Season Recap:
2014 was another successful "picking against the spread for entertainment purposes only unless you live in the state of Nevada" season. In you are wondering and/or care, the picks were ~60% correct last year, which was slightly below the ridiculous ~66% clip from 2013. These are not sweet brags, and I'm only posting these figures because it's hilarious how lucky we’ve been, and despite my confidence in picking CFB, these numbers are always going to be difficult to replicate.
Now that undersell / hopefully over-deliver is complete, let's move on to some season outlooks where you can hopefully achieve some value in the "picks against the spread" market. DISCLAIMER: I don't participate in backroom chats with Vegas insiders, I don't belong to any gambling syndicates, I've never paid someone for a pick, and I don't tail Twitter touts. I just use my eyeballs and stick to simple tenets that can help achieve value.
Overrated/Underrated:
Last year I was able to successfully label a few teams that you want to avoid in the market, mostly due to public perception (FSU, UCLA, Auburn) which all worked out well because all of those teams were atrocious ATS. If you are looking at the futures market, I encourage you to look at teams that finished on a high or low last year. Bowl games can often severely over-inflate or diminish public perceptions for next season, use that to your advantage.
Overrated:
Arkansas – Media and public darlings this offseason, which usually means the team will disappoint in the upcoming year. I’m a big fan of Bielema, however the hype surrounding Arky this year is crazy if you look at their overall talent level. Arkansas is perennially the worst team recruiting-wise in the SEC West, yet for some reason people are picking them to win the division. Last time I checked, talent wins the SEC, not a system. Fade Arky against legitimate competition, especially early in the season. Their schedule sets up nicely for them which keeps me from pulling the trigger on the O/U 8-win total.
Alabama – Overrated because Vegas still power rates them closer to 2009-2013 dynasty levels, which is incorrect. The low ceiling of their offense tells me they won’t cover big point spreads. Fade all day until proven otherwise.
Ohio State – As a team, they are legitimately the best in CFB. However, from a ATS perspective, value should reside on the other side of the fence. Ohio State will be giant favorites on all games this year, but asking a team to mentally be ready to repeat the success of their 2nd half of their season is a tall order. I remember Ohio State struggling with the likes of Indiana late last season. Looking at advanced stats, their offense (especially QB play) isn’t nearly as consistent as the late season and playoffs will lead you believe. Clearly deserving of the #1 ranking and the schedule is a joke (only facing 1 Top 25 team potentially), but look to fade Ohio State all season long.
Underrated:
Texas A&M – TAMU beat Auburn last year in Auburn, yet they are receiving little hype this offseason. TAMU is a recurring member in the Top 10 of recruiting rankings for years now, yet people are picking them 6/7th in the SEC West. That is stupid considering the Sumlin/Chavis duo is potentially amazing if you think about it. TAMU returns a blossoming QB, tons of weapons @ WR, a serviceable OL, and the defense has enough talent to be average next year with Chavis.
Ole Miss – Experience @ QB is one of the most overrated preseason predictors in college football. Everyone still remembers the TCU debacle. The defense should be great, but the schedule is kind of brutal. Luckily the depth is better, which makes the schedule more manageable. I’ve already locked in over 8.5 wins for the season. This teams reminds me of 2014 Clemson, the defense is that good.
Oklahoma – Here is another opportunity to back a team where the public remembers a terrible bowl loss (Zach Stoudt and Clemson destroyed them). Oklahoma is a team loaded with talent (always recruits in the Top 10) and plays in a conference where good defense isn’t always easy to find. Something tells me that over 8.5 wins is a good place to be, despite the tough schedule.
Week 1 Picks of the Week
Full disclosure, the card this week is a mess. I hate all of these games, yet it’s Week 1 and I can’t resist dropping clams and making some picks (#firstworldproblems). If you are the type that is reading this just to tail plays, you probably won’t enjoy some of these “hold your nose” picks on teams that kind of suck.
Alabama/Wisconsin – Under 51.5 points.
Wisconsin will have trouble consistently moving the ball and Alabama will be vanilla in this game. Unless a bunch of weird pick sixes/fumble sixes happen, seems like the right side.
Va Tech +13 vs Ohio State (Monday)
Read my overrated/underrated section to understand why you want to be on the side of the Hokies in a game like this. Night games in Blacksburg have that certain kind of magic, and Bud Foster knows how to stop mickey mouse Urban Meyer offenses. The public will be pounding Ohio State hard since this is a Monday night game in an attempt to recoup weekend losses, so wait to see if you can get a +14 if you like it.
Notre Dame -10 vs. Texas
If Notre Dame’s schedule wasn’t so brutal I would be all over them on the futures market. The program is completely all Brian Kelly now, and the offensive weapons are plentiful. The team also features a lot of talent in the trenches, which is usually where you want to be early in the season. Simply out, this is a talent mismatch (Texas still in full rebuild mode – Strong blew it all up) and Texas just isn’t ready to keep up with a high-powered offense like ND. This game seems like a trap, but I’ll fall right in bc I’m high on ND.
Central Michigan +24.5 vs Oklahoma State (Thursday)
OSU is looking to reassert its claim near the top of the Big 12 after a meh 2014, but they are still probably a year or so away. Obviously we have a big talent mismatch here, but the Thursday night home crowd should be enough to at least back-door cover this one.
Minnesota +17 vs. TCU (Thursday)
Another “hold your nose” pick. Public is pounding TCU, and rightfully so, they are a sexy team with a high-powered offense. However, fading the public is rarely a bad idea. Thursday night home dog in CFB is usually a winning proposition. TCU has a lot of defensive players to replace, and I expect them to be a bit sluggish in the early season. Wait until kickoff and see if this gets to 17.5 if you like it. It's one of those games that will torment you if it loses, so I wouldn't go too crazy with this one.
Welp, that was not overly exciting. A lot of this week is learning about teams, therefore a lot of these picks are just based on betting information, and as per usual, staying away from the hive mind that is the public. Don’t go too wild Week 1 due to so many unknowns, it's a long season – good luck and post your picks.
