is going decidedly in one direction...pretty interesting article on the subject...
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
What the Early Vote in North
Carolina Means: A Daily Tracker
By NATE COHN UPDATED October 27, 2016
There aren’t many states more important this November than North Carolina, a rapidly changing state crucial to Donald J. Trump’s hopes of winning the White House and to Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate.
There also aren’t many states with better election data than North Carolina. The state releases detailed, individual-level information on every voter in the state. It even publishes a daily account of who has voted early, either in person or by mail.
To get a better sense of what’s going on, we’re trying an experiment: We’re estimating the result of the early vote and the Election Day vote by combining the rich data released by North Carolina with data from the Upshot/Siena survey of North Carolina.
Already, about 968,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,413,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 22 percentage points – among people who have already voted.
article continues....
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
What the Early Vote in North
Carolina Means: A Daily Tracker
By NATE COHN UPDATED October 27, 2016
There aren’t many states more important this November than North Carolina, a rapidly changing state crucial to Donald J. Trump’s hopes of winning the White House and to Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate.
There also aren’t many states with better election data than North Carolina. The state releases detailed, individual-level information on every voter in the state. It even publishes a daily account of who has voted early, either in person or by mail.
To get a better sense of what’s going on, we’re trying an experiment: We’re estimating the result of the early vote and the Election Day vote by combining the rich data released by North Carolina with data from the Upshot/Siena survey of North Carolina.
Already, about 968,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,413,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 22 percentage points – among people who have already voted.
article continues....
