Testing Data
~897k tests yesterday.
~95.1 million total tests performed to date.
~37.3k positives with percentage positive at ~4.1%
There are now 9 states reporting antigen testing which is one of two reasons we are about to see 1 million tests per day on average. The other reason being, CTP is now counting all tests and not just persons tested. I also learned recently that the NFL is using antigen testing. Explains a lot. If negative, go about your business, if + you get a confirmatory PCR. If the PCR is negative and no symptoms, you are still a negative. That is my understanding of the NFL protocol currently. If we are going to pursue this flawed asymptomatic testing strategy, I think this is the best option since antigen testing is better at determining infectiousness (actively able to transmit the virus) than PCR.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 29816--> 29795--> 30327--> 30278--> 29900--> 29492--> 29025--> 28615 (-4%)
ICU.... 6235----> 6208----> 6310---> 6308---> 6277-----> 6175----> 6059---> 6012 (-4%)
Vent... 1561----> 1507-----> 1572-----> 1651---> 1658-----> 1605----> 1579----> 1597 (+2%)
These metrics have slowed. I expect them to continue falling but in a more yo-yo pattern with ups and downs but more of the latter. Confirmed hospitalizations are at ~25.5k. There are currently 2 per 100k in the ICU in the entire country. Think about that. It is over.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 191,627 per CTP. 48.1% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 324 deaths today.
572--> 343-> 1147> 1249-> 1129-> 1023> 1014 = 6477 (-6.5%)
475--> 358-> 1022> 1021-> 1073-> 998--> 915 = 5862 (-10%)
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404-->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)-->. This number is negative excluding data dumps from AZ, VA, AR, and OH this week.
324
Latest updated week by week graphic using official CDC numbers:
State Data
Mississippi. 1 death, 1 legacy. 41.6% of deaths in NH's.
277 cases. 129 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 559--> 558--> 528--> 524--> 532--> 518--> 503--> 506 (-9%)
ICU... 182---> 181---> 178--> 177---> 173--> 168--> 169--> 171 (-6%)
Vent.. 100---> 102---> 92---> 88---> 93---> 98--> 95---> 87 (-13%)
MSDH is now taking the whole weekend off. Urgencies and all. Status quo here locally, no big changes.
Texas. Deaths, 45. 30% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3371--> 3391--> 3311--> 3249--> 3246--> 3172--> 3124--> 3081 (-10%)
79 total hospitalizations in Austin.
Florida. Deaths, 9. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2631--> 2637--> 2574--> 2464--> 2385--> 2383--> 2266--> 2292 (-13%)
Georgia. 63 deaths. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1545--> 1553--> 1536--> 1507--> 1475--> 1419 --> 1410--> 1420 (-8%)
Alabama. 0 deaths. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 793--> 790--> 792--> 716--> 722--> 740--> 744--> 780 (-2%).
Louisiana. 26 deaths. 40% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 680--> 664--> 667--> 678--> 663--> 647--> 647--> 596 (-12%)
California. 75 deaths. 38% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3741--> 3665--> 3735--> 3684--> 3621--> 3570--> 3510--> 3441 (-8%)
Santa Barbara county has 4 ICU patients... they have a population of nearly 500,000
Arkansas. 8 deaths. 35% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 381--> 378--> 389--> 387--> 389--> 372--> 372--> 404 (+6%)
Tennessee. 32 Deaths. 26.5% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 717--> 727--> 831--> 814--> 823--> 806--> 777--> 662 (-8%)
South Carolina. 11 deaths. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 752--> 733--> 745--> 784--> 733--> 798--> 826--> 733 (-3%)
North Carolina. 8 deaths. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 831--> 895--> 916--> 918--> 894--> 904--> 882--> 889 (+7%)
Comments:
1. Bad research and journal article retraction are not new to CV19. They happen and it's usually d/t malfeasance, not unintentional error. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937689?src=soc_tw_200920_mscpedt_news_mdscp_retraction&faf=1
"certain data had been fabricated by the first author amending the actual study data so that the paper and the central illustration would show a compelling case that T1 mapping could distinguish between epicardial obstructive coronary artery disease and coronary microvascular dysfunction..."
