Testing and new cases: ~232k tests yesterday. ~7.3 million total. There were about ~21.2k positives today with percentage positive at ~9%. Some weekend effect here but last Monday was 11% positive and the week prior was 17% for an apples to apples comparison (as close as you can get anyway).
National death trend:
2108--> 1911--> 1772--> 2194--> 1095--> 1163--> 2198--> 2700--> 2041--> 1793--> 1651--> 1151--> 938. Total deaths at 62,806 per covidtracking. Tomorrow is a big day as what weekend lag will show up in a big way. Here's what I think. Last week we saw an 89% increase in deaths from Monday to Tuesday. The week prior it was 75%, followed by 65% and then 58% going back to early April. That average is a 71% increase which would put us at ~1640 deaths tomorrow. Should be somewhere around that number if some state doesn't find another 400 NH deaths.
New cases in NY were at ~2.5k today with ~21.4k tests. Very low % positive from NY, 9.2%. Lowest so far. Total net admits are negative again, down to 9,647 hospitalizations currently. Peak hospitalization was 18.8k. Very good signs in NY. Could the rest of the country not give data this way?! Where you can trust the trends? That would be nice.
Trend on new deaths in NY state is 478--> 481--> 474--> 438--> 422--> 437--> 367--> 337--> 335--> 330--> 306--> 289--> 299--> 280--> 236. Spent 6 days in the 400's. Now 5 in the 300's, 4 in the 200's? Maybe? I thought low 200's over the weekend and just made it. Although I'll admit I expected closer to 200 than this. I'll take it. Probably a slight uptick/flat tomorrow but weekend death lags haven't been an issue in NY so we'll see.
Other states:
MA. 86 deaths. ICU bed trend is 1089--> 1005--> 1011--> 1001--> 921--> 904--> 908 . Admits were negative again today and on 6 of last 7 days. Average age of a hospitalized patient is 69, average age of death, 82. 59% of deaths are in nursing homes... still.
NJ. Hospitalizations down 6476--> 6289--> 6137--> 5972--> 5713--> 5317--> 5287. ICU beds are down 1842--> 1809--> 1781--> 1765--> 1724--> 1623--> 1610. Deaths 367--> 328--> 458--> 310--> 204--> 129--> 39. Don't believe it. Remember, NJ had 75-->106 deaths last Sun/Mon.
Michigan. Deaths from 160--> 103--> 129--> 77--> 154--> 29--> 86 today. ICU/vent usage 850/713--> 850/715--> 839/670. Covidtracking did not have the deaths in by the time they reported numbers so there will be a double count tomorrow.
Florida. Deaths 20. Total 1379--> 1399. Covidtracking has this one wrong as well and I don't know why. I get this number from the state's site daily. https://flcovid19.org
Louisiana. 95 deaths today. Vents used 230--> 208--> 213--> 220.
MS. 327 new cases today with 7 deaths. ICU/vent trend is 152/78--> 146/67--> 142/71--> 162/77--> 151/69--> 146/72--> 160/75--> 142/71--> 143/73--> 145/78. Remains stable. For comparison, those numbers were 210/123 on April 8th.
Georgia. Deaths 45. Everyone's watching...
Texas. Hospitalized trend is 1682--> 1702--> 1686--> 1778--> 1725--> 1540--> 1533. Deaths 17.
Illinois. Deaths 59. ICU 1290--> 1289--> 1263--> 1250--> 1232. Vents 772--> 763--> 778--> 777--> 785--> 777--> 789.
PA. Deaths 26--> 14. Hospitalized/vent trend 2807/610--> 2781/616--> 2781/602--> 2707/556--> 2683/590--> 2673/571--> 2645/562--> 2708/573. Don't believe the deaths for PA on the weekend... just don't, or anything else.
CO. Still ~10% positive on average in serology today. Makes the iFR there very low, ~0.14%.
56% of deaths are in NH's.
Comments:
1. There have been some model revisions. Don't believe them. They don't know. I can tell you this for a fact... there will not be 3,000 deaths/day in June. That will not happen. That is sheer lunacy unless we start counting cardiovascular deaths and cancer deaths as CV19 deaths. Well.. maybe it is possible. Seriously, that's not an epi curve, it's a horsesh!t curve. Fear/panic porn.
2. Do not listen to people telling you 2k people are dying per day. Yeah, in mid April, not now.
3. My God what is going on? Seriously WTF is going on?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-03/coronavirus-nursing-homes-financial-profits
I take it back @VINHENSEL , with clowns like these running the show, we may get to your number. But it won't be because of the virus, it will be because our elected officials are idiots...
4. A full 2/3 of deaths in Virginia are in nursing homes... wow. That takes a super special level of incompetence to achieve... beyond even MA. Maybe the worlds worst. Again, why is this not the story on the news every day/night? WHY?!
