First, some stats and advanced metrics -- ERA, BAA, WHIP, OPS
Elliot, to compare: 3.12/.217/1.15/.667
Nichols: 4.82/.245/1.21/.724
Hooks: 2.55/.209/1.02/.552
Morris: 3.38/.208/1.27/.667
Here's where it gets interesting
McCausland: 7.23/.304/1.50/.897
Maddox: 7.27/.290/1.65/.822
Calhoun: 7.27/.167/1.02/.672
Rodriguez: 2.25/.300/1.38/.718
Canney: 1.64/.244/1.36/.714
Waters: 6.75/.216/1.12/.920
So, looking at the above, it looks like we are probably due for a change in bullpen rotation. There are guys who are getting more run but don't have the data to back them up -- with the use of advanced metrics and other data being a publicly discussed sticking point this last offseason with the new pitching coach.
Rotation:
Elliot
Nichols
Hooks
Primary Pen Arms -- based on the above:
Morris -- solid and I think they'll improve over season usage
Rodriguez -- need a LHP if Hooks is in the rotation, and his metrics support more usage
Canney -- one of the better arms, but typically pitches no more than 2 innings
Calhoun -- head scratcher... his metrics are borderline elite so far but minimal usage in high leverage spots
Waters -- same as Calhoun...his OPS is high because he gave up a couple HRs recently, but his WHIP and BAA are really good. K/BB rate is outstanding also
And obviously Spencer late -- his numbers are pretty good as well and don't dictate a change in usage.
The rest of the guys who have gotten usage (Maddox, Jones, McCausland, Dennis, Townsend, Rabe) don't have any performance metric to indicate usage until the above show they can't hold these lines and should be pushed to midweek and spot duty. Maddox probably needs to be the midweek starter and possible 1 inning usage on the weekend.
Elliot, to compare: 3.12/.217/1.15/.667
Nichols: 4.82/.245/1.21/.724
Hooks: 2.55/.209/1.02/.552
Morris: 3.38/.208/1.27/.667
Here's where it gets interesting
McCausland: 7.23/.304/1.50/.897
Maddox: 7.27/.290/1.65/.822
Calhoun: 7.27/.167/1.02/.672
Rodriguez: 2.25/.300/1.38/.718
Canney: 1.64/.244/1.36/.714
Waters: 6.75/.216/1.12/.920
So, looking at the above, it looks like we are probably due for a change in bullpen rotation. There are guys who are getting more run but don't have the data to back them up -- with the use of advanced metrics and other data being a publicly discussed sticking point this last offseason with the new pitching coach.
Rotation:
Elliot
Nichols
Hooks
Primary Pen Arms -- based on the above:
Morris -- solid and I think they'll improve over season usage
Rodriguez -- need a LHP if Hooks is in the rotation, and his metrics support more usage
Canney -- one of the better arms, but typically pitches no more than 2 innings
Calhoun -- head scratcher... his metrics are borderline elite so far but minimal usage in high leverage spots
Waters -- same as Calhoun...his OPS is high because he gave up a couple HRs recently, but his WHIP and BAA are really good. K/BB rate is outstanding also
And obviously Spencer late -- his numbers are pretty good as well and don't dictate a change in usage.
The rest of the guys who have gotten usage (Maddox, Jones, McCausland, Dennis, Townsend, Rabe) don't have any performance metric to indicate usage until the above show they can't hold these lines and should be pushed to midweek and spot duty. Maddox probably needs to be the midweek starter and possible 1 inning usage on the weekend.