When you see me being harsh on research, it is for a reason. Learning to detect bullsh!t is a requirement of the job. Ask any drug rep that walks into my office. It is not fun for them. It's a lesson.
2. Seriously, does it make sense to anyone to do hybrid learning if you are trying to prevent transmission? Anyone? How does it make sense? Lots of time at school AND lots of time at home. As the brits would say, "that's bollocks." Case in point... which mode of learning isn't showing a nice decrease in slope for cases?
Remote and in person are the same. Only hybrid's slope looks different and closer to flat. Reasoning here: https://www.wired.com/story/hybrid-schooling-is-the-most-dangerous-option-of-all/
Dimitri Christakis, a pediatrician and epidemiologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine and the editor in chief of JAMA Pediatrics: “There’s a real chance a hybrid model could advance the spread of the virus.”
Seriously, the level of stupidity in the public service domain knows no bounds. That statement is not meant to offend people in that domain, but you have to take some incredible leaps of logic to come up with "hybrid learning" as a way to decrease transmission. It's like the right and left sides of their brain are just up there playing ping pong... and slow ping pong at that, not olympic level stuff. Who comes up with this nonsense? Has the ineptness of government ever been more apparent? Poor communication, no consistency, advising against standard pandemic guidelines in place for decades, PCR Ct levels, death counting all while flip-flopping on key issues like fomite transmission, aerosol transmission, masks, asymptomatic spread, asymptomatic testing... on and on it goes where/when it ends nobody knows! A total lack of awareness and giving a damn. This is like me coming into a patient's room and telling them after a cath they need bypass surgery. Then coming back the next day and telling them that I looked at the exact same pictures as yesterday but you don't need surgery anymore. In fact, you're fine, go home and take aspirin. How many of those patients do you think would trust me? I hope it would be zero.
3. Been saying it over and over... https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-kids-coronavirus-symptoms-believed.html
"It is becoming clear that they do not amplify this virus the way they do influenza when it comes to community spread," Becoming clear? It's been clear, since April.
4. Where do I sign? https://www.aier.org/article/open-l...ll-belgian-authorities-and-all-belgian-media/
"After the initial panic surrounding covid-19, the objective facts now show a completely different picture – there is no medical justification for any emergency policy anymore.
The current crisis management has become totally disproportionate and causes more damage than it does any good."
They continue:
"Koch’s postulate was not fulfilled (“The pure agent found in a patient with complaints can provoke the same complaints in a healthy person”). Since a positive PCR test does not automatically indicate active infection or infectivity, this does not justify the social measures taken, which are based solely on these tests."
Amen to that. The entire letter is very well done.
5. Check out the cycle thresholds in Canada... some are 45. Crazy. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219382/pdf/main.pdf
6. "The only "circuit break" we need is from bad data." Yes, please. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...it-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html
7. A nice example of correlation not equaling causation:
8. I post this graph again to point out one thing. Notice the convergence of the ends of these curves. NY/NJ ended simultaneously. FL, TX, AZ, CA doing the same. Hope-Simpson... dude was a genius.
9. WSJ is catching on...
www.wsj.com
"Among Alzheimer’s and dementia patients, the CDC recorded about 200,000 overall U.S. deaths this year, up more than 27,000 when measured against the death average from the five prior years. The increase highlights how factors like isolation and disruption in care when nursing homes locked down further compromise fragile patients."
These deaths are particularly bothersome to me. These are deaths of despair and loneliness. Tragic and avoidable.
10. This is a really good question. Where are all of the movie theatre linked cases? Everyone, including me, thought these would be transmission sites. Doesn't appear to be the case, at least to a significant degree. This illustrates why you have to keep questioning your assumptions. https://bookandfilmglobe.com/film/where-are-all-the-movie-theater-covid-cases/
11. It takes 36 days on average to clear the virus from symptom onset using nasopharyngeal swabs. 36 days people. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e040380#article-bottom
12. 3 school districts in KC, MO:
*27,769 students and staff in attendance
*60 schools
*13 Positive Cases
*5 total weeks in attendance
Are we done yet with the school narrative?
