I decided to stop putting dates on these and I'll just start updating this thread when I get around to it.
Posting this reference info from free picks that have been doing pretty decent.
Go hit my referral link: https://pages.viral-loops.com/sportsense-entertainment-wh2ihthc?referralCode=nwigrcl&refSource=copy and I can check out what else he's got and share here.
What do the gamblers think about his picks for today?
I don't know about the Memphis game.
Model Predicts- Cavaliers -2.5, OVER 223
The Play- OVER 223
Model Predicts- Wichita State +3, OVER 146.5
The Play- Wichita State +3
Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday was a day of mixed reuslts for our models, as the NCAA model posted a winning record but the NHL model fell victim to the three-game slate. However, 3-star plays were 1-0 on the day and remained on fire.
The NBA is officially back after the All-Star break, giving us a bunch more model predictions to look at again in addition to the NCAA and NHL. Two of today’s predictions have been given 3-stars, with one coming in the NBA and the other coming in the NCAA.
The Denver Nuggets will resume play after the All-Star break as the No.1 seed in the Western Conference, rising to the top of the standings because of their elite play on the offensive end of the floor.
NBA.com has the Nuggets ranked first in the NBA in Offensive Rating at 117.3, 0.3 points ahead of Sacramento in second. That has been achieved largely because of Denver's tremendous shooting efficiency, as the Nuggets are shooting 51.2% from the floor overall and 39.2% from three. Denver ranks first in the NBA in both of those categories.
However, even though Denver has ripped opposing defenses apart it has also struggled on the defensive end.
Through 59 games Denver has posted a Defensive Rating of 113.2, putting itself in the middle of the pack this season. The reason that rating is right at the league average is because Denver plays excellent defense while at home, but on the road the Nuggets become a non-factor on the defensive end.
As seen in the chart below the Nuggets’ Defensive Rating slides 7.3 points per 100 possessions to 117.0 on the road when compared to its rating at home (109.7). That sort of regression is due to the fact that Denver ranks 29th in the NBA in Opponent Field Goal % on the road this season (50.1%), simultaneously allowing its opponents to shoot 37.3% from behind the arc. Both of those numbers are more than 4.00% worse when compared to the teams’ defensive statistics at home, showing that the Nuggets are easily exposed at multiple levels as the road team.
Stats from NBA.com and teamrankings.com
There are zero questions about Denver’s offense, but there are still plenty of question marks surrounding this team's vulnerability on the defensive end.
On the other end of the court we have the Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that suffered a loss to the 76ers in their last game before the All-Star break. However, prior to that loss Cleveland was red hot, ripping off seven straight wins.
That seven game stretch was likely Cleveland's best stretch of basketball this season. According to NBA.com the Cavaliers posted a Net Rating of 16.5 in those seven games, exactly 8.0 points higher than the next closest team and nearly an 11.0 point improvement from Cleveland’s season Net Rating of 5.8.
Stats from NBA.com
That impressive Net Rating came about as a result of many improvements, but perhaps the most important improvement for Cleveland came on the offensive end of the floor.
For the season the Cavaliers own an Offensive Rating of 115.0, but in the their seven games prior to the 76ers loss that rating soared more than five points to 120.2. That 5.2 point increase came as a result of Cleveland dominating down low, scoring an average of 60.9 points per game in the paint which is up from the teams' season average of 52.2 (TeamRankings).
The Cavaliers went into the break hot on the offensive end, and they have a great matchup on their hands in this one to continue that dominance.
All in all we have two great offensive teams going head-to-head, and as a result I like both teams to find the bottom of the basket in bunches tonight.
It is no secret that Cleveland is one of the best defenses in the NBA, as evidenced by having the league's best Defensive Rating (109.3). However, we already saw Denver have success against the Cavaliers once this season, scoring 121 points against them back on January 6, 2023.
Additionally, some trends suggest that this will likely be a high-scoring game. According to TeamRankings the over is 15-13 in road games for the Nuggets, and it is 7-4 when the Nuggets are an underdog on the road.
Even with Aaron Gordon listed as out and Jamal Murray questionable, I expect Denver to put up similar numbers to what we saw in its first matchup with Cleveland, and I don’t see a world in which Cleveland doesn’t light up a poor Denver defense.
Expect a back and forth contest that leads to a high score.
Model Predicts- Cavaliers -2.5, OVER 223
The Play- OVER 223
Memphis is one of the more high-powered offenses in the nation this season. According to TeamRankings the Tigers rank 15th in the nation in points per game with 79.9, and KenPom has Memphis ranked 45th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
A large reason why Memphis’ offensive output is so high is because this team plays at a very fast pace. Through 27 games the Tigers have produced an average of 76.0 offensive possessions per game, a number that ranks 7th in the NCAA this season. That has allowed Memphis’ shot volume to spike, and as result this squad ranks inside the top 50 in shot attempts per game as well.
However, if it wasn’t for that quick pace then Memphis would likely be nowhere near the top of the NCAA in so many offensive categories.
