A friend shared this with me. It's very interesting and likely enlightening for the people who are questioning guys like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi when they put 12-13 SEC teams in the field.
Here is the list of teams in college basketball that has not lost a game outside of Quad 1 (which is a home game against a top 30 team, a neutral site game against a top 50 team or a road game against a top 75 team):
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama
Missouri
St. John's
Ole Miss
Georgia
Indiana
The first six of those are going to be the top six seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri and St. John's are top-15 teams that people have discussed as having Final Four potential.
Ole Miss is a potential Sweet 16 team and if it gets a break, who knows?
Georgia and Indiana are probably surprises on this list, but the absence of a bad loss shows you why they're in tournament contention despite overall records that aren't overly impressive.
NCAA Tournament seeding is about two things: Getting good wins and avoiding bad losses. The top six teams on that list are a combined 55-24 in Quad 1 games (including a ridiculous 16-2 from Auburn). It's the reason they've separated themselves from everyone else. They beat all of the mediocre to bad teams and most of the best teams. Here is the Quad 1 record of the rest of the list:
Mizzou: 6-8
St. John's: 3-4
Ole Miss: 5-9
Georgia: 4-11
Indiana: 4-11
So why are Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas still in the mix despite awful conference records? Three reasons:
1. It's a 68-team field. You have to field 68 teams.
2. They have no bad losses. Check out the ACC, Big East, Mountain West and some of the other leagues that once got half their conference in the field regularly. They have teams with atrocious losses. The SEC simply doesn't. The SEC is 101-1 against Quad 4. It is 45-1 against Quad 3.
3. The SEC has a ton of good wins. Good wins matter. The league dominated the non-conference and then ate away at itself. Still, metrically, it's very good. It's a wild 67-17 against Quad 2 opponents.
Here is the list of teams in college basketball that has not lost a game outside of Quad 1 (which is a home game against a top 30 team, a neutral site game against a top 50 team or a road game against a top 75 team):
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama
Missouri
St. John's
Ole Miss
Georgia
Indiana
The first six of those are going to be the top six seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri and St. John's are top-15 teams that people have discussed as having Final Four potential.
Ole Miss is a potential Sweet 16 team and if it gets a break, who knows?
Georgia and Indiana are probably surprises on this list, but the absence of a bad loss shows you why they're in tournament contention despite overall records that aren't overly impressive.
NCAA Tournament seeding is about two things: Getting good wins and avoiding bad losses. The top six teams on that list are a combined 55-24 in Quad 1 games (including a ridiculous 16-2 from Auburn). It's the reason they've separated themselves from everyone else. They beat all of the mediocre to bad teams and most of the best teams. Here is the Quad 1 record of the rest of the list:
Mizzou: 6-8
St. John's: 3-4
Ole Miss: 5-9
Georgia: 4-11
Indiana: 4-11
So why are Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas still in the mix despite awful conference records? Three reasons:
1. It's a 68-team field. You have to field 68 teams.
2. They have no bad losses. Check out the ACC, Big East, Mountain West and some of the other leagues that once got half their conference in the field regularly. They have teams with atrocious losses. The SEC simply doesn't. The SEC is 101-1 against Quad 4. It is 45-1 against Quad 3.
3. The SEC has a ton of good wins. Good wins matter. The league dominated the non-conference and then ate away at itself. Still, metrically, it's very good. It's a wild 67-17 against Quad 2 opponents.