13. WE HAVE LOST OUR MINDS! https://www.nj.com/education/2020/0...uarantine-after-covid-19-found-in-sewage.html
What in the absolute F#$$!!! Wait, I know, let's go around and check everyone's crap line into the city sewer and quarantine the houses that are positive! Let's use a crap PCR test on literal crap! Science! Even better is this little tidbit: "None of the students have reported any symptoms of the virus."
14. Can anyone explain Greece? Oldest population in the EU:
I can explain it, can you? Answer tomorrow... no prizes.
15. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...antly-surprising-virus-found-be-heat-tolerant
*Hungarian team finds virus particle withstands being probed by a nano needle 100 times, possibly making it the most physically elastic virus known
*French scientists find it can replicate in animal cells after being exposed to temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius for an hour
*This means CoV2 is uncontainable even by a BSL-3. Normal decontamination systems have no effect. 90C+10min did not cause perceivable inactivation. Chemicals do nothing to it. You can’t scrub it off, you can’t wash it and destroy it. UV light is required for inactivation or incineration. A microwave might work... I need to think on that. Even an autoclave probably doesn't kill it. And people thing it's natural... ok then.
This means one thing for sure, masks are useless. Cannot be contained by a BSL-3? Look up the BSL-3 protocols people! El oh el at the masks... the talisman of safety.
Conclusion: The concentration of aerosols generated by experimental activities and accidents in the BSL-3 laboratory cannot be ignored, and it will cause biological contamination and personnel infection risks.
I'll say it one more time: YOU CANNOT STOP IT. Thankfully, it will stop itself just like the other 200 respiratory pathogens.
Cheers RGers
~897k tests yesterday.
~95.1 million total tests performed to date.
~37.3k positives with percentage positive at ~4.1%
There are now 9 states reporting antigen testing which is one of two reasons we are about to see 1 million tests per day on average. The other reason being, CTP is now counting all tests and not just persons tested. I also learned recently that the NFL is using antigen testing. Explains a lot. If negative, go about your business, if + you get a confirmatory PCR. If the PCR is negative and no symptoms, you are still a negative. That is my understanding of the NFL protocol currently. If we are going to pursue this flawed asymptomatic testing strategy, I think this is the best option since antigen testing is better at determining infectiousness (actively able to transmit the virus) than PCR.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp: 29816--> 29795--> 30327--> 30278--> 29900--> 29492--> 29025--> 28615 (-4%)
ICU.... 6235----> 6208----> 6310---> 6308---> 6277-----> 6175----> 6059---> 6012 (-4%)
Vent... 1561----> 1507-----> 1572-----> 1651---> 1658-----> 1605----> 1579----> 1597 (+2%)
These metrics have slowed. I expect them to continue falling but in a more yo-yo pattern with ups and downs but more of the latter. Confirmed hospitalizations are at ~25.5k. There are currently 2 per 100k in the ICU in the entire country. Think about that. It is over.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 191,627 per CTP. 48.1% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 324 deaths today.
572--> 343-> 1147> 1249-> 1129-> 1023> 1014 = 6477 (-6.5%)
475--> 358-> 1022> 1021-> 1073-> 998--> 915 = 5862 (-10%)
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404-->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)-->. This number is negative excluding data dumps from AZ, VA, AR, and OH this week.
324
Latest updated week by week graphic using official CDC numbers:
State Data
Mississippi. 1 death, 1 legacy. 41.6% of deaths in NH's.
277 cases. 129 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 559--> 558--> 528--> 524--> 532--> 518--> 503--> 506 (-9%)
ICU... 182---> 181---> 178--> 177---> 173--> 168--> 169--> 171 (-6%)
Vent.. 100---> 102---> 92---> 88---> 93---> 98--> 95---> 87 (-13%)
MSDH is now taking the whole weekend off. Urgencies and all. Status quo here locally, no big changes.