As seen in the chart below Memphis is not a very efficient team on the road this season. According to TeamRankings the Tigers are shooting 4.90% worse from the floor overall as the road team, and that is complimented with shooting only 32% from behind the arc. Their struggles from three have been evident all season long as Memphis ranks 201st in the nation in Three-Point % (33.7%).
To make matters worse for Memphis, it’s best offensive player, Kendric Davis, is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Davis does it all for this team, averaging 21.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game this season.
We recently saw what Davis’ his absence can do to this offense, as Memphis’ most recent game was a loss to Houston. Just like tonight’s matchup, that game was played on the road and as we already know the Tigers struggle a bit in those situations. In that game Memphis scored 64 points, nearly 15 points less than their season average on the road, and shot 44% from the floor overall.
Wichita State isn’t the most threatening offensive team in the NCAA, but with Davis potentially being out of the lineup the Shockers will have plenty of things working in their favor.
As seen in the chart below Wichita State owns a very good transition offense. As a team the Shockers are scoring 10.3 fast break points per game, shooting an incredible 90.0% from the floor overall while on the break. That is going to help offset any points scored by a fast-paced Memphis team that loves to get
out in transition
State from CBB Analytics
Additionally, the Shockers are a very effective offense in the painted area, scoring 32.8 points per game and shooting 55.5% from that area of the floor. According to HoopMath 61.8% of Wichita State’s shots come at the rim, and as seen below Memphis surrenders a decent amount of shots at the rim and allows its opponents to shoot 54.7% on those shots. It’s likely we see Wichita State continue its dominance in the paint.
Stats from HoopMath
All in all I think Kendric Davis potentially missing this matchup is all the reason to bet on Wichita State while the spread is still at three points, and even if Davis plays I think the Shockers will still be in good shape on their home floor.
As seen in the chart above from CBB Analytics Wichita State is in the 79th percentile in Defensive Rating, surrendering 100.3 points per 100 possessions. This team is very good defensively, and according to TeamRankings the Shockers rank 13th in the NCAA in Opponent Field Goal % (39.8%). That percentage falls even more when Wichita State plays at home, where it is holding its opponents to shooting just 38.7%.
I really like what Wichita State brings to the table, and I agree with the model that they can cover the spread here.
Model Predicts- Wichita State +3, OVER 146.5
The Play- Wichita State +3
Posting this reference info from free picks that have been doing pretty decent.
Go hit my referral link: https://pages.viral-loops.com/sportsense-entertainment-wh2ihthc?referralCode=nwigrcl&refSource=copy and I can check out what else he's got and share here.
What do the gamblers think about his picks for today?
I don't know about the Memphis game.
Model Predicts- Cavaliers -2.5, OVER 223
The Play- OVER 223
Model Predicts- Wichita State +3, OVER 146.5
The Play- Wichita State +3
Yesterday’s Model Recap
Yesterday was a day of mixed reuslts for our models, as the NCAA model posted a winning record but the NHL model fell victim to the three-game slate. However, 3-star plays were 1-0 on the day and remained on fire.
Recap Summary
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The NBA is officially back after the All-Star break, giving us a bunch more model predictions to look at again in addition to the NCAA and NHL. Two of today’s predictions have been given 3-stars, with one coming in the NBA and the other coming in the NCAA.
NBA Predictions
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Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
The Denver Nuggets will play their first game post All-Star break on Thursday night when the team takes on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams have played excellent basketball this season and are primed for an NBA Finals run after a well-deserved break, but I am more concerned with the total in tonight’s matchup as I think both teams have a great opportunity to run up the score.The Denver Nuggets will resume play after the All-Star break as the No.1 seed in the Western Conference, rising to the top of the standings because of their elite play on the offensive end of the floor.
NBA.com has the Nuggets ranked first in the NBA in Offensive Rating at 117.3, 0.3 points ahead of Sacramento in second. That has been achieved largely because of Denver's tremendous shooting efficiency, as the Nuggets are shooting 51.2% from the floor overall and 39.2% from three. Denver ranks first in the NBA in both of those categories.
However, even though Denver has ripped opposing defenses apart it has also struggled on the defensive end.
Through 59 games Denver has posted a Defensive Rating of 113.2, putting itself in the middle of the pack this season. The reason that rating is right at the league average is because Denver plays excellent defense while at home, but on the road the Nuggets become a non-factor on the defensive end.
As seen in the chart below the Nuggets’ Defensive Rating slides 7.3 points per 100 possessions to 117.0 on the road when compared to its rating at home (109.7). That sort of regression is due to the fact that Denver ranks 29th in the NBA in Opponent Field Goal % on the road this season (50.1%), simultaneously allowing its opponents to shoot 37.3% from behind the arc. Both of those numbers are more than 4.00% worse when compared to the teams’ defensive statistics at home, showing that the Nuggets are easily exposed at multiple levels as the road team.
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There are zero questions about Denver’s offense, but there are still plenty of question marks surrounding this team's vulnerability on the defensive end.
