I’ve been following this one, not because I think it’s most accurate, but mainly to watch how our probabilities shift, and because you can plug in scenarios to run probabilities.
Before Tuesday’s ranking, it had us at a 62% chance to make it and 86% chance if we win out.
After the rankings, that bumped to 67% and 89%.
I still think they’re a little too low on us and probably a bit high on a few others, but we do continue to trend up.
Interestingly, they have UT at essentially the same probability as us despite the fact that the committee ranking might suggest otherwise.
A few other interesting notes:
Texas - If you assume Texas beats Kentucky but loses to A&M, they give them only a 62% chance to make the playoff, which is significantly less than our 89% for finishing an identical 10-2.
Penn State - If PSU loses this week to Minnesota and finishes 10-2, they drop them to only a 54% chance to make the field.
Notre Dame - As you might expect, they drop to a 42% chance to make it with a loss to USC and a 30% chance if they take a single loss to Army.
Ohio State - If OSU were to lose to Michigan or Indiana, they have them either at an 83% or 87% chance to make it at 10-2. I just found that interesting since it’s also less than our 89%.
Miami - They show Miami with a 42% chance to make it if they win out but lose to SMU in the conference title game. That’s the highest odds of a team not in the Power 2 to potentially get an at large, aside from Notre Dame of course.
Before Tuesday’s ranking, it had us at a 62% chance to make it and 86% chance if we win out.
After the rankings, that bumped to 67% and 89%.
I still think they’re a little too low on us and probably a bit high on a few others, but we do continue to trend up.
Interestingly, they have UT at essentially the same probability as us despite the fact that the committee ranking might suggest otherwise.
A few other interesting notes:
Texas - If you assume Texas beats Kentucky but loses to A&M, they give them only a 62% chance to make the playoff, which is significantly less than our 89% for finishing an identical 10-2.
Penn State - If PSU loses this week to Minnesota and finishes 10-2, they drop them to only a 54% chance to make the field.
Notre Dame - As you might expect, they drop to a 42% chance to make it with a loss to USC and a 30% chance if they take a single loss to Army.
Ohio State - If OSU were to lose to Michigan or Indiana, they have them either at an 83% or 87% chance to make it at 10-2. I just found that interesting since it’s also less than our 89%.
Miami - They show Miami with a 42% chance to make it if they win out but lose to SMU in the conference title game. That’s the highest odds of a team not in the Power 2 to potentially get an at large, aside from Notre Dame of course.
