Testing Data
~813k tests yesterday.
~103 million total tests performed to date.
~37k positives with percentage positive at ~4.5%
7 day moving averages today--> 1 week ago--> 1 month ago:
980k tests --> 912k--> 766k
41.5k +'s--> 39.9k--> 40.1k
4.23% ---> 4.37%--> 5.35%
Interesting numbers there. There is a huge rise in tests with almost no change in month to month positives.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 29448--> 29915--> 30043--> 29769--> 29554--> 29432--> 29539--> 30391 (+3%)
ICU..... 6119----> 6109----> 6158----> 6133----> 6057----> 6080---> 5974---> 6106 (-0%)
Vent... 1551----> 1545-----> 1560---> 1506----> 1509-----> 1511-----> 1518----> 1495 (-4%)
Vents remain in decline. Again, slight rise in hospitalizations reflecting the rise in the plains and upper midwest.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 197,868 per CTP. 47.3% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 739 deaths today.
475--> 358-> 1022> 1021-> 1073-> 998--> 915 = 5862 (-10%)
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)
324--> 287--> 821-> 1138-> 940-> 844-> 866 = 5220 (-6%)
307--> 260-> 739
State Data
Mississippi. Deaths 36, 15 were legacy. 41.3% of deaths in NH's.
585 cases. 125 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 507--> 519--> 514--> 476--> 477--> 452--> 428--> 464 (-9%)
ICU... 148---> 149--> 143--> 147--> 133--> 146--> 134--> 138 (-7%)
Vent.. 74---> 74----> 84---> 73---> 68---> 64---> 63---> 67 (-9%)
I'm beginning to wonder how many of the LTC outbreaks are just dead virus being picked up by PCR at this point. The peak was late July, 3 months later would be late October. Something to watch as dead virus should start to become less of an issue soon. I'd think that 428 hospitalization number yesterday is a reporting issue and probably didn't reflect reality. Hospitalizations are now at 5/27 levels:
As posted earlier today, the only thing that matters:
Texas. Deaths, 71. 29% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3207--> 3195--> 3204--> 3221--> 3209--> 3217--> 3201--> 3251 (+2%)
Florida. Deaths, 106. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2319--> 2254--> 2169--> 2121--> 2099--> 2103--> 2122--> 2174 (-6%)
Georgia. Deaths, 33 . 37% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1406--> 1370--> 1371--> 1360--> 1303--> 1287--> 1319--> 1348 (-4%)
Alabama. Deaths, 16. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 796--> 768--> 744--> 718--> 706--> 741--> 753--> 773 (-3%).
California. Deaths, 32. 38% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3520--> 3557--> 3484--> 3307--> 3203--> 3129--> 3160--> 3223 (-9%)
Arkansas. Deaths, 21. 35% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 453--> 460--> 450--> 478--> 447--> 452--> 491--> 491 (+8%)
Tennessee. Deaths, 31. 26.5% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 766--> 794--> 708--> 762--> 740--> 728--> 768--> 795 (+4%)
South Carolina. Deaths, 22. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 768--> 786--> 804--> 773--> 737--> 724--> 753--> 690 (-10%)
North Carolina. Deaths, 49. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 905--> 912--> 902--> 903--> 904--> 917--> 897--> 950 (+1%)
Wisconsin (and the Plains). 17 deaths. 34% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 474--> 509--> 530--> 543--> 574--> 571--> 571--> 646 (+36%)
Still heading up in WI but growing at less speed. Inflection point was 9/2 which means peak should be somewhere between 10/2 and 10/10.
ICU numbers in ND are now declining with level hospitalizations. That state may be done and heading down soon.
SD is level here as well. No ICU metrics to follow.
Wyoming appears to be heading up and starting their 4 weeks of rise.
Other states I have been keeping an eye on. Hawaii appears to be done or close to it:
Iowa is trending up again and may get that double hump like MS and many of the southern states:
Again, these states are why hospitalizations have risen, of late, to a small degree. Get a few of these with the slowing declines in the south and the result is a small rise. Should level off once Florida and Texas begin their decline again.
Comments:
1. TN lifts all business restrictions. Does not supersede local mandates. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...ding-all-statewide-restrictions-on-businesses
So we now have FL, GA, SD, IN and TN. Maybe Tate is taking notes... a man can hope. Thank God for the governors of these states and for Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Switzerland. Why those as well? Do not forget, Finland followed Sweden pretty fast and Denmark admitted it was a mistake to not go the Sweden route and reversed course as well. Switzerland was opening up in May.
