From the Athletic this morning. Thoughts?
Florida State went into last season with a lot of hype, and we know what happened. Is this something you expect to happen regularly in the era of the transfer portal and NIL? Is there a highly regarded team you think might face-plant this year the way FSU did? — Mike H.
I do expect it to happen regularly, although probably not to the extent of FSU, falling from 13-1 to 2-10. That feels like a once-in-20-years type phenomenon.
Two things that are nearly impossible for someone outside a program to quantify are culture and chemistry. FSU lost a whole lot of both when that core group of leaders, including Jordan Travis and Jared Verse, headed off to the NFL. In the old days, teams would have players who learned from them and were ready to take over when their turn came. But that’s more difficult than ever for coaches because some of the young players who don’t play right away go into the transfer portal, and the incoming players might not mesh well with the incumbents.
On paper, the team that most closely resembles FSU this time last year is Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost nearly every key leader from their national title team, plus both coordinators. And yet we all just assume they’ll be fine because it’s Ohio State. But there’s one huge difference between the two: Ohio State has been successfully reloading for more than 20 years. FSU had just a two-year run under Mike Norvell before everything imploded.
I feel confident saying Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs and friends will not go 2-10.
I’d also keep an eye on Oregon, where Dan Lanning has been leaning heavily on the portal for several years, particularly at quarterback. It has worked, but he could very well have a year where they just whiff on a bunch of those transfers. Maybe it will be this year.
And then there’s Ole Miss, where I’m not sure Lane Kiffin is even trying to develop his own players at this point. Last year’s 9-3 team started as many as 17 transfers, including stars like Jaxson Dart and Jared Ivey who were there for multiple seasons, most of whom have moved on. And now comes a whole new class of transfers to take their place. I could see it producing double-digit starters, especially on defense.
Ole Miss is my early leader to go from 10 wins to missing a bowl entirely. But there will be others.
Florida State went into last season with a lot of hype, and we know what happened. Is this something you expect to happen regularly in the era of the transfer portal and NIL? Is there a highly regarded team you think might face-plant this year the way FSU did? — Mike H.
I do expect it to happen regularly, although probably not to the extent of FSU, falling from 13-1 to 2-10. That feels like a once-in-20-years type phenomenon.
Two things that are nearly impossible for someone outside a program to quantify are culture and chemistry. FSU lost a whole lot of both when that core group of leaders, including Jordan Travis and Jared Verse, headed off to the NFL. In the old days, teams would have players who learned from them and were ready to take over when their turn came. But that’s more difficult than ever for coaches because some of the young players who don’t play right away go into the transfer portal, and the incoming players might not mesh well with the incumbents.
On paper, the team that most closely resembles FSU this time last year is Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost nearly every key leader from their national title team, plus both coordinators. And yet we all just assume they’ll be fine because it’s Ohio State. But there’s one huge difference between the two: Ohio State has been successfully reloading for more than 20 years. FSU had just a two-year run under Mike Norvell before everything imploded.
I feel confident saying Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs and friends will not go 2-10.
I’d also keep an eye on Oregon, where Dan Lanning has been leaning heavily on the portal for several years, particularly at quarterback. It has worked, but he could very well have a year where they just whiff on a bunch of those transfers. Maybe it will be this year.
And then there’s Ole Miss, where I’m not sure Lane Kiffin is even trying to develop his own players at this point. Last year’s 9-3 team started as many as 17 transfers, including stars like Jaxson Dart and Jared Ivey who were there for multiple seasons, most of whom have moved on. And now comes a whole new class of transfers to take their place. I could see it producing double-digit starters, especially on defense.
Ole Miss is my early leader to go from 10 wins to missing a bowl entirely. But there will be others.
