Symptom Surveillance
The drop off continues...
Testing Data
~1.36 million tests is the 7 day average. 1 week ago it was 1.6 million. -15% week over week.
~64k positives is the 7 day moving average with % positive at ~4.7%. 1 week ago this was 87k/5.4%. -13% week over week.
This is the first time the US has been under 5% positive since late August and early September.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 65k--> 55k (-16%)
ICU.... 13.6--> 11.5k (-16%)
Vent... 4.4k--> 3.8k (-14%)
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 490,382 per CTP.
7 day moving average is ~1925
State Data
Mississippi.
Hospitalizations, 510, are down 11% week over week and 42% in the last 3 weeks. These are early October levels. The entire state looks good. As you can see, the declines are slowing due to the law of large numbers.
Texas:
7661--> 6964 (-10%)
Florida.
Hosp: 4646--> 4175 (-11%)
Alabama.
Hosp: 1104--> 862 (-22%)
Georgia:
3119--> 2760 (-12%)
California.
9075--> 7165 (-21%)
Comments:
1. I hear our baseball team is pretty good...
2. Bitcoin is dipping again. Take advantage, might get some 42-47k range again before the shot to 63-70k. These dips of 20-30% are common, use them to your advantage in the bull market which has another 6-8 months left post halving.
3. Saw a "masks are common sense" comment the other day. To who? Industrial hygienists, the field experts, do not agree. It is really this damn simple:
a. Put on your mask
b. Put on twelve more (because the number is arbitrary in case you haven't noticed yet)
c. Light a fire
d. Inhale next to the fire
e. Can you smell the smoke? Of course you can... right before you pass out.
f. Smoke particles are 2-3 x larger than the respiratory aerosols the virus spreads by.
e. Do the same with perfume, cologne, or any other scent. You can smell it can't you? Yep.
It is physically impossible for them to work. Why do you think the CDC has to resort to such garbage studies like mannequins? Why do they cut off data before cases go up in their correlation graphics? Simple, there is no data for the benefit of masks in human beings. It does not and will not ever exist.
Oh, and this is what you need for protection from anthrax according to USAMRID and the CDC. Keep in mind, anthrax spores are 8-10x LARGER than SARS-Cov2.
Level A protection should be worn when the highest level of respiratory, skin, eye and mucous membrane protection is needed. A typical Level A ensemble includes:
That sound like a cotton T-shirt with straps to you? But go ahead, believe that defying physics is "common sense." Good luck to you.
3. I thought we'd have soooooo many cases post super-spreader events like the superbowl, the CFB championship and that party on Franklin Street after UNC beat Duke. No? Oh...
4. The NY Times. Even they have had enough with the ridiculous schools closures. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/opinion/coronavirus-schools-biden.html
5. A large study confirms lack of spread caused by large sporting events. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251745v1
"This time-series, cross-sectional matching study with a difference-in-differences design did not find an increase in COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with in-person attendance."
Imagine that... you mean respiratory viruses don't spread in large, well ventilated (indoor or outdoor) arenas? Remember those pics from Lombardy to scare everyone? I was skeptical about that as a spreading event from the beginning. Questioned the utility of limiting such large outdoor events. Got called a grandma killer for it too. I didn't say we shouldn't do it, but I did question the usefulness of such an action.
Did you know the 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines did not recommend such action either? Who is following the evidence again?
It just doesn't matter. The virus has an evolutionary job to do and it is darn sure going to do it.
6. Herd immunity by April? Maybe. https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
7. An absolutely blistering takedown of the CDC director and the school guidance. Awesome. https://sanzi.substack.com/p/under-the-just-released-cdc-guidance
"The positive way to look at this is that most schools that are open will likely stay open—these guidelines are not a mandate. But they give serious, albeit unscientific, ammunition to unions and school board members who want to limit in-person instruction as much as possible.
A national catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes."
Yep.
8. I love Sweden. Towns are banning masks. Why? "Halmstad municipality recently forced a teacher to remove their mask & prohibited all forms of PPE in schools..said there was no scientific evidence for wearing masks, citing Swedish public health agency"
principia-scientific.com
With that, I'm out tonight. I'm on call and have a very early day tomorrow.
Cheers RGers
The drop off continues...
Testing Data
~1.36 million tests is the 7 day average. 1 week ago it was 1.6 million. -15% week over week.
~64k positives is the 7 day moving average with % positive at ~4.7%. 1 week ago this was 87k/5.4%. -13% week over week.
This is the first time the US has been under 5% positive since late August and early September.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 65k--> 55k (-16%)
ICU.... 13.6--> 11.5k (-16%)
Vent... 4.4k--> 3.8k (-14%)
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 490,382 per CTP.