2. Even the Chinese-esqe state of Victoria is opening all primary schools. Very solid analysis and reasoning in this article. I've made these points many times myself.
theconversation.com
3. The IHME model is such a joke. My goodness look at these imbeciles:
Has there been anyone more wrong about more things than the IHME modeling group? Seriously, anyone?
4. Even the NY Times has to admit it. Sweden got it right. They don't come out and say it here but... they know. Everyone knows. "Lax strategy"? LOL. You mean all major prior pandemic strategies of the last few decades and those recommended by the European CDC, our CDC and the WHO as recently as 2019?
www.nytimes.com
5. Once again, Newsom is a tyrant and destroying California faster than fire ever could. https://www.wsj.com/articles/disneylands-reopening-date-remains-unclear-11601413802
6. I love Elon Musk... correct on all counts. https://nypost.com/2020/09/29/elon-musk-says-he-wont-take-coronavirus-vaccine/
7. The NFL knows about cycle thresholds. You want to know why they don't have any positives? Pretty obvious at this point:
Something else. If it's not pure theater for players and coaches to wears masks on the sidelines while having multiple negative tests... I'm not sure how you could otherwise define theater.
8. You want to see an example of selection bias? This from Stanford of all places.
med.stanford.edu
What is the problem with this study? 10% of persons tested had antibodies overall... of dialysis patients, from July. There is probably no worse patient population to study than those on dialysis. Tons of vitamin and mineral deficiency as well as metabolic derangements and probably the least likely population to have a robust antibody response. 10% actually seems like a good number for this patient population.
9. Almost 33,000 patients and staff in MA nursing homes. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157792v1
99.99% of the cumulative viral load was in persons with PCR Ct <27. PCR is a crap test.
10. As for the 2006 paper yesterday that mentioned SARS-CoV2? I don't know. Still looking into it but I found it fascinating.
Cheers RGers
~813k tests yesterday.
~103 million total tests performed to date.
~37k positives with percentage positive at ~4.5%
7 day moving averages today--> 1 week ago--> 1 month ago:
980k tests --> 912k--> 766k
41.5k +'s--> 39.9k--> 40.1k
4.23% ---> 4.37%--> 5.35%
Interesting numbers there. There is a huge rise in tests with almost no change in month to month positives.
Hospitalization Data
Hosp. 29448--> 29915--> 30043--> 29769--> 29554--> 29432--> 29539--> 30391 (+3%)
ICU..... 6119----> 6109----> 6158----> 6133----> 6057----> 6080---> 5974---> 6106 (-0%)
Vent... 1551----> 1545-----> 1560---> 1506----> 1509-----> 1511-----> 1518----> 1495 (-4%)
Vents remain in decline. Again, slight rise in hospitalizations reflecting the rise in the plains and upper midwest.
Fatality Data
Total deaths at 197,868 per CTP. 47.3% of all deaths are in nursing homes (NH). Weekly deaths as below by week (row), and day (column) starting with Sunday with a weekly total at the end and percent fall compared with prior week. 739 deaths today.
475--> 358-> 1022> 1021-> 1073-> 998--> 915 = 5862 (-10%)
449--> 225--> 358> 1089> 1170-> 1018-> 810 = 5119 (-13%)
389--> 404->1031> 1200-> 863-> 901--> 737 = 5525 (+8%)
324--> 287--> 821-> 1138-> 940-> 844-> 866 = 5220 (-6%)
307--> 260-> 739
State Data
Mississippi. Deaths 36, 15 were legacy. 41.3% of deaths in NH's.
585 cases. 125 LTC outbreaks.
Hosp 507--> 519--> 514--> 476--> 477--> 452--> 428--> 464 (-9%)
ICU... 148---> 149--> 143--> 147--> 133--> 146--> 134--> 138 (-7%)
Vent.. 74---> 74----> 84---> 73---> 68---> 64---> 63---> 67 (-9%)
I'm beginning to wonder how many of the LTC outbreaks are just dead virus being picked up by PCR at this point. The peak was late July, 3 months later would be late October. Something to watch as dead virus should start to become less of an issue soon. I'd think that 428 hospitalization number yesterday is a reporting issue and probably didn't reflect reality. Hospitalizations are now at 5/27 levels:
As posted earlier today, the only thing that matters:
Texas. Deaths, 71. 29% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 3207--> 3195--> 3204--> 3221--> 3209--> 3217--> 3201--> 3251 (+2%)
Florida. Deaths, 106. 41% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 2319--> 2254--> 2169--> 2121--> 2099--> 2103--> 2122--> 2174 (-6%)
Georgia. Deaths, 33 . 37% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 1406--> 1370--> 1371--> 1360--> 1303--> 1287--> 1319--> 1348 (-4%)
Alabama. Deaths, 16. 38% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 796--> 768--> 744--> 718--> 706--> 741--> 753--> 773 (-3%).
