Short yardage offense -- statistical deep dive

ColliervilleRebel · 2024-12-02T13:37:27-0600

Long time, first time. Hotty Toddy!

Listening to today's pod got me curious about our short yardage offense vs. last year. Here's what I've found so far...

In SEC play this season, Ole Miss ran 72 plays with a down & distance of 3 yards or less (including goal-to-go situations).

57 (79%) were run plays, with a success rate of 60% (34/57). 15 (21%) were pass plays, with a success rate of 67% (10/15).

Running Game

Pegues -- 15 ... 73% success rate (11/15)
Bentley -- 12 ... 58% success rate (7/12)
Parrish -- 11 ... 55% success rate (5/11)
Dart -- 10 ... 50% success rate (5/10)
Thomas -- 5 ... 80% success rate (4/5)
Davis -- 2 ... 50% success rate (1/2)
Jones -- 1 ... 0% success rate (0/1)
Wells -- 1 ... 0% success rate (0/1)

When comparing yards needed vs. yards gained (YNvYG), Ole Miss, as a team, was +81 yards on the ground this season. 49 yards of that came from the long Bentley run vs. LSU...if you exclude that run, Ole Miss averaged 0.5 yards more than it needed on the other 56 runs of 3 yards or less. In fact, the only 3 players with a positive YNvYG for the season are Bentley (+54), Pegues (+26), and Thomas (+13).

Passing Game

Lee -- 4
Watkins -- 2
Harris -- 1
Prieskorn -- 1
Wright -- 1
Bentley -- 1

All completed passes were good for a first down with a YNvYG of +131 yards. Lee led the group with a YNvYG of +63 yards, followed by Bentley (+28) and Watkins (+23).

In short, when Ole Miss faced a down & distance of 3 yards or less, we ran the ball nearly 80% of the time and converted on 60% of those runs. The conversions, excluding one long run by Bentley, were by half a yard on average. When we chose to pass the ball, which was rare, we had a higher success rate and averaged 8 more yards than what was needed to gain a first down.

When I have some time I will dive into last year's numbers to see how they compare and update this post.

As I Lay Dying · 2024-12-02T14:17:42-0600