No post tomorrow. I left town to get away from the nonsense.
Testing Data
~852k tests yesterday.
~44.2 million total tests performed to date.
~77.2k positives with percentage positive at ~9%.
70.4% of cases again came from the same 10 states. Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. 10 states = 14.3% positive. 41 states = 4.7% positive.
Border examination: Border cases into the entire southern CA & southern AZ region... Excluding LA County, those counties have 234,502 cases. Including LA, it's 381,970 cases. There are only 3 countries in the world (non-US) with more cases than that: Brazil, India & Russia. Seems important.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 51544--> 51798--> 52578--> 53916--> 55509--> 56147--> 57369--> 57705 (12%)
ICU... 5889----> 5928---> 5919----> 6061---> 6233----> 6326---> 6359---> 6453 (9.5%)
Vent.. 2197----> 2169---> 2182----> 2259---> 2263----> 2322---> 2317---> 2353 (7.1%)
All metrics up a little. Interestingly, hospitalization week over week percent change barely moved now that Florida has a week of data to incorporate. 60% of current national hospitalizations are still in 5 states, Arizona, California, Georgia, Florida and Texas.
I used to make this graph myself but he makes it better. If you want some great graphics, follow @Hold2LLC on twitter.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 131,523 per CTP. 53.2% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 949 deaths today.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476--> 327--> 736--> 855--> 977--> 951
Nice to see TES making the same point I was yesterday.
State Data
Texas. Deaths 174. 41.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 10002--> 10083--> 10410--> 10405--> 10569--> 10471--> 10457--> 10632 (+6.2%)
ICU: 2923----> 2913----> 2995---> 3053---> 3144---> 3104----> 3169---> 3216 (+10%)
Week over week % change continues to fall. Top is here, just a matter of how long this plateau is.
Houston area. Plateaued, ER visits continue to drop which is the best news of all:
Dallas area: Still looks great. Nothing to add.
San Antonio. ICU beds up more but general beds and ER visits are flat. Just can't tell which way this one is about to go.
Austin area...
Hosp: 534--> 440--> 438--> 434--> 459--> 469--> 492--> 479--> 469.
Not a problem... won't be a problem and was never going to be one. I'm not saying they can't have higher numbers but these are extremely small numbers for the service area.
Hidalgo... Wasn't a sign of hope. ER, ICU and census all jumped up today.
Florida. 156 deaths. 47.9% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542--> 8051--> 8354--> 8217--> 9112--> 8961 (28%)
Today's occupancy: All Beds: 78.1%, ICU Beds: 81.8%
One week ago: All Beds: 80.1%, ICU Beds: 82.8%
I don't see any problem in Florida at the moment. FYI, most recent antibody study in Miami shows them approaching 20%... let's see what happens... 16.1% currently.
Georgia. 28, deaths. 45.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2322--> 2443--> 2512--> 2600--> 2741--> 2786--> 2841--> 2902 (+25%)
Arizona. 58 deaths today. 46.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3432--> 3485--> 3432--> 3373--> 3517--> 3493--> 3454--> 3466 (+1%)
ICU.... 876---> 899----> 922----> 936---> 970----> 929---> 918---> 944 (+7.7%)
Vent... 615---> 620----> 631----> 671---> 674----> 671---> 657---> 687 (+11%)
Discharges at 500 exactly. Hospitalizations remain flat for over a week. Antibody testing is 12% positive now, it was 3% in May.
Mississippi. 24 deaths, with 7 legacy. 48.5% of deaths in NH's.
1032 cases. 140 LTC outbreaks! This is a major problem.
Hosp: 711--> 703--> 704--> 758--> 816--> 825--> 855--> 853 (+20%)
ICU... 205--> 202--> 197--> 208--> 227--> 239--> 247--> 253 (+23%)
Vent... 103--> 107--> 108--> 110--> 127--> 132--> 125--> 129 (+25%)
Pretty flat overall with slightly up ICU and vents. The LTC outbreaks are not good. You cannot sugarcoat that at all and it should be the main focus of the state's efforts to quell that issue. Still about the same around here, busy but busy with everything. CV19 about 12% of census. I know for a fact that none of the coast hospitals are at capacity despite the issues in central MS. I've not heard of UMMC being on diversion for a week either as someone posted today. However, my understanding was Baptist had no such issue from a colleague. It certainly could have changed. I also would like to know what type of diversion. This isn't a binary problem of diversion or not. You can be on critical care diversion, STEMI diversion, ER diversion, etc. Wish I had details on that. If you look at the overall case numbers, it makes sense where the issues are with diversion. Also, is UMMC like us in that they have 12% of census is CV19 and the rest is stuff that's been delayed for 3 months? We've got an HCQ experiment ongoing I'll tell you guys/gals about at some point in the future.
Alabama. 19 deaths. 2k cases today.
Hosp: 1201--> 1068--> 1335--> 1353--> 1362--> 1362--> 1395--> 1416 (+18%).
The rate of rise here is losing some slight steam. Have to see if that holds up next week because as you know, we will get a false drop over the weekend. Jefferson, Mobile and Madison had most of the positives today.