California. Deaths, 32. 38% of all deaths in NH's.
Hosp 3520--> 3557--> 3484--> 3307--> 3203--> 3129--> 3160--> 3223 (-9%)
Arkansas. Deaths, 21. 35% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 453--> 460--> 450--> 478--> 447--> 452--> 491--> 491 (+8%)
Tennessee. Deaths, 31. 26.5% of deaths in NH's
Hosp: 766--> 794--> 708--> 762--> 740--> 728--> 768--> 795 (+4%)
South Carolina. Deaths, 22. 40% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 768--> 786--> 804--> 773--> 737--> 724--> 753--> 690 (-10%)
North Carolina. Deaths, 49. 50% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 905--> 912--> 902--> 903--> 904--> 917--> 897--> 950 (+1%)
Wisconsin (and the Plains). 17 deaths. 34% of deaths in NH's.
Hosp: 474--> 509--> 530--> 543--> 574--> 571--> 571--> 646 (+36%)
Still heading up in WI but growing at less speed. Inflection point was 9/2 which means peak should be somewhere between 10/2 and 10/10.
ICU numbers in ND are now declining with level hospitalizations. That state may be done and heading down soon.
SD is level here as well. No ICU metrics to follow.
Wyoming appears to be heading up and starting their 4 weeks of rise.
Other states I have been keeping an eye on. Hawaii appears to be done or close to it:
Iowa is trending up again and may get that double hump like MS and many of the southern states:
Again, these states are why hospitalizations have risen, of late, to a small degree. Get a few of these with the slowing declines in the south and the result is a small rise. Should level off once Florida and Texas begin their decline again.
Comments:
1. TN lifts all business restrictions. Does not supersede local mandates. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...ding-all-statewide-restrictions-on-businesses
So we now have FL, GA, SD, IN and TN. Maybe Tate is taking notes... a man can hope. Thank God for the governors of these states and for Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Switzerland. Why those as well? Do not forget, Finland followed Sweden pretty fast and Denmark admitted it was a mistake to not go the Sweden route and reversed course as well. Switzerland was opening up in May.
2. Even the Chinese-esqe state of Victoria is opening all primary schools. Very solid analysis and reasoning in this article. I've made these points many times myself.
Behind Victoria’s decision to open primary schools to all students: report shows COVID transmission is rare
A new report shows out of 1 million students enrolled in all Victorian schools, only 337 may have acquired the virus through outbreaks at school.
theconversation.com
3. The IHME model is such a joke. My goodness look at these imbeciles:
Has there been anyone more wrong about more things than the IHME modeling group? Seriously, anyone?
4. Even the NY Times has to admit it. Sweden got it right. They don't come out and say it here but... they know. Everyone knows. "Lax strategy"? LOL. You mean all major prior pandemic strategies of the last few decades and those recommended by the European CDC, our CDC and the WHO as recently as 2019?
Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled
After having weathered high death rates when it resisted a lockdown in the spring, Sweden now has one of Europe’s lowest rates of daily new cases. Whether that is an aberration remains to be seen.
5. Once again, Newsom is a tyrant and destroying California faster than fire ever could. https://www.wsj.com/articles/disneylands-reopening-date-remains-unclear-11601413802
6. I love Elon Musk... correct on all counts. https://nypost.com/2020/09/29/elon-musk-says-he-wont-take-coronavirus-vaccine/
7. The NFL knows about cycle thresholds. You want to know why they don't have any positives? Pretty obvious at this point:
Something else. If it's not pure theater for players and coaches to wears masks on the sidelines while having multiple negative tests... I'm not sure how you could otherwise define theater.
8. You want to see an example of selection bias? This from Stanford of all places.
Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans have antibodies to coronavirus, study finds
In a nationally representative analysis of coronavirus antibodies, researchers also found high rates of infection among Black and Hispanic people, and in densely populated areas.
9. Almost 33,000 patients and staff in MA nursing homes. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157792v1
99.99% of the cumulative viral load was in persons with PCR Ct <27. PCR is a crap test.
10. As for the 2006 paper yesterday that mentioned SARS-CoV2? I don't know. Still looking into it but I found it fascinating.
Cheers RGers
