| President | House | Senate | Likelihood | Likelihood analysis |
| R | D | R | High ••••• | Presidential race is a toss up; Democrats have a chance to regain control of the House, but GOP will likely flip the Senate |
| D | D | R | High ••••• | Presidential race is a toss up; Democrats have a chance to regain control of the House, but GOP will likely flip the Senate |
| R | R | R | Medium ••••• | GOP has a chance to win control of Congress |
| D | R | R | Medium ••••• | GOP has a chance to win control of Congress, but it’s less likely for Democrats to win the presidency and lose both chambers of Congress |
| R | R | D | Low ••••• | Democrats will struggle to retain Senate control; unlikely that GOP would win the presidency and House but fail to flip the Senate |
| D | R | D | Low ••••• | Democrats will struggle to retain Senate control; unlikely that GOP would win House control but fail to flip the Senate |
| R | D | D | Very Low ••••• | Highly unlikely for Democrats to lose the presidency but win both chambers of Congress |
| D | D | D | Very Low ••••• | Democrats are unlikely to win both chambers of Congress |
This slide was made by Charlie Cook of National Journal and shows the likelihood of potential election outcomes. As the table shows, the likelihood of the house and senate to both flip is pretty high given the razor thin margins both parties have in control of both houses (Rs in House and Ds in Senate) combined with the number of tossup races in both chambers. We will see how long the coattails are of either presidential candidate in two weeks but Charlie seems to think both are short. This may be short-sighted. I think Republicans have a much better chance of taking the senate than Democrats have of taking the House. However, this still shows it's likely and maybe probable that regardless of who wins the White House, there will likely be a divided congress.
The last time a non-incumbent president won the White House and faced a divided Congress, with neither party controlling both chambers, was in 1884, when Grover Cleveland was elected president. Cleveland, a Democrat, won the presidency, but the 49th Congress (1885–1887) was divided:
- The Democrats controlled the House of Representatives.
- The Republicans controlled the Senate.
