mentioned GA being busy. Looks that way but the state may have peaked this past week from a hospitalization perspective. 6064--> 5902 is the week over week change there.
California.
Hosp 22663--> 20968 (-8%)
Looking better finally.
Comments:
1. Don't forget about the antibody infusions.
2. Ummmm... coming soon to a city near you? https://nypost.com/2021/01/18/german-quarantine-breakers-to-be-held-in-refugee-camps/
"Germans who repeatedly refuse to quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 will be held in detention centers — and even under police guard, according to reports."
A reminder here: The 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines DO NOT recommend quarantine of exposed individuals. Science! The Germans are building camps again... I thought it was just wait two weeks?
3. Israeli serology study showing that indeed you cannot transmit after 2nd dose of vaccination given the presence of high antibody titers. Who'd have thunk? Antibodies increase 6-20 times after 2nd Pfizer dose.
COVID antibodies increase 6-20 times week after 2nd dose of Pfizer shot, study says
Data from 102 subjects shows 98% of them developed significant presence of antibodies; survey's editor says participants most likely won't spread the disease further
4. 2 weeks.. errr, I mean, two years to stop the spread: https://dossier.substack.com/p/two-...mpaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter
5. I'm going to post some vaccine negative articles here. No one get their panties in a bunch. It's just information. There may have been a bad batch to account for some of these issues. Norway has seen over 30 deaths now (33 I think since article was published and that is a rate of 1/1000). California recalled a batch after a lot of allergic reactions. Sweden also has seen an unusually high number of severe adverse events. Articles are below:
California calls for pause in use of huge batch of Moderna vaccines after allergic reactions
The reaction was observed in fewer than 10 people who required medical attention after...
Allvarliga vaccinskador och dödsfall inrapporterade i Sverige
Ansiktsförlamning och allvarliga allergiska reaktioner bland de misstänkta skadorna.
nyadagbladet.se
23 die in Norway after receiving Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: officials
Common reactions to the vaccine, including fever and nausea, “may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients,” Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, sai…
nypost.com
Playing devil's advocate here... but when the oldest and sickest die after a positive PCR test, it DOES mean there is a causal link between coronavirus and death? mmmmmk
I know of two severe anaphylaxis reactions. Both did fine. It's the PEG I mentioned in my vaccine review. A lot of people are sensitive to it. I was looking for the publication and can't find it but I read that up to 70% of persons have some sensitivity to that chemical compound. Florian Krammer, a vaxxer and vaccinologist at Mt. Sinai in NY, has recently been seeing severe reactions with the first dose in patients who have already had CV19 that are similar to 2nd dose side effects. He is gathering data on this issue.
6. Don't worry everyone. Lockdowns don't hurt anyone. They're just going to result in around 900,000 extra deaths in the next 15 years... that's all. By the way, this is likely an underestimate. The 2008 financial crisis resulted in an estimated 1.4 million extra deaths. The numbers in both studies do not include extra deaths caused by delayed medical care.
7. Re-posting because it needs to be said again and again. All actions have consequences. https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-124394/v2
Profoundly negative impact of masking indicated by large German registry (n~26K) study of children <1-18yo: irritability (60%), headache (53%), difficulty concentrating (50%), less happiness (49%), reluctance to go to school/kindergarten (44%), malaise (42%) impaired learning (38%) & drowsiness or fatigue (37%).
8. Large study on the "not so new" variant. https://t.co/zd0o6HGeWv?amp=1
*No higher viral load for B 1.1.7 infections
*Comparable frequency in teenagers and older individuals
*Mean ~6% higher growth rate of B 1.1.7 cases relative to other lineages in circulation, with considerable regional and temporal heterogeneity
Seems like a nothingburger
9. Americans get it... err, I mean.. the Swiss. https://news.yahoo.com/switzerland-holding-referendum-whether-strip-145004810.html
"Switzerland will hold a referendum on whether to strip the government of its power to impose new lockdown measures."
10. Buy some Bitcoin. The fed is destroying the value of your dollar.
11. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w
"Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes"
Imagine for one moment we had followed WHO and CDC pandemic guidelines from the outset... Those 1/3 were the truly preventable deaths.
12. I see that prescriptions for Ivermectin in the US are on a parabolic rise.
13. mASkS aNd locKDoWnS work:
1 in 3 L.A. County residents have been infected by coronavirus since pandemic began, new estimate shows
Officials believe 1 in 3, or more than 3 million of L.A. County's 10 million residents, have been infected with the coronavirus, including 13,000 who have died.
www.latimes.com
14. I said this about... oh, 9 months ago. https://t.co/EC4Df2tFs7?amp=1
Mayor Lori Lightfoot says Chicago restaurants and bars need to be allowed to reopen "as quickly as possible" to cut down on instances of private parties where people don't take proper precautions against COVID-19. You cannot make this up.
15. Two masks might be better everyone... double up! Heck, try 3 or 4. Breathing is so overrated. It's not enough unless your lightheaded and about to pass out! https://t.co/eikzwSXVJF?amp=1
16. Been harping on this since... well, forever. T-cells. Now the CDC gets on board... amazing how late they are to every party. https://t.co/c5z5PHlPfr?amp=1
“According to our data in volunteers w/confirmed SARSCoV2 infection—majority of ppl w/undetectable systemic IgG may presumably be protected by specific Tcell immunity which would be good news for control of the pandemic”
17. Gonna be a cold virus... said that too... wild type reversion. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522
"...suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold."
I know I've gotten some things wrong, but I nailed some stuff as well. Credit where it's due and criticism where it's due.
18. This isn't really news since we knew it from the reanalysis done of the infamous Drosten paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249691v1.full.pdf
"data present a clear relation between age & CoV2 viral load, with children (<12 years) showing lower viral loads independent of sex & symptom duration."
Cheers RGers
