I’m not sure that most people realize that, and clearly most coaches don’t yet either.
When you’re down 14 and score to cut it to 1 score, analytics tell you to go for 2. I thought Hugh might do it, which would’ve really screwed with the -6.5 line.
For those that don’t get the numbers, if you assume you’re going to score both TDs, and you assume 2 point conversions are about a coin flip, which numbers say is true, then you should go for 2 the first time.
Reason why is that if you assume you get both scores, going for it on the first time gives you a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of tying, and a 25% chance of losing.
If you assume OT is 50/50, then going for two the first time gives you a 62.5% chance of winning and a 37.5% chance of losing.
Kicking both XPs, gives you a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing.
When you’re down 14 and score to cut it to 1 score, analytics tell you to go for 2. I thought Hugh might do it, which would’ve really screwed with the -6.5 line.
For those that don’t get the numbers, if you assume you’re going to score both TDs, and you assume 2 point conversions are about a coin flip, which numbers say is true, then you should go for 2 the first time.
Reason why is that if you assume you get both scores, going for it on the first time gives you a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of tying, and a 25% chance of losing.
If you assume OT is 50/50, then going for two the first time gives you a 62.5% chance of winning and a 37.5% chance of losing.
Kicking both XPs, gives you a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing.