5. And finally... the best line I saw today... "Funny those viruses, not doing what we want them to do":
May will be much better than April.
Cheers RGers
National death trend:
2108--> 1911--> 1772--> 2194--> 1095--> 1163--> 2198--> 2700--> 2041--> 1793--> 1651--> 1151--> 938. Total deaths at 62,806 per covidtracking. Tomorrow is a big day as what weekend lag will show up in a big way. Here's what I think. Last week we saw an 89% increase in deaths from Monday to Tuesday. The week prior it was 75%, followed by 65% and then 58% going back to early April. That average is a 71% increase which would put us at ~1640 deaths tomorrow. Should be somewhere around that number if some state doesn't find another 400 NH deaths.
New cases in NY were at ~2.5k today with ~21.4k tests. Very low % positive from NY, 9.2%. Lowest so far. Total net admits are negative again, down to 9,647 hospitalizations currently. Peak hospitalization was 18.8k. Very good signs in NY. Could the rest of the country not give data this way?! Where you can trust the trends? That would be nice.
Trend on new deaths in NY state is 478--> 481--> 474--> 438--> 422--> 437--> 367--> 337--> 335--> 330--> 306--> 289--> 299--> 280--> 236. Spent 6 days in the 400's. Now 5 in the 300's, 4 in the 200's? Maybe? I thought low 200's over the weekend and just made it. Although I'll admit I expected closer to 200 than this. I'll take it. Probably a slight uptick/flat tomorrow but weekend death lags haven't been an issue in NY so we'll see.
Other states:
MA. 86 deaths. ICU bed trend is 1089--> 1005--> 1011--> 1001--> 921--> 904--> 908 . Admits were negative again today and on 6 of last 7 days. Average age of a hospitalized patient is 69, average age of death, 82. 59% of deaths are in nursing homes... still.
NJ. Hospitalizations down 6476--> 6289--> 6137--> 5972--> 5713--> 5317--> 5287. ICU beds are down 1842--> 1809--> 1781--> 1765--> 1724--> 1623--> 1610. Deaths 367--> 328--> 458--> 310--> 204--> 129--> 39. Don't believe it. Remember, NJ had 75-->106 deaths last Sun/Mon.
Michigan. Deaths from 160--> 103--> 129--> 77--> 154--> 29--> 86 today. ICU/vent usage 850/713--> 850/715--> 839/670. Covidtracking did not have the deaths in by the time they reported numbers so there will be a double count tomorrow.
Florida. Deaths 20. Total 1379--> 1399. Covidtracking has this one wrong as well and I don't know why. I get this number from the state's site daily. https://flcovid19.org
Louisiana. 95 deaths today. Vents used 230--> 208--> 213--> 220.
MS. 327 new cases today with 7 deaths. ICU/vent trend is 152/78--> 146/67--> 142/71--> 162/77--> 151/69--> 146/72--> 160/75--> 142/71--> 143/73--> 145/78. Remains stable. For comparison, those numbers were 210/123 on April 8th.
Georgia. Deaths 45. Everyone's watching...
Texas. Hospitalized trend is 1682--> 1702--> 1686--> 1778--> 1725--> 1540--> 1533. Deaths 17.
Illinois. Deaths 59. ICU 1290--> 1289--> 1263--> 1250--> 1232. Vents 772--> 763--> 778--> 777--> 785--> 777--> 789.
PA. Deaths 26--> 14. Hospitalized/vent trend 2807/610--> 2781/616--> 2781/602--> 2707/556--> 2683/590--> 2673/571--> 2645/562--> 2708/573. Don't believe the deaths for PA on the weekend... just don't, or anything else.
CO. Still ~10% positive on average in serology today. Makes the iFR there very low, ~0.14%.
56% of deaths are in NH's.
Comments:
1. There have been some model revisions. Don't believe them. They don't know. I can tell you this for a fact... there will not be 3,000 deaths/day in June. That will not happen. That is sheer lunacy unless we start counting cardiovascular deaths and cancer deaths as CV19 deaths. Well.. maybe it is possible. Seriously, that's not an epi curve, it's a horsesh!t curve. Fear/panic porn.
2. Do not listen to people telling you 2k people are dying per day. Yeah, in mid April, not now.
3. My God what is going on? Seriously WTF is going on?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-03/coronavirus-nursing-homes-financial-profits
I take it back @VINHENSEL , with clowns like these running the show, we may get to your number. But it won't be because of the virus, it will be because our elected officials are idiots...
4. A full 2/3 of deaths in Virginia are in nursing homes... wow. That takes a super special level of incompetence to achieve... beyond even MA. Maybe the worlds worst. Again, why is this not the story on the news every day/night? WHY?!
5. And finally... the best line I saw today... "Funny those viruses, not doing what we want them to do":
May will be much better than April.
Cheers RGers