On the other end of the court we have the Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that suffered a loss to the 76ers in their last game before the All-Star break. However, prior to that loss Cleveland was red hot, ripping off seven straight wins.
That seven game stretch was likely Cleveland's best stretch of basketball this season. According to NBA.com the Cavaliers posted a Net Rating of 16.5 in those seven games, exactly 8.0 points higher than the next closest team and nearly an 11.0 point improvement from Cleveland’s season Net Rating of 5.8.
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That impressive Net Rating came about as a result of many improvements, but perhaps the most important improvement for Cleveland came on the offensive end of the floor.
For the season the Cavaliers own an Offensive Rating of 115.0, but in the their seven games prior to the 76ers loss that rating soared more than five points to 120.2. That 5.2 point increase came as a result of Cleveland dominating down low, scoring an average of 60.9 points per game in the paint which is up from the teams' season average of 52.2 (TeamRankings).
The Cavaliers went into the break hot on the offensive end, and they have a great matchup on their hands in this one to continue that dominance.
All in all we have two great offensive teams going head-to-head, and as a result I like both teams to find the bottom of the basket in bunches tonight.
It is no secret that Cleveland is one of the best defenses in the NBA, as evidenced by having the league's best Defensive Rating (109.3). However, we already saw Denver have success against the Cavaliers once this season, scoring 121 points against them back on January 6, 2023.
Additionally, some trends suggest that this will likely be a high-scoring game. According to TeamRankings the over is 15-13 in road games for the Nuggets, and it is 7-4 when the Nuggets are an underdog on the road.
Even with Aaron Gordon listed as out and Jamal Murray questionable, I expect Denver to put up similar numbers to what we saw in its first matchup with Cleveland, and I don’t see a world in which Cleveland doesn’t light up a poor Denver defense.
Expect a back and forth contest that leads to a high score.
Model Predicts- Cavaliers -2.5, OVER 223
The Play- OVER 223
NCAAB Predictions
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Memphis @ Wichita State
The Memphis Tigers will hit the road to take on Wichita State in an AAC battle this evening. The last time these two teams faced off the final score was 88-78 in favor of Memphis, but tonight’s matchup has a few factors present in it that we did not see back on January 19th. As a result, I agree with the model that Wichita State can cover the short three-point spread as a home underdog.Memphis is one of the more high-powered offenses in the nation this season. According to TeamRankings the Tigers rank 15th in the nation in points per game with 79.9, and KenPom has Memphis ranked 45th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
A large reason why Memphis’ offensive output is so high is because this team plays at a very fast pace. Through 27 games the Tigers have produced an average of 76.0 offensive possessions per game, a number that ranks 7th in the NCAA this season. That has allowed Memphis’ shot volume to spike, and as result this squad ranks inside the top 50 in shot attempts per game as well.
However, if it wasn’t for that quick pace then Memphis would likely be nowhere near the top of the NCAA in so many offensive categories.
As seen in the chart below Memphis is not a very efficient team on the road this season. According to TeamRankings the Tigers are shooting 4.90% worse from the floor overall as the road team, and that is complimented with shooting only 32% from behind the arc. Their struggles from three have been evident all season long as Memphis ranks 201st in the nation in Three-Point % (33.7%).
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We recently saw what Davis’ his absence can do to this offense, as Memphis’ most recent game was a loss to Houston. Just like tonight’s matchup, that game was played on the road and as we already know the Tigers struggle a bit in those situations. In that game Memphis scored 64 points, nearly 15 points less than their season average on the road, and shot 44% from the floor overall.
Wichita State isn’t the most threatening offensive team in the NCAA, but with Davis potentially being out of the lineup the Shockers will have plenty of things working in their favor.
As seen in the chart below Wichita State owns a very good transition offense. As a team the Shockers are scoring 10.3 fast break points per game, shooting an incredible 90.0% from the floor overall while on the break. That is going to help offset any points scored by a fast-paced Memphis team that loves to get
out in transition
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Additionally, the Shockers are a very effective offense in the painted area, scoring 32.8 points per game and shooting 55.5% from that area of the floor. According to HoopMath 61.8% of Wichita State’s shots come at the rim, and as seen below Memphis surrenders a decent amount of shots at the rim and allows its opponents to shoot 54.7% on those shots. It’s likely we see Wichita State continue its dominance in the paint.
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All in all I think Kendric Davis potentially missing this matchup is all the reason to bet on Wichita State while the spread is still at three points, and even if Davis plays I think the Shockers will still be in good shape on their home floor.
As seen in the chart above from CBB Analytics Wichita State is in the 79th percentile in Defensive Rating, surrendering 100.3 points per 100 possessions. This team is very good defensively, and according to TeamRankings the Shockers rank 13th in the NCAA in Opponent Field Goal % (39.8%). That percentage falls even more when Wichita State plays at home, where it is holding its opponents to shooting just 38.7%.
I really like what Wichita State brings to the table, and I agree with the model that they can cover the spread here.
Model Predicts- Wichita State +3, OVER 146.5
The Play- Wichita State +3