Texas. Deaths, 45. 30% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3371--> 3391--> 3311--> 3249--> 3246--> 3172--> 3124--> 3081 (-10%)
79 total hospitalizations in Austin.
Florida. Deaths, 9. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2631--> 2637--> 2574--> 2464--> 2385--> 2383--> 2266--> 2292 (-13%)
Georgia. 63 deaths. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1545--> 1553--> 1536--> 1507--> 1475--> 1419 --> 1410--> 1420 (-8%)
Alabama. 0 deaths. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 793--> 790--> 792--> 716--> 722--> 740--> 744--> 780 (-2%).
Louisiana. 26 deaths. 40% of total deaths are in NH's.
Hosp: 680--> 664--> 667--> 678--> 663--> 647--> 647--> 596 (-12%)
California. 75 deaths. 38% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3741--> 3665--> 3735--> 3684--> 3621--> 3570--> 3510--> 3441 (-8%)
Santa Barbara county has 4 ICU patients... they have a population of nearly 500,000
Arkansas. 8 deaths. 35% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 381--> 378--> 389--> 387--> 389--> 372--> 372--> 404 (+6%)
Tennessee. 32 Deaths. 26.5% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 717--> 727--> 831--> 814--> 823--> 806--> 777--> 662 (-8%)
South Carolina. 11 deaths. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 752--> 733--> 745--> 784--> 733--> 798--> 826--> 733 (-3%)
North Carolina. 8 deaths. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 831--> 895--> 916--> 918--> 894--> 904--> 882--> 889 (+7%)
Comments:
1. Bad research and journal article retraction are not new to CV19. They happen and it's usually d/t malfeasance, not unintentional error. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/937689?src=soc_tw_200920_mscpedt_news_mdscp_retraction&faf=1
"certain data had been fabricated by the first author amending the actual study data so that the paper and the central illustration would show a compelling case that T1 mapping could distinguish between epicardial obstructive coronary artery disease and coronary microvascular dysfunction..."
When you see me being harsh on research, it is for a reason. Learning to detect bullsh!t is a requirement of the job. Ask any drug rep that walks into my office. It is not fun for them. It's a lesson.
2. Seriously, does it make sense to anyone to do hybrid learning if you are trying to prevent transmission? Anyone? How does it make sense? Lots of time at school AND lots of time at home. As the brits would say, "that's bollocks." Case in point... which mode of learning isn't showing a nice decrease in slope for cases?
Remote and in person are the same. Only hybrid's slope looks different and closer to flat. Reasoning here: https://www.wired.com/story/hybrid-schooling-is-the-most-dangerous-option-of-all/
Dimitri Christakis, a pediatrician and epidemiologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine and the editor in chief of JAMA Pediatrics: “There’s a real chance a hybrid model could advance the spread of the virus.”
Seriously, the level of stupidity in the public service domain knows no bounds. That statement is not meant to offend people in that domain, but you have to take some incredible leaps of logic to come up with "hybrid learning" as a way to decrease transmission. It's like the right and left sides of their brain are just up there playing ping pong... and slow ping pong at that, not olympic level stuff. Who comes up with this nonsense? Has the ineptness of government ever been more apparent? Poor communication, no consistency, advising against standard pandemic guidelines in place for decades, PCR Ct levels, death counting all while flip-flopping on key issues like fomite transmission, aerosol transmission, masks, asymptomatic spread, asymptomatic testing... on and on it goes where/when it ends nobody knows! A total lack of awareness and giving a damn. This is like me coming into a patient's room and telling them after a cath they need bypass surgery. Then coming back the next day and telling them that I looked at the exact same pictures as yesterday but you don't need surgery anymore. In fact, you're fine, go home and take aspirin. How many of those patients do you think would trust me? I hope it would be zero.