Louisiana. 24 deaths. 46.4% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1117--> 1182--> 1243--> 1308--> 1362--> 1369--> 1401--> 1413 (+26%)
Vents.. 122---> 121----> 134---> 142----> 146---> 149---> 162--> 161 (+32%)
California. 130 deaths. 46.5% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7896--> 7904--> 7854--> 7895--> 8145--> 8353--> 8363--> 8450 (+7%)
ICU.. 2005--> 2021--> 2020--> 2021--> 2083--> 2110--> 2120--> 2153 (+7.3%)
Arkansas. 6 deaths.
Hosp: 402--> 402--> 412--> 439--> 445--> 458--> 470--> 464 (+15%)
Vent.... 84---> 84----> 84---> 89----> 91---> 94--> 101---> 97 (+15%)
Tennessee. 19 Deaths.
Hosp: 822--> 808--> 802--> 804--> 863--> 906--> 984--> 985 (+20%)
South Carolina. 26 deaths. 42.9% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1438--> 1396--> 1472--> 1488--> 1550--> 1560--> 1578--> 1593 (+11%)
Still plenty of bed capacity in the state. Epi curve still saying late June as the peak. That means the discharges should pick up and hospitalizations begin to flatten, fall.
North Carolina. 20 deaths. 53.6% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1046--> 1093--> 1070--> 1040--> 1109--> 1142--> 1134--> 1180 (+13%)
New Jersey. 19 deaths. 50% of deaths in NH's. Done with NJ. The data is a joke anyway but it's all but done with the exception of a few more huge death data dumps. Today's death had a "few dating back to April" according to the DOH... ridiculous.
Illinois. 25 Deaths. 54.6% of deaths are in NH's in this weeks update.
Hosp: 1507--> 1436--> 1342--> 1362--> 1416--> 1454--> 1434--> 1431 (+5.3%)
Comments:
1. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2...ingschoolsclosedfaroutweighthebenefitsleaders
"All around the world, children’s minds are going to waste."
2. "Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals."
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
3. "Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity[9] in SARS-CoV-2 infection."
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
4. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/?page=10
How is this possible?
5. 9 million under 18 in California... zero deaths from CV19.
6. "These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1
7. More T-cells:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
"We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP. Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients."
Cheers RGers
Testing Data
~852k tests yesterday.
~44.2 million total tests performed to date.
~77.2k positives with percentage positive at ~9%.
70.4% of cases again came from the same 10 states. Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. 10 states = 14.3% positive. 41 states = 4.7% positive.
Border examination: Border cases into the entire southern CA & southern AZ region... Excluding LA County, those counties have 234,502 cases. Including LA, it's 381,970 cases. There are only 3 countries in the world (non-US) with more cases than that: Brazil, India & Russia. Seems important.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 51544--> 51798--> 52578--> 53916--> 55509--> 56147--> 57369--> 57705 (12%)
ICU... 5889----> 5928---> 5919----> 6061---> 6233----> 6326---> 6359---> 6453 (9.5%)
Vent.. 2197----> 2169---> 2182----> 2259---> 2263----> 2322---> 2317---> 2353 (7.1%)
All metrics up a little. Interestingly, hospitalization week over week percent change barely moved now that Florida has a week of data to incorporate. 60% of current national hospitalizations are still in 5 states, Arizona, California, Georgia, Florida and Texas.
I used to make this graph myself but he makes it better. If you want some great graphics, follow @Hold2LLC on twitter.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 131,523 per CTP. 53.2% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 949 deaths today.
358--> 375--> 713--> 782--> 795--> 648--> 630 = 4301 (-16%)
297--> 285--> 703--> 722--> 646--> 636--> 506 = 3778 (-12%)
273--> 332--> 575--> 697--> 634--> 635--> 306 = 3511 (-8%)
209--> 242--> 922--> 760--> 867*-> 777*-> 854 = 4631 (+25%)
476--> 327--> 736--> 855--> 977--> 951
Nice to see TES making the same point I was yesterday.
State Data
Texas. Deaths 174. 41.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hos: 10002--> 10083--> 10410--> 10405--> 10569--> 10471--> 10457--> 10632 (+6.2%)
ICU: 2923----> 2913----> 2995---> 3053---> 3144---> 3104----> 3169---> 3216 (+10%)
Week over week % change continues to fall. Top is here, just a matter of how long this plateau is.
Houston area. Plateaued, ER visits continue to drop which is the best news of all:
Dallas area: Still looks great. Nothing to add.
San Antonio. ICU beds up more but general beds and ER visits are flat. Just can't tell which way this one is about to go.
Austin area...
Hosp: 534--> 440--> 438--> 434--> 459--> 469--> 492--> 479--> 469.
Not a problem... won't be a problem and was never going to be one. I'm not saying they can't have higher numbers but these are extremely small numbers for the service area.
Hidalgo... Wasn't a sign of hope. ER, ICU and census all jumped up today.
