What if Donald Trump wins? A victory would be a stress test for Europe
In this series, the NZZ speculates on the consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency. This week: Will the EU find new strength, or will chaos break out in Brussels?Daniel Steinvorth, BrusselsMay 17, 2024 6 min
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«America first»: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at a campaign appearance in South Carolina in February.
Sam Wolfe / ReutersDonald Trump has never made a secret of his contempt for the European Union. It is a «foe» of the U.S., a «brutal trading partner,» and treats the U.S. «worse than China,» ranted the 45th American president during his time in office. It was «set up to take advantage of the U.S.» but would one day «break up» anyway.
His comments have not been forgotten in Brussels. Trump once called the Belgian capital, which is also the seat of the European institutions and NATO, a «hellhole.» Many diplomats and Eurocrats crossed themselves three times at having dodged a bullet when he left office at the beginning of 2021. Trump had started a trade war with the EU and threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. Trans-Atlantic relations were at an all-time low.
Eurosceptics rejoice
There were already conflicts between the partners on free trade and security policy long before Trump. With his callous demeanor, however, Trump was radically different from any of his predecessors. Former EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the NZZ that Trump notoriously distrusted his interlocutors: «He failed to see that collaboration with the Americans was part of our founding philosophy.»One of the reasons why no one in Brussels wanted to deal with the question of his reelection for a long time was that the principle of hope prevailed. However, it has long been clear that the return of the «great disrupter» to the White House is a distinct possibility – with potentially serious consequences for Europe. Experts expect new tariffs, tougher trade competition, a move away from NATO and a withdrawal from multilateral agreements.
But there are also Europeans who are longing for the Republican's comeback. Some right-wing skeptics of the EU see Trump as an ally in their fight for more national sovereignty and identity. Just recently, the so-called national conservatives held a conference in Brussels at which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban invoked Trump's reelection as a gain in freedom for Europe.
A key issue for the future trans-Atlantic relationship will be the behavior of the next American president toward Russia. Surprisingly, Congress recently approved new military aid for Ukraine – with Trump's approval. Nevertheless, Europe will not be able to rely on permanent American support for Kyiv.
What can the EU expect from a second Trump term in office if his isolationist and protectionist plans become reality? Would the association of states come together, or would centrifugal forces take hold in Brussels? Several scenarios are conceivable.
Scenario 1: Trump as the midwife of a defensive Europe
Trump has previously threatened NATO states that he accuses of «defaulting» with a cutoff of military assistance. The big difference today is that Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine, and Europeans have come to the realization that they are not prepared to defend themselves. Even though defense upgrades are now being implemented all over the continent, they are not enough. Conservative think tanks in the U.S. are pushing for the withdrawal or partial withdrawal of American troops from Europe. In the future, U.S. allies may only be able to count on Washington's nuclear umbrella («Sleeping NATO»).In this case, the Europeans would have no choice but to take conventional defense into their own hands. In an optimistic scenario for the EU, this could lead to a new wave of integration. The member states might interlock more closely in military terms, pool their capabilities and push ahead with joint armaments projects much more decisively. The EU could transform itself into a defense union – in addition to NATO, not as an alternative.
This development would likely be driven by France and Germany. France already has a robust defense capability and wants to consolidate its leading role in European defense. Germany is the largest and economically strongest member state and is particularly concerned about the stability of the EU. Poland would also be one of the military heavyweights due to its geographical location and security interests. A Europe with strong defense capabilities would also be taken seriously again by the U.S.
As a reminder, 2016 was the year of Trump's election and Brexit. But what followed was not the rise of factions promoting sovereignty and populism in Europe. The «Trump effect» failed to materialize. EU member states pulled together in the trade war with the U.S. Several shocks were overcome without any signs of disintegration. The EU is growing from its crises, experts say. This could also be the case after Trump's reelection.