7 day moving average is ~1925
State Data
Mississippi.
Hospitalizations, 510, are down 11% week over week and 42% in the last 3 weeks. These are early October levels. The entire state looks good. As you can see, the declines are slowing due to the law of large numbers.
Texas:
7661--> 6964 (-10%)
Florida.
Hosp: 4646--> 4175 (-11%)
Alabama.
Hosp: 1104--> 862 (-22%)
Georgia:
3119--> 2760 (-12%)
California.
9075--> 7165 (-21%)
Comments:
1. I hear our baseball team is pretty good...
2. Bitcoin is dipping again. Take advantage, might get some 42-47k range again before the shot to 63-70k. These dips of 20-30% are common, use them to your advantage in the bull market which has another 6-8 months left post halving.
3. Saw a "masks are common sense" comment the other day. To who? Industrial hygienists, the field experts, do not agree. It is really this damn simple:
a. Put on your mask
b. Put on twelve more (because the number is arbitrary in case you haven't noticed yet)
c. Light a fire
d. Inhale next to the fire
e. Can you smell the smoke? Of course you can... right before you pass out.
f. Smoke particles are 2-3 x larger than the respiratory aerosols the virus spreads by.
e. Do the same with perfume, cologne, or any other scent. You can smell it can't you? Yep.
It is physically impossible for them to work. Why do you think the CDC has to resort to such garbage studies like mannequins? Why do they cut off data before cases go up in their correlation graphics? Simple, there is no data for the benefit of masks in human beings. It does not and will not ever exist.
Oh, and this is what you need for protection from anthrax according to USAMRID and the CDC. Keep in mind, anthrax spores are 8-10x LARGER than SARS-Cov2.
Level A protection should be worn when the highest level of respiratory, skin, eye and mucous membrane protection is needed. A typical Level A ensemble includes:
- Positive pressure (pressure demand), self contained breathing apparatus (SCBA) (NIOSH approved), or positive-pressure supplied air respirator with escape SCBA.
- Fully encapsulating chemical protective suit.
- Gloves, inner, chemical resistant.
- Gloves, outer, chemical resistant.
- Boots, chemical resistant, steel toe and shank; (depending on suit boot construction, worn over or under suit boot.)
That sound like a cotton T-shirt with straps to you? But go ahead, believe that defying physics is "common sense." Good luck to you.
3. I thought we'd have soooooo many cases post super-spreader events like the superbowl, the CFB championship and that party on Franklin Street after UNC beat Duke. No? Oh...
4. The NY Times. Even they have had enough with the ridiculous schools closures. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/opinion/coronavirus-schools-biden.html
5. A large study confirms lack of spread caused by large sporting events. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251745v1
"This time-series, cross-sectional matching study with a difference-in-differences design did not find an increase in COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with in-person attendance."
Imagine that... you mean respiratory viruses don't spread in large, well ventilated (indoor or outdoor) arenas? Remember those pics from Lombardy to scare everyone? I was skeptical about that as a spreading event from the beginning. Questioned the utility of limiting such large outdoor events. Got called a grandma killer for it too. I didn't say we shouldn't do it, but I did question the usefulness of such an action.
Did you know the 2019 WHO pandemic guidelines did not recommend such action either? Who is following the evidence again?
It just doesn't matter. The virus has an evolutionary job to do and it is darn sure going to do it.
6. Herd immunity by April? Maybe. https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
7. An absolutely blistering takedown of the CDC director and the school guidance. Awesome. https://sanzi.substack.com/p/under-the-just-released-cdc-guidance
"The positive way to look at this is that most schools that are open will likely stay open—these guidelines are not a mandate. But they give serious, albeit unscientific, ammunition to unions and school board members who want to limit in-person instruction as much as possible.
A national catastrophe is unfolding before our eyes."
Yep.
8. I love Sweden. Towns are banning masks. Why? "Halmstad municipality recently forced a teacher to remove their mask & prohibited all forms of PPE in schools..said there was no scientific evidence for wearing masks, citing Swedish public health agency"
Sweden Bans Masks: ‘No Scientific Evidence’ They Prevent COVID | Principia Scientific Intl.
Officials in Halmstad municipality, Sweden, recently forced a teacher to remove their mask and prohibited the use of masks and all forms of PPE in schools. The municipality said there was no scientific evidence for wearing masks, citing the Swedish public health agency. What is really amazing is...
principia-scientific.com
With that, I'm out tonight. I'm on call and have a very early day tomorrow.
Cheers RGers
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