Florida. 156 deaths. 47.9% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 6974--> 7186--> 7542--> 8051--> 8354--> 8217--> 9112--> 8961 (28%)
Today's occupancy: All Beds: 78.1%, ICU Beds: 81.8%
One week ago: All Beds: 80.1%, ICU Beds: 82.8%
I don't see any problem in Florida at the moment. FYI, most recent antibody study in Miami shows them approaching 20%... let's see what happens... 16.1% currently.
Georgia. 28, deaths. 45.8% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2322--> 2443--> 2512--> 2600--> 2741--> 2786--> 2841--> 2902 (+25%)
Arizona. 58 deaths today. 46.4% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3432--> 3485--> 3432--> 3373--> 3517--> 3493--> 3454--> 3466 (+1%)
ICU.... 876---> 899----> 922----> 936---> 970----> 929---> 918---> 944 (+7.7%)
Vent... 615---> 620----> 631----> 671---> 674----> 671---> 657---> 687 (+11%)
Discharges at 500 exactly. Hospitalizations remain flat for over a week. Antibody testing is 12% positive now, it was 3% in May.
Mississippi. 24 deaths, with 7 legacy. 48.5% of deaths in NH's.
1032 cases. 140 LTC outbreaks! This is a major problem.
Hosp: 711--> 703--> 704--> 758--> 816--> 825--> 855--> 853 (+20%)
ICU... 205--> 202--> 197--> 208--> 227--> 239--> 247--> 253 (+23%)
Vent... 103--> 107--> 108--> 110--> 127--> 132--> 125--> 129 (+25%)
Pretty flat overall with slightly up ICU and vents. The LTC outbreaks are not good. You cannot sugarcoat that at all and it should be the main focus of the state's efforts to quell that issue. Still about the same around here, busy but busy with everything. CV19 about 12% of census. I know for a fact that none of the coast hospitals are at capacity despite the issues in central MS. I've not heard of UMMC being on diversion for a week either as someone posted today. However, my understanding was Baptist had no such issue from a colleague. It certainly could have changed. I also would like to know what type of diversion. This isn't a binary problem of diversion or not. You can be on critical care diversion, STEMI diversion, ER diversion, etc. Wish I had details on that. If you look at the overall case numbers, it makes sense where the issues are with diversion. Also, is UMMC like us in that they have 12% of census is CV19 and the rest is stuff that's been delayed for 3 months? We've got an HCQ experiment ongoing I'll tell you guys/gals about at some point in the future.
Alabama. 19 deaths. 2k cases today.
Hosp: 1201--> 1068--> 1335--> 1353--> 1362--> 1362--> 1395--> 1416 (+18%).
The rate of rise here is losing some slight steam. Have to see if that holds up next week because as you know, we will get a false drop over the weekend. Jefferson, Mobile and Madison had most of the positives today.
Louisiana. 24 deaths. 46.4% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 1117--> 1182--> 1243--> 1308--> 1362--> 1369--> 1401--> 1413 (+26%)
Vents.. 122---> 121----> 134---> 142----> 146---> 149---> 162--> 161 (+32%)
California. 130 deaths. 46.5% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 7896--> 7904--> 7854--> 7895--> 8145--> 8353--> 8363--> 8450 (+7%)
ICU.. 2005--> 2021--> 2020--> 2021--> 2083--> 2110--> 2120--> 2153 (+7.3%)
Arkansas. 6 deaths.
Hosp: 402--> 402--> 412--> 439--> 445--> 458--> 470--> 464 (+15%)
Vent.... 84---> 84----> 84---> 89----> 91---> 94--> 101---> 97 (+15%)
Tennessee. 19 Deaths.
Hosp: 822--> 808--> 802--> 804--> 863--> 906--> 984--> 985 (+20%)
South Carolina. 26 deaths. 42.9% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1438--> 1396--> 1472--> 1488--> 1550--> 1560--> 1578--> 1593 (+11%)
Still plenty of bed capacity in the state. Epi curve still saying late June as the peak. That means the discharges should pick up and hospitalizations begin to flatten, fall.
North Carolina. 20 deaths. 53.6% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1046--> 1093--> 1070--> 1040--> 1109--> 1142--> 1134--> 1180 (+13%)
New Jersey. 19 deaths. 50% of deaths in NH's. Done with NJ. The data is a joke anyway but it's all but done with the exception of a few more huge death data dumps. Today's death had a "few dating back to April" according to the DOH... ridiculous.
Illinois. 25 Deaths. 54.6% of deaths are in NH's in this weeks update.
Hosp: 1507--> 1436--> 1342--> 1362--> 1416--> 1454--> 1434--> 1431 (+5.3%)
Comments:
1. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2...ingschoolsclosedfaroutweighthebenefitsleaders
"All around the world, children’s minds are going to waste."
2. "Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust memory T cell responses akin to those observed in the context of successful vaccines, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19 also in seronegative individuals."
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1
3. "Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity[9] in SARS-CoV-2 infection."
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
4. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/?page=10
How is this possible?
5. 9 million under 18 in California... zero deaths from CV19.
6. "These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1
7. More T-cells:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
"We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP. Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients."
Cheers RGers