3. Been saying it over and over... https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-kids-coronavirus-symptoms-believed.html
"It is becoming clear that they do not amplify this virus the way they do influenza when it comes to community spread," Becoming clear? It's been clear, since April.
4. Where do I sign? https://www.aier.org/article/open-l...ll-belgian-authorities-and-all-belgian-media/
"After the initial panic surrounding covid-19, the objective facts now show a completely different picture – there is no medical justification for any emergency policy anymore.
The current crisis management has become totally disproportionate and causes more damage than it does any good."
They continue:
"Koch’s postulate was not fulfilled (“The pure agent found in a patient with complaints can provoke the same complaints in a healthy person”). Since a positive PCR test does not automatically indicate active infection or infectivity, this does not justify the social measures taken, which are based solely on these tests."
Amen to that. The entire letter is very well done.
5. Check out the cycle thresholds in Canada... some are 45. Crazy. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219382/pdf/main.pdf
6. "The only "circuit break" we need is from bad data." Yes, please. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...it-break-need-cycle-bad-data-bad-science.html
7. A nice example of correlation not equaling causation:
8. I post this graph again to point out one thing. Notice the convergence of the ends of these curves. NY/NJ ended simultaneously. FL, TX, AZ, CA doing the same. Hope-Simpson... dude was a genius.
9. WSJ is catching on...
Death Toll From Covid-19 Pandemic Extends Far Beyond Virus Victims
Researchers are finding growing evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic’s deadly reach is stretching far beyond people who died from coronavirus infections, reflecting the ways the pandemic amplified stress and financial strain while causing many people to avoid hospitals.
www.wsj.com
These deaths are particularly bothersome to me. These are deaths of despair and loneliness. Tragic and avoidable.
10. This is a really good question. Where are all of the movie theatre linked cases? Everyone, including me, thought these would be transmission sites. Doesn't appear to be the case, at least to a significant degree. This illustrates why you have to keep questioning your assumptions. https://bookandfilmglobe.com/film/where-are-all-the-movie-theater-covid-cases/
11. It takes 36 days on average to clear the virus from symptom onset using nasopharyngeal swabs. 36 days people. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e040380#article-bottom
12. 3 school districts in KC, MO:
*27,769 students and staff in attendance
*60 schools
*13 Positive Cases
*5 total weeks in attendance
Are we done yet with the school narrative?
13. WE HAVE LOST OUR MINDS! https://www.nj.com/education/2020/0...uarantine-after-covid-19-found-in-sewage.html
What in the absolute F#$$!!! Wait, I know, let's go around and check everyone's crap line into the city sewer and quarantine the houses that are positive! Let's use a crap PCR test on literal crap! Science! Even better is this little tidbit: "None of the students have reported any symptoms of the virus."
14. Can anyone explain Greece? Oldest population in the EU:
I can explain it, can you? Answer tomorrow... no prizes.
15. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...antly-surprising-virus-found-be-heat-tolerant
*Hungarian team finds virus particle withstands being probed by a nano needle 100 times, possibly making it the most physically elastic virus known
*French scientists find it can replicate in animal cells after being exposed to temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius for an hour
*This means CoV2 is uncontainable even by a BSL-3. Normal decontamination systems have no effect. 90C+10min did not cause perceivable inactivation. Chemicals do nothing to it. You can’t scrub it off, you can’t wash it and destroy it. UV light is required for inactivation or incineration. A microwave might work... I need to think on that. Even an autoclave probably doesn't kill it. And people thing it's natural... ok then.
This means one thing for sure, masks are useless. Cannot be contained by a BSL-3? Look up the BSL-3 protocols people! El oh el at the masks... the talisman of safety.
Conclusion: The concentration of aerosols generated by experimental activities and accidents in the BSL-3 laboratory cannot be ignored, and it will cause biological contamination and personnel infection risks.
I'll say it one more time: YOU CANNOT STOP IT. Thankfully, it will stop itself just like the other 200 respiratory pathogens.
Cheers RGers